This is not one of those articles. The basketball world just saw Trayce Jackson-Davis follow up a strong outing against the Portland Trail Blazers with 29 minutes of shot-blocking, rebounding, rim-running excellence against the Boston Celtics on national television. So did his teammates and coaching staff; in postgame, Steve Kerr stated Jackson-Davis will be a consistent part of his rotation going forward, while Klay Thompson gave the rookie a new nickname:

Forget finding a role, Trayce Jackson-Davis just found one in front of the whole country.

So, I’m not exactly breaking news here. But in fairness, we tried to tell you. Our Charlie Cummings had this to say the day after the Dubs selected TJD late in the second round: “A clear path to a rotation spot, great value, and an experienced winning player on a cheap multi-year deal. What else could you want from the 57th pick?”

What was that clear path to a rotation spot Charlie identified so accurately? It started with Jackson-Davis being, by far, the most athletic Golden State big, the strongest interior presence on both ends of the court. Unlike the increasingly limited Kevon Looney and the perimeter-oriented Dario Šarić, TJD is a fearsome rim-runner, the first one the Warriors have employed in some time.

Not only is he an alley-oop partner for Chris Paul off the bench, but he’s already a consistent beneficiary of Steph Curry and Klay Thompson drawing two defenders (they tend to do that):

TJD is 6’9″ with a 7’1″ wingspan, can finish with either hand and has good but not extraterrestrial leaping ability. So, he’s not prime Dwight Howard, but he’s a legitimate threat. That’s more than enough when playing with the Splash Brothers.

See, we’re not totally past simple, positional math. Trayce plays the 5, so he’s guarded by the opposing 5, in this case Al Horford. When Trayce screens for Klay Thompson here, Horford jumps at the all-time great shooter, who hits his lefty big on a roll to the basket. The only thing that stands between the Warriors rookie and two points not a center, but Derrick White, one of the great rim-protecting guards the NBA has seen, but still just 6’4″. Jackson-Davis finishes right over the top:

TJD makes it look easy — and for him, it might be — but his fellow bigs aren’t able to take full advantage of the looks the Splash Bros create. Better yet, the lefty’s ability to finish at the rim may be the jelly to Golden State’s peanut butter, but the sandwich comes with a side.

On the very next possession, the Warriors flow into an identical action. Jackson-Davis hands it off to Thompson, who hits his rook right back on the roll. Derrick White is prepared though, and meets TJD with the proper respect, but it hardly matters because Jackson-Davis is already hitting a cutter for an easy layup:

This comes as no surprise, as the Indiana University product was dropping dimes consistently in Bloomington:

TJD’s lack of playing time to start the season infuriated many Warriors fans, and it’s easy to see why. The 23-year-old hasn’t exactly added many new skills, and his existing ones have translated predictably. In the words of excellent Warriors writer Joe Viray: “He’s a fundamentally sound screener who can make things immediately difficult for defenders at the point of attack; he’s nimble and mobile enough to force defenders to have to make quick decisions; his athleticism and above-the-rim capabilities make him a credible finishing threat.”

All of that was certainly on the pre-draft scouting report — and hey, it’s why the Warriors picked him — as Viray continues: “On a team that currently goes to the rim at the lowest rate among 30 teams…Jackson-Davis is an infusion of new possibilities the Warriors have yet to explore this season.”

TJD doesn’t have to be perfect to create the rim pressure the Dubs have been missing this season. And he’s not. He’s still learning how to time his rolls to the rim; on this one, a potential lob is erased because Jackson-Davis is simply too slow getting out of his screen and then doesn’t sprint to the rim…

…but his mere existence on the court makes up for the occasional rookie mistake. Jackson-Davis loves to sprint the floor in transition, and is tough for his matchups to keep up with. That creates a cascading effect here, where Horford lags behind the youngster, forcing Jayson Tatum to respect a rim-running threat. Thus, Tatum is poorly positioned to recover to Jonathan Kuminga, who catches the ball with an immediate advantage to drive to the rim (where he smokes a finger-roll):

This is TJD’s appeal, an ability to create pressure on the rim both in traditional settings, like your standard pick-and-roll, or in chaos: Golden State’s movement offense or transition. Hopefully, we see some more of this too:

The best part of that play? Jackson-Davis was slightly late in rotating over to the rim; Brown hit the paint before he did. Yet, “late for the help, early for the poster” did not apply here. Rim protectors are afforded leeway when they possess the athletic gifts Jackson-Davis does — a well-positioned rim protector who can’t jump is little more than an oversized traffic cone. Once again, TJD doesn’t have to be the perfect rookie to impact this Warriors roster; he just has to be himself.

Thanks to his fluidity at 6’9″, Jackson-Davis hasn’t just shown potential as a help-side rim protector, but when playing drop defense as well. His hips are much quicker, his feet much more nimble than his counterparts in Šarić and Looney, and thus, he can play closer to the level of the screen while giving up little on the back-end. He is not Brook Lopez, whose size and strength repel drivers from the rim and erase offensive-rebounding opportunities, nor is he Draymond Green, whose anticipation and hands allow him to play between two attackers seamlessly.

Yet, over the last two games, Jackson-Davis has made it clear he’s not going to bleed points as the last line of defense for the Dubs. Here, he meets deadly pull-up shooter Anfernee Simons outside the paint but is unmoved by Simons’ crossover, forcing the explosive guard to take a sweeping lefty hook, which DeAndre Ayton ultimately puts back:

This play results in another bucket, but the process and movement skills are undeniable. TJD meets Jayson Tatum at the arc, who throws an in-n-out at the young big. Jackson-Davis closes then opens his hips instantly to stick with Tatum, who burrows into his chest. Jackson-Davis remains straight up through the contact, not fouling and forcing a tough floater that bangs in off the backboard:

The rookie beats one of the NBA’s best drivers to the spot, avoids fouling, and contests a tough floater that really had little business falling. Jackson-Davis has put a lot of positives on tape in his last two games, seemingly earning him a spot in the rotation after 47 minutes of play resulted in 24 points, 21 boards, and four blocks on 11-16 shooting. Yet, that defensive rep on an MVP candidate might be the most telling play he made. This dude is going to be just fine.

The case for TJD the NBA Draft prospect was not hard to make. He could move, he could pass, he could score around the rim, and he displayed those qualities in spades during four seasons at Indiana. Unfortunately, the case against him was obvious as well, and 29 NBA teams bought it, some of them twice: 6’9″, couldn’t shoot, and four seasons at Indiana.

Yet, it’s that first batch of qualities that’s shining through in The Bay. Jackson-Davis is 6’9″, perhaps undersized for a big, but he’s a bouncy, active 6’9″ with long arms, ambidextrous finishing touch, and fearlessness as a shot-blocker. And hey, it doesn’t matter if you can’t shoot when your shots are dunks and layups.

Trayce Jackson-Davis fits like a glove on the Golden State Warriors. But that’s not news, is it?

The post Finding a Role: Trayce Jackson-Davis appeared first on Swish Theory.

Swish is here to help you, as we asked our contributors who impressed: who showed you something new, whether new moves or new tactics, new shooting form…what have you. We filtered through the mirages to find the tangible, items that just might remain relevant come regular season start.

Without further ado, here are Swish Theory’s Summer League 2023 takeaways.

Matt Powers – Shaedon Sharpe showed advanced feel for manipulation 

Pick and roll play is not a staple of Sharpe’s game, at least not up to this point, but Summer League was potentially an inflection point. Sharpe accumulated 36 pick and rolls in his four games, his nine per game five times higher than his rookie season. 

It was not simply the usage, however, but also the execution. Sharpe will still not be mistaken for a Nash-ian playmaker, at only 2.5 assists per game in Summer League after only 1.2 as a rookie, but advanced understanding of how to set up screens to deploy his own scoring speaks to his star upside regardless.

In the below Summer League clips we see Shaedon:

1. Wait to start his dribble until screen set, initiate with hang dribble then in-and-out to attack Kai Jones as rim protector
2. Jab to set up screen, hesi to set up re-screen, reject to attack Kai Jones as rim protector
3. Cross between the legs into using screen, gets skinny to reset into pull-up in one motion
4. Set up hand-off to then re-establish more favorable screen, wide open three

This variety of screen usage masks Sharpe’s intention between drive and pull-up, and when his and his screener’s defenders have to lock in more intently at the point of screen, Shaedon has the potential to draw in additional help with his supreme scoring gravity.

Sharpe’s assist rate skyrocketed from nearly non-existent to typical of a young scoring guard when Dame sat last year. Should he get even more leeway to create in the backcourt, Sharpe could continue to chain combos to become not just a deadly scorer but overall playmaker.

Lucas Kaplan – Leonard Miller willing to use size to his advantage

Leonard Miller might have the most interesting development path from the 2023 class to me. There is an idea, to which I’ve heard arguments both for and against, that he has outlier movement skills and a ceiling far more enticing, due to that trait, than a second-round draft slot would suggest.

I’m not here to debate just how special his fluidity is at 6’11 and 19 years old. No matter where you fall on Miller, though, that’s part of the sell. Our very own Avinash Chauhan wrote an excellent, pre-draft piece on the young Canadian and why we could be looking at a steal of the draft should he fall outside the lottery (which he did). One point made there was that an athlete this adaptable, this unique, should not be limited by factors of role projection – in other words, we shouldn’t force the limits of our own imagination on him.

Regardless, I’ll be fascinated to see if the processing ever fully unlocks Miller’s potential on both ends, a conundrum that was on full display in Las Vegas. Imagine Miller playing ‘Monkey in the Middle’, for example – his combination of size and athleticism would make him a nightmarish player to try to complete a pass over.

But take a play like this, where Miller is tasked with tagging the roller as the ‘low man’ on the weak-side:

You just don’t see any of those special movement skills or fierce athleticism that may eventually make him a devilish disruptor on defense. It’s a robotic slide over to the paint, then a basic closeout to the corner that is too late to prevent a clean 3-point look. Miller looks, respectfully, more like a YMCA coach showing how it’s down than a preternaturally gifted athlete.

Combine plays like that with holding the ball too long or missing cutters on offense, and his play from Summer League, to me, was fully representative of the MIller conundrum: In order to unlock what we know he is capable of, his basketball brain has to catch up to his body. I will be enthralled by this development in the coming years for Miller.

But as you may have guessed, given the prompt for this roundtable, Miller was often impressive in his minutes in Vegas. It wasn’t just the shot-making, though making seven threes in five games, as well as an array of mid-range shots, was a welcome sight. I was delighted to see Miller frequently use his size on the inside, aggressively posting up and sealing perceived mismatches in the lane. Now, again, this was Summer League, meaning a lack of offensive identity and, well, passing ability as a unit meant Miller’s Timberwolves teammates did not frequently get him the ball in these situations.

But becoming an efficient off-ball mover bodes well for those instincts I mentioned. And combine a willingness to post-up and rebound (the latter of which we know Miller can do) with potential shot-making from deep, and suddenly, Miller is the coveted offensive player who can play in a five-out offense or be the ‘one’ in a four-out, one-in offense.

Those were just two ultimately fruitless in which Miller tried to leverage his size into a good look at the rim, the first of which had some small part in creating a good look at the rim for a teammate, but the G-League Ignite product was relentless in Vegas. It was incredibly refreshing to see Leonard Miller, who may project as a big guard on offense, be so active and willing to use his size down low. That’ll make guarding him a whole lot more problematic for defenses. 

@BeyondTheRK – MarJon Beauchamp’s shooting touch, decision-making, scoring versatility

MarJon Beauchamp has looked like the best player on the floor in multiple Summer League games. MarJon’s feathery shooting touch, decisive decision-making, and smooth scoring versatility have stood out for the second-year Milwaukee Buck.

In game one, MarJon led a second-half comeback victory for Milwaukee, aided by strong defense from teammates like Andre Jackson’s double block possession. After a slower first half in his first game, MarJon took the keys to the car and revved the engine; Beauchamp rallied from a 2/9 start from the field to convert 7/9 FG in the second half, finishing with 23 PTS on 50% FG% and 8 boards, 2 assists, and 1 steal.

Moving at a more controlled pace, with deliberate footwork, fundamental post-moves, and tight handles to create his own shot from all three levels.

Countering pull-up jump shots with elbow fades and even a self alley-oop slam to open his second game. Somewhere off in the distance, wherever Tracy McGrady was in that moment, it’s nice to think T-Mac looked up, smiled, and nodded in approval.

In game two, Beauchamp stayed in rhythm from the game prior, scoring 20 PTS on 7/13 FG, racking up a block and steal, attempting 8 free throws after 5 the first game.

MarJon using his respected jumper to pump-fake and draw defenders in the air is a highly-aware veteran move to create the most efficient shot in basketball: free throws

Clean footwork, tight handles, good feel helped Marjon show complete body and ball control with the rock.

Beauchamp has made scoring look smooth and shooting look simple. He was purposeful in his decision-making, attacking the rack for soft touch AND1 finishes, looking to create shots for himself or kick the ball to the open man.

MarJon didn’t see much of a defined role or opportunity in his rookie season. Now with a new head coach, maybe a better fitting role in the rotation arises. It’s no secret Giannis, Brook, and Jrue could use another scoring valve in the halfcourt next to Middleton who gives the team another player who could go off on any given night.

This type of microwave scoring option who can heat up at any moment, score the ball from anywhere on the floor on or off the ball, and add team-first decision making and length to the equation provides a secondary scoring option rotation player, on paper a clean fit as a reserve who offers a tough shot-maker to potentially close games with the defensive-heavy Milwaukee Bucks starting unit.

AJ – Trayce Jackson-Davis’ passing ability, Warriors-style

Despite limited time in Summer League, Trayce Jackson-Davis was able to show what makes him such an intriguing fit with the Warriors. He displayed his usual explosiveness and activity around the rim on both ends, but the reads and quick decisions he flashed as a passer really stood out as well. 

Trayce not only demonstrated the ability to make the simple pass to keep the offense moving, but he had moments of brilliance and made passes that a vast majority of bigs aren’t capable of. One of his passes in particular was eerily reminiscent of another Warriors frontcourt player:

Overall Trayce’s athleticism as a roll man and ability to affect shots at the rim on the other end remain his greatest strengths, but it was very intriguing to see the passing pop as much as it did in his short stint in Vegas, especially knowing how much the Warriors value bigs that can read the floor and make decisions. 

Charlie – Lester Quiñones’ scoring and passing translating from the G-League

After a strong showing in Vegas, LQ might just be one of the best scorers not already in the NBA.

With the Sea Dubs last season, Quiñones posted the 12th highest PPG mark in the league, getting up 10 threes per 36 minutes at a 35% clip. He was used to handling a high scoring load, and did a fair amount of playmaking for the team. Not only did he manage the 2nd highest assist percentage on the team, he posted a strong 1.4 ATO for a score-first wing.

In Vegas, we saw the same strengths: prolific scoring (21.6 PPG, 1st among 5-game players), firing away from deep (9 attempts, ranking 3rd), and a solid base of playmaking (5.2 assists, 9th overall). What impressed the most was how he did it. LQ was very aggressive with getting two feet in the paint, showcasing a strong array of kickout and layoff pases to capitalize on rim pressure. The finishing wasn’t going well for him, but he drew the most free-throws (41) of any player in the tournament.

This is what caught my eyes the most about his stretch of play. The variety in his scoring gives a consistency to his game even when one aspect isn’t working. Without the threes falling, he still used his developing handle to put points on the board in other ways and continue to create pressure for others.

Quiñones has put himself in the conversation for the 14th roster spot, with a two-way certainly in hand. Even if he ends up spending another year in Santa Cruz, it looks like Golden State has found themselves a player in the undrafted Memphis wing.

Michael Neff – OTE alums performed well across the board

In my one-size-fits-all draft strategy article, I said I was fine letting other teams draft Amen and Ausar Thompson. I said this due to the enigmatic nature of their league, Overtime Elite. We had no idea how the Thompsons’ dominance in OTE would translate up to the next level; Dom Barlow’s garbage time and end-of-season tanking minutes were the only real sample we had going into the draft of an OTE player making it to the NBA. So, did dominance in OTE mean that stardom was in their future, or did it simply mean that you were good enough to stick in an NBA rotation? Was Ausar the next Andre Iguodala or the next Keon Johnson? Should Amen have dominated even more given his otherworldly athleticism? 

These questions were not meant to be flippant. Because there was some intriguing NCAA and G-League talent who offered quick avenues to positive contribution and high upside, I would have taken the wait and see approach with the Thompsons and OTE. I wasn’t a skeptic, just agnostic. 

But, as it turns out, OTE has prepared its players for the professional level. I know it is just Summer League, but I’m already more excited about these OTE players and the talent the league will produce in the coming years. Ausar Thompson really did look like prime Iggy out there, with a per game slashline of 13.5/9.8/3.5 to go along with two steals a game. His length, quickness, and anticipation were overwhelming defensively, and the dribbling and connective passing from OTE stuck around. Amen Thompson only played one game, but he looked like a top five athlete in basketball right now. 16 points, 4 rebounds, 5 assists, 3 steals, and 4 blocks in 28 minutes speaks for itself. No one could stay in front of Amen, and he picked the defense apart with his passing to a degree no one in the Rockets’ young core is close to emulating. 

The Thompsons were the headliners, but it wasn’t all about them. Dom Barlow seems to have built on his athleticism and added more skill to his game. He didn’t attempt any threes, but Barlow’s midrange jumper is looking better. He also averaged 2.0 assists to 1.3 turnovers. What I loved to see from Barlow was how functionally he used his athletic tools. There was a purpose and precision in his movements that I don’t remember seeing from him before. Barlow might have gone from a flash in the pan to a possible contributor for the Spurs moving forward. Even Jazian Gortman and Jaylen Martin, with the Bucks and Knicks respectively, had their moments. Gortman’s creation for himself and others looked strong, and Martin played quality defense and made good decisions for the Knicks.

It is too early to take any overarching lessons from the 2023 Draft. But, OTE already has me on high alert. Not only does OTE look like a viable development path, but a potentially very beneficial one of the right players. I will be keenly monitoring them going forward. Also, note to self: when two of the best passers and ball handlers in the class are also two of the best athletes in basketball, just put them high on your board.

The post ROUNDTABLE: Summer League 2023 Takeaways appeared first on Swish Theory.

I’ll also touch on my misses from last year, and how I hope to correct for shortcomings next cycle. Let’s waste no more time and dig in.

2023 Values

This section covers the players I ranked highest relative to the actual draft results, utilizing Kevin Pelton’s draft selection value table. Is there a common theme, am I missing or onto something?

Drafting with One Eye Closed

GG Jackson (my #12, drafted #45), Trayce Jackson-Davis (my #26, drafted #57), Leonard Miller (my #9, drafted #33), Jalen Slawson (my #28, drafted #54)

My biggest difference this cycle from last was trying to have a more holistic approach to a player’s own role curve. That is to say, comfort with a role (particularly in the NCAA) is not automatic, unlikely chosen by a player and often different than presented in recruiting efforts. College teams need players to win, development systems need player to develop, players just want to be selected as high as they can while balancing the goals of stakeholders around them. It can be messy, and often is.

The group I’m discussing here did not all have sub-optimal roles, but perhaps ones that masked their appeal as prospects, or distorted viewpoints of how they might contribute.

My single greatest difference to actual draft results was one Gregory Jackson the Second. At #12 on my board, Jackson was not selected until the second round by the Memphis Grizzlies. While rumors abound of immaturity from GG during team workouts, I’m less bothered given the substantial talent, obvious at his young age.

The most significant obstacle to draft analysis, in my view (beyond not knowing ball) is to make a one-to-one connection between items you notice and items of significance. Watching GG, it is not difficult to spot places where he could do better. Passing is the most obvious, often tunnel-visioned in his scoring approach, amplified at South Carolina by few other legitimate options but still clearly present in Summer League play as well. But if one were to ding Jackson for each and every missed pass, one might come away with a more negative view than is accurate in consideration of his star power, and that’s really what we’re here for.

It is more damaging to not take major swings than it is to have the occasional bust. If a player busts, his on-court impact simply goes to zero – there is a natural downside limit in that you’re not forced to give a player playing time, nor does it necessarily hurt your odds of acquiring more talent. But if he hits, and I mean truly hits, as in worth a max contract, that changes your franchise’s profile over a decade or more. This asymmetry runs up against basic human intuition: risk aversion means we are naturally suited to play it safe. But for that exact reason can be the source of extreme value in the NBA draft.

GG was third in usage of all freshmen as the youngest player in all of college basketball. He never looked overwhelmed athletically, consistently hitting the boards (17% defensive rebound rate) while using up a mega amount of iso (100), PNR (107) and spot up (143) possessions. Simply put, senior year HS aged players are not built like GG, not often. While a scout may see a sea of red marking up his execution on complex plays, he is able to put himself in those scenarios over and over with the flexible tank that is his hulking 6’9’’, 215 pound frame.

GG has a combination of traits I view highly in combination: when he has his nose in a play, he is determined to finish it (dawg factor); a frame to play power forward or small-ball center; the flexibility to get low into drives; an elite second jump; good shooting mechanics. Those are the traits of a scoring engine – as I put it in my scouting report of Jackson early in the season, “GG wants to be your team’s leading scorer,” and he has the mold for it. There are simply not many people in the world who have that combination of traits at an NBA level, and it takes two seconds watching GG move in Summer League to see how easily he belongs, physically.

Moving on to the rest of the group, the theme remains of swinging into uncertainty, where you have tangible evidence of NBA player-ness. By that last term I mean a collection of base skills that would be surprising to find in a non-NBA player. Let’s go through them quickly.

• Trayce Jackson-Davis: production, production and production; second jump; balance; sparks of creativity and touch at size
• Leonard Miller: dawg factor; production at age and competition; elite flexibility; sparks of creativity and touch at size
• Jalen Slawson: production and athletic versatility; team success; sparks of creativity and touch at size

The common trait for these remaining three is having some passing and some shooting touch but also defensive creativity, capable of picking up unexpected assists, steals or blocks in ways that took their opponents by surprise. Being two steps ahead of processing at lower levels, or even just hanging in at a higher level (in Miller’s case) is a good sign of being able to pick up NBA schemes, and the size of all three makes it easier to get the reps to showcase that. The flashes of touch and passing are simply compounding benefits as different areas of value on the court and expanding number of schemes in which they fit.

All four of the players here have role questions. “Can GG play off-ball?” (Summer League answer: yes); “Does Lenny fit cleanly into the 3, 4 or 5?” (Summer League answer: yes); “Can Trayce Jackson-Davis protect the rim as a 5?” (tbd); “Can Jalen Slawson shoot well enough to be a 3?” (tbd). But I also think these questions oversimplify what is a chaotic process in scouting. As Avinash said in his stellar Leonard Miller piece, “since when can we effectively project roles to begin with?”

That is not to say we shouldn’t try to project role, but we certainly shouldn’t let confusion in the exercise stop us from ranking a prospect highly.

I call this section “Drafting with One Eye Closed” as drafting is foremost an act of imagination, but that includes some willful optimism at times. The balance of cost relative to benefit of trying to make an unusual player work is lopsided, assuming the talent is indeed there. We draft players to try to alter the path of franchises, and the only way to do that is to try where others do not. Role occlusion, whether established upperclassmen or molds-of-clay youngsters, can be an opportunity masked by the same risk that drives people away.

To put the concept in more human terms, the game of basketball evolves in unexpected ways, and you need unexpected players to fit that evolving vision. The talent and effort side is the player’s job; fitting them onto the basketball court is the role of those around them.

Make Something Happen

Nick Smith Jr. (my #13, drafted #27), Amari Bailey (my #19, drafted #41), Sidy Cissoko (my #25, drafted #44)

Decision-making can be the most maddening NBA skill to dissect, making it all the more important in our evaluation of guards specifically. Guards typically survive on being nimbler, better handlers, shooters than their taller brethren, but this also means they have to make a greater number of decisions with or near the ball. If their decision-making is sound, they will make the product better, scheme running smoothly each time; if poor, the whole system can collapse. Repeat the process not once or a few times but dozens of times per game, thousands over a season. Despite having only middling 17% usage (7^th on his own team), Kyle Lowry still touched the ball over a thousand times in the 2023 playoffs, as an example. Whether or not a guard is a true lead initiator, they are going to be making countless decisions for your team.

Nick Smith Jr., Amari Bailey and Sidy Cissoko all make decisions in vastly different ways, which mixes differently for each of them with their differentiated skillsets. Sidy Cissoko is tall and strong for a guard but a poor shooter, Nick Smith Jr. is shorter and very skinny but a great shooter, Amari Bailey falls in between for all three traits.

Their playing cadences are vastly different, with NSJ being an elixir, playing like white blood cells seeking out weaknesses; Sidy is a maniac, unpredictable-squared; Amari Bailey is consistent in effort first and last. All are deviants from the expected in their own ways: given Nick Smith’s elite touch and handle creativity, one would expect him to be a pure hooper. Sidy one could easily cast aside as an unreliable project. Amari’s consistency of effort could prevent an analyst from noticing the flairs of upside.

My source of comfort in ranking them highly varies for each of them, as well. But it is consistent in one thing: the route-making of offensive schemes has always been a jagged line rather than a straight one. The ideal basketball play is a run to the basket and dunk, or run to the three point line and swish. But with the constancy of movement and ten athletes making decisions simultaneously, the way forward is rarely straight through.

This section is a dedication to the basketball weirdos, or irregularities in subtle ways. Amari Bailey may seem like the outlier in his inclusion, as Sidy and NSJ’s funkiness jump off the page. But Amari covers a ridiculous amount of ground as an athlete, both laterally and vertically, the type of athlete which would thrive as a cornerback or an outfielder or tennis player or…really anything. But Bailey plays subtly, workmanlike to the point of nearly hiding this fact. One is used to athletes of Bailey’s versatility taking up usage wherever they can, testing the limits of the dynamic fun that it must be to have those tools at one’s disposal. But Bailey, for whatever reason, does not seem to care about all of that, or else finds such enjoyment from applying them, not bluntly nor florid, but simply so. That aspect is maybe the easiest to look over: someone simply doing their job for its own sake. Especially in a freshman one-and-done, highly touted from a celebrity program. Don’t miss it with Amari.

Role Reducers: Priority UDFAs

Craig Porter Jr. (my #33), Adama Sanogo (#38), Terquavion Smith (#36), Justyn Mutts (#42), Ricky Council IV (#43), Taevion Kinsey (#45), D’Moi Hodge (#46)

Here we have a group of undrafted players I had ranked in my top 50. I’m not sure if there’s a common thread here beyond role players who I believe have a shot of being starters, even if miniscule.

All have their quick pitches as NBA role players: Porter Jr. makes sense as a defensive play-maker and creative passer next to a high usage guard. Sanogo if a team wants to run a five-out scheme on either end with a hybrid big. Terq is the obvious, nuclear pull-up shooting threat. Mutts is one of the best passing big wings in the country. Council had perhaps the best slashing tools in college hoops. Kinsey may be the most unusual, a stellar athlete ball custodian type with funky shot. D’Moi Hodge the cleanest role fit, and the most surprising undrafted for that reason as a steals & threes maven.

I mention the concept of “false ceiling” prospects, a term I coined to mean prospect commonly seen as low ceiling but with tougher-to-see avenues to outperform those expectations. I believe this entire group qualifies, let’s run through the list again. Porter Jr. does not make sense as a shotblocker, at 6’2’’ putting up a 5% block rate (one of every 20 opponent two pointers) while only fouling 2.3 times per 40(!!!). Sanogo has rare touch, shooting 77% at the rim on gigantic volume and above average everywhere else. Terq has become underrated as a passer, improving his A:TO from 1.2 to 1.9 and assist rate from 14% to 23%, all while shooting 14 threes per 100 possessions. Mutts is a rare breed, a strength-based wing with soft passing touch, perfect for motion-based, precise systems. Council’s athleticism shines in transition where he can improvise to the hoop for an acrobatic finish, at 1.2ppp on 114 transition attempts. Kinsey played in a lower conference, but that may mask his NBA athleticism, dunking over 200 times across his five college seasons. Hodge is underrated in his aggressiveness, with over 100 rim attempts finished at a 72% rate this past season.

The entire group are sophomores or older and non-premium selections as UDFAs, as it is safe to say you won’t build your team around this group. But if I were to bet on anyone undrafted ending up a useable starter at some point in their careers, it would be from this crew. The avenue to that happening has been laid out roughly in their previous spots, but amplified by further conforming to a reduced role and playing with greater talent around them.

Lessons of the Past

The 2022 draft cycle I spent obsessed with archetypes, attempting to break down the roles on the court into four: 1. Rim Protectors, 2. Connectors, 3. Shotmakers and 4. Engines. As I felt already by the time that draft day arrived, this approach had clear shortcomings. Prospects are not fully formed into their archetypes yet, and flashes of potential can be more important than fully fleshed out skills.

My three biggest misses all came from this too narrow of a sorting process. For Walker Kessler, I zoomed in too far on his inconsistent rim protection footwork technique, missing how he was blocking a gargantuan quantity of shots despite it due to advanced hand-eye coordination, size and effort. He also was able to quiet my mobility concerns by slimming down some, bringing us to another point of analysis: at the ages of prospects, they are still getting used to their athletic bodies.

Jalen Williams is another illustration of this, showcasing a major athletic leap from Santa Clara to the pros. The tape transformed almost overnight, as before when his closeouts lagged and he may have settled as a table-setter, now he looks a full power primary. The signal here was the Combine scrimmages, where J-Dub adapted to a more off-ball slashing role the second he hit the floor, using his plus wingspan to dunk in traffic with ease. The archetypes system over-fit for his Santa Clara role, not adaptive enough to appreciate his flashes of elite versatility.

Finally, a player I was too high on: Johnny Davis. At the risk of reacting too early, Johnny appears at the nexus of both of these points as well. From an archetype approach, JD is interesting. He was super physical in college, capable of some dribbling, passing, shooting, if not dominant anywhere. But he looked like he could carry a large load, and had enough clips of looking like a dynamic athlete, all the while fighting hard on the defensive end. The script has completely flipped between him and J-Dub, as Davis has been losing on the margins at the first line and without tools to salvage missteps. Where before he looked like a potential to hit in multiple archetypes, now he looks more like a mediocre prospect for each. The difference in athletic and skill profile from NCAA to NBA makes previous roles potentially untenable while also opening up new avenues for what were only flashes before.

Lessons for the Future

My goal this past cycle was to take a more holistic approach to a player’s basketball narrative. Where are they in their own cycle? A draft cycle involves only 6-8 months of new tape to indicate what a player might be for an entire career, and we need to imbue that with the appropriate lack of certainty. Imagination is the name of the game for draft work, something I’ve reminded myself constantly this past year, and helped me to be more comfortable with the one-eye-closed upside swings. Similarly, I have been keener to extrapolate those flashes out, as a player’s developmental trajectory can be as dynamic as their playing style.

The one item that remains elusive to me is projecting athletic profiles to the future. Already in Summer League I see a potential miss in Keyonte George, adapting quickly to weight loss with a more explosive playing style than we saw at Baylor or IMG. Athletic projection, again, a source of my miss on all of Kessler, J-Dub and (in the other direction) Johnny Davis, requires a technical level of biomechanical knowledge I have not attained. We have in our sights a theme for the 2024 cycle: how does the body develop amid intense athletic demands, and how can you tell who can incorporate these changes better than others? Stay tuned.

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Chris Paul is now in Golden State. Jordan Poole, Patrick Baldwin Jr., and Ryan Rollins are in Washington along with some protected picks. And now Golden State attempts to realign its timeline, starting with a draft in which they added three players in the first round, second, and undrafted free agency. Let’s take a deeper look into the three newest Warriors, and how they fit into the current roster.

Brandin Podziemski

It felt like all eyes were on this pick to get a true sense of how this new-look front office would operate. And they did not disappoint.

After a rough freshman season at Illinois, Brandin Podziemski transferred to Santa Clara after Jalen Williams made himself a lottery pick and left huge shoes to fill. Podz was equally dynamic in his own right: his 10.0 BPM mark was the second-highest amongst all underclassmen. Only Brandon Miller eclipsed that mark, the only college player drafted in the top 7 picks last night.

The method by which the Curly-Headed Assassin came into his production was unique for guards. He was far and away the most prolific rebounding guard in this draft (perhaps in several years), racking up a 21.0% defensive rebounding rate and 10.3 boards per 75 possessions. He’s a hustler on the defensive end through and through, and it jumps out on the tape.

I really enjoy the technical aspects of his defensive game. He’s not a shutdown guy on the perimeter by any means, but does a great job at keeping people in front of him, using his active hands for steals without fouling while breaking up passing lanes on and off the ball. Considering the kind of point-of-attack defenders that Golden State has, I think he can do a great job on secondary assignments and make a real impact off the ball with his nose for off-ball event creation and superior rebounding talent.

The offensive side of the ball is where Podz will shine. He’s lethal with the ball in his hands, possessing a great handle and touch with a knack for getting to his spots. Brandin can get to his step-back with ease, hit all kinds of funky floaters, and contort his body around the rim for tough finishes. Despite a high shooting volume from outside (41.3% on 5.8 attempts per game), Podz drew a strong 32.3 free throw rate and converts his trips to the line with regularity. The quickness, floor sense, and natural touch scream future three-level scorer with the potential for a truly elite perimeter and intermediate game.

Though the assist numbers weren’t gaudy with his role as an off-ball guard, he still managed to cross the 20% assist rate plateau with an array of strong passing looks. He is especially adept at layoff passes after drives, but can hit rollers from a variety of angles and make long skips with either hand. There is a true point guard in there, but Golden State would happily settle for plus playmaking from a combo spot given his shooting and driving talent. His ability to convert on passing windows was on display at some of the combine scrimmages against his fellow draftees:

With good size, athleticism, tons of natural touch, and savvy with the ball in his hands, Podz can be a big-time scorer in the league in due time. The major question for now is how he slots into this roster, and new GM Mike Dunleavy Jr. seemed to throw some cold water on him being handed any sort of role:

It’s worth noting Dunleavy also said Podziemski was “8-9 spots” higher on their board than 19th overall, so he clearly believes in him in a big way, especially with Jordan Poole going cross-country. Podz may enter the season no higher than fifth on the depth chart at guard, but with an aging and oft-injured Chris Paul in the fold, expect to see him on the floor plenty to fill in the gaps.

Trayce Jackson-Davis

Before the draft began, our role-projection model had a few fits labeled as “perfect”. Trayce Jackson-Davis to the Warriors was one of those perfect fits, and freshly minted GM Mike Dunleavy Jr. went and made it happen.

He fits like a glove into the Warriors’ offensive system. He has an outstanding handle for a true big, and shows great coordination in the post with a variety of body fakes and rip moves. If given a mismatch on the perimeter against slower centers, he could put the ball on the deck to get into the paint or make a kickout pass. He was doubled in the post at a 99th percentile frequency, and was not only able to continue scoring but involved his teammates at a high level.

Not only does he have a refined offensive game, but plenty of athleticism to boot. He’s not the most dynamic leaper but can load multiple jumps quickly to get quick dunks, lobs, and putbacks on the offensive glass. TJD posted an above-average rebounding rate on both ends of the floor in all four years at Indiana University, and the production on the glass reached absurd levels in his senior year with 13.7 rebounds per 75 minutes. If he is the rotational big behind Kevon Looney, they might not experience the drastic drop-off in rebounding numbers when the Loongod sits.

His skillset is very conducive to the DHOs, split actions, and short rolls that the Warriors love using their bigs for. He’s a refined screener and quick decision maker, but the passing really jumps out. In an offense filled with relocating shooters and baseline cutters, he can read the floor quickly to find the window and deliver an array of beautiful passes. I don’t think it is hyperbole to say Trayce Jackson-Davis will easily be the best passing big not named Draymond Green that Steve Kerr has had to use. Just watch the variety of reads he can make here:

This preternatural feel for the court will make him deadly on handoffs and pick-and-roll, especially given the bench unit. Chris Paul-TJD two-man game with Gary Payton II cutting and shooters like Podz and Moody on the wing? That’s how you keep an offense afloat when Steph Curry heads to the bench.

All this discussion about his offensive brilliance, and I have hardly mentioned he scored 25 points per 75 possessions across the last three seasons. The NCAA is a far friendlier environment for a guy like Trayce to get high usage, but there is more than enough reason to think he will be a plus scorer with his touch around the rim, strength, footwork, and touch out into the short midrange. He checks all the boxes the Warriors need offensively, and will be a seamless fit into the motion offense as a true 5.

Defense was a concern for any team trying to draft him, but the Warriors have been turning cents into dollars with their rim protection for years. They have posted back-to-back seasons with the top opponent rim field goal percentage with Kevon Looney and Draymond Green as the primary centers, and Jackson-Davis is taller than both of those guys. He has his athletic limitations, especially with lateral movement, but they can make drop bigs work with their personnel. Trayce has shown he can be a strong rotator and passable rim protector, and I’ve always liked how he positions himself to block and contest shots without costing himself valuable rebounding position. He’s even shown the occasional strong closeout in years past:

What happens on the bench wing spots is still up in the air, but Gary Payton II and Chris Paul will have the lion’s share of defensive possessions at the guard spots. GP2’s defense speaks for itself, and CP3 is smart enough not to put his bigs in avoidable defensive situations in the pick-and-roll. If he can control the restricted area, continue positive contribution on the glass, and occasionally show at the level of the screen to keep offenses honest, he won’t be a weak link in the defensive unit.

This was an absolute home run by the Warriors in my eyes. I had him listed as a high second-round buy in my draft day guide for Golden State, and had no expectation he would be available this late. A clear path to a rotation spot, great value, and an experienced winning player on a cheap multi-year deal. What else could you want from the 57th pick?

Javan Johnson

With Lester Quiñones set to graduate from the G-League soon after a massive season with the Santa Cruz Warriors, Javan Johnson should be another solid add to their developmental roster. If it’s buckets you need, buckets you will get from Javan.

A 24-year-old 5th-year senior, Johnson put up a strong season with DePaul (his third different CBB team) where he really found a groove. Initially miscast as a stretch forward, DePaul let Javan put the ball in his hands as much as possible and reaped the benefits.

He made 41.2% of his 6.0 threes attempted per game, 89% of which came in catch-and-shoot scenarios. At 6’6″-6’7″, he has a strong release point and quick, repeatable motion that evokes flashes of Isaiah Joe. When you’re sniffing around undrafted free agents, having one immediately translatable skill is a great starting point. He’s pretty good at using body fakes and cuts to open up shooting opportunities as well, and profiles as much more than a “stand there with your hands ready” kind of shooter. There are some signs as well that Javan could be more than a catch-and-shoot specialist.

It’s likely that the rim pressure game never gets there. Possessing middling handle and burst, Johnson was never a free-throw guy in college and it’s hard to imagine that getting better at the highest level. Yet Johnson has smooth footwork and touch, and showcases an ability to get into the midrange off the dribble or attacking closeouts. A one-level scorer is hard to translate, but a two-level scorer gives you a bit more meat on the bone. If teams have to respect the shot, chances will open up for 1-2 dribble pull-ups in the midrange, especially above drop when he is coming off screens.

On the defensive end, Johnson doesn’t profile as much of a wing stopper. He can make some technically sound plays but lacks the requisite foot speed and strength to stay with most scoring wings. However, he has shown some flashes in rotation, consistently posting a solid block rate for an off-ball wing. If he has to be hidden at the 4 spot defensively, that really puts a damper on his overall prospects to find an NBA niche.

But this is undrafted free agency; these guys don’t get to this stage without some flaws. It gives them another project in Santa Cruz with at least one pliable skill, and shooting specialists are always good to bet on for such a low risk (see Heat, Miami).

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