Well, this is a rare thing to discuss: a Warriors mid-level exception signing.
Golden State finally wound down its heinous tax bill with the departures of Klay Thompson and Chris Paul, opening up the full mid-level exception. With that exception, they began to rebuild this team by signing De’Anthony Melton to a 1-year $12.8M deal, the first of three key role player acquisitions. Golden State has not used the full MLE on a free agent signing since DeMarcus Cousins in 2018. I broke down the tape of all three players, and we will start by analyzing the fit of Mr. Melton.
Key Offensive Stats
Melton is part of the answer to a key question in Klay Thompson’s absence: who will take the above-the-break threes?
That Steph Curry guy had 52% of his total shots come from above-the-break threes. Thompson himself sat at 51%. The list after that is full of departures and question marks. The highest share of above-the-break threes amongst the returners comes from Moses Moody (31%), Brandin Podziemski (29%), Andrew Wiggins (23%), and Draymond Green (22%).
I use the term “returners” loosely because a few of those guys may have been traded by the time I finish typing this sentence.
*Advice: check your radar for any incoming Woj missiles at this time*
De’Anthony Melton sat at 45% last year, which would have made him the third-highest Warrior last season behind the recently divorced Splash Brothers. Melton also managed to can 38% of those looks, and 21% were unassisted to boot. For reference, Klay hit 39% with only 6% unassisted. By no means does that even put Melton in Thompson’s stratosphere of shooter, but you can see how Golden State is beginning to recreate him in the aggregate, Billy Beane style.
In another stroke of similarity to Klay, Melton isn’t much of a rim pressure guy. Per Cleaning the Glass, Melton managed a 56th-percentile mark of shots coming at the rim with a ghastly 6th-percentile finishing mark of 49%. The upshot of that is only 42% of his rim makes were assisted, a 92nd percentile mark, so he certainly can get himself to the cup (as we will explore soon).
Melton does possess a shot chart that makes you remember why he was drafted by Daryl Morey and subsequently acquired by Morey in Philadelphia:
The last important stats concern Melton’s playmaking. How you view the assist numbers is very position-dependent. CTG lists him as a wing, where his 14.2% assist percentage ranks in the 73rd percentile. If he were listed as a combo guard (where he was in all previous seasons), that would be a 20th percentile mark. Melton managed to take care of the ball with a 2.9 assist/turnover ratio, but the playmaking numbers at face value may be a tad misleading.
Now, it’s time to get into the tape.
Off-Ball Shooting
When off-ball, Melton prefers to be a stationary catch-and-shoot guy. He can sprinkle in some deep range out to 26-28 feet with his feet set.
I tracked 15 movement shots last season for Melton, and he managed to hit 6 of them. Though not commonplace, coach Nick Nurse would sprinkle in some movement sets for Melton’s shot.
You’ll see a few Warriors staple plays above. The first and third clips are strong pindowns (the third clip being a staggered variation) and the second is an elevator-style exit screen.
He may not have the movement shooting proficiency of Steph and Buddy Hield, but Melton’s presence ensures that the Warriors will have at least one guard on the floor capable of hitting a movement three. The ability to scheme these shots opens up a lot for a team that relies on movement shooting to set the table for the rest of the offense.
Perhaps more importantly, Melton has other ways of hitting difficult threes.
On-Ball Creation
By my hand tracking in the 2023/24 season, Melton shot 20/55 (36%) on pull-up/step-back threes. That’s a damn fine number for a guard you don’t expect to handle a major creation burden.
Do you want Melton pulling the early shot clock step-backs often? Probably not. Yet as constructed Golden State has only two serious on-ball creators in the backcourt. The burden that will be placed on Steph Curry and Brandin Podziemski will be massive. Having someone who can create a good enough look when the team is in a bind is a solid addition.
He’s certainly capable of creating a shot in isolation and likes to use dribble handoffs to get these shots. That would seem to be a glove-like fit for this Warriors offense.
I came away impressed with Melton’s sense of when rejecting a screen or dribble handoff creates an advantage. It’s a nice bonus to his game as a low-usage handler. Someone who can make the most of limited possessions to create quality perimeter shots will be a boon.
Unfortunately, the extent of Melton’s on-ball creation is limited to the perimeter.
I was not impressed with the drives I saw from Melton. As previously discussed, the rim frequency is fine, but the finishing numbers are godawful. A lot of this comes from an inability to make playmaking reads while heading downhill. There are times when it looked like Melton had Seabiscuit-level blinders on.
For someone with 6 years in the league, you’d think Melton would be able to find open teammates when a crowd is in front of his drives. Being 6’2″ and possessing a subpar finishing package would only encourage a kickout in theory. Yet Melton routinely throws himself into the trees with little plan and few results. That’s going to cause some headaches.
It is worth noting that a series of back injuries Melton dealt with last year, costing him 44 games, must have played a role in the rim finishing numbers cratering. A healthy De’Anthony should be able to revert from terrible to below average as a rim finisher, but a healthy back doesn’t suddenly make you see open reads on the drive.
Melton is fine as a playmaker when swinging the ball around on the perimeter, but these more advanced reads seem to escape him. His on-ball creation is primarily for himself and rarely happens within 15 feet of the basket. It is better than nothing but will leave some Warriors fans wanting more.
Role Fit
Ultimately, what you see is what you get in terms of Melton’s offensive role. In the simplest terms he profiles as a smaller Moses Moody. Solid off-ball shooter with a sprinkle of movement stuff and a bit more pull-up three shooting than you would expect. The playmaking lacks, the finishing is uninspired, and ultimately you’re left with a guard that is roughly 90% off-ball and 10% on.
It’s not a bad fit alongside a Steph or Podz and certainly good for a one-year free-agent acquisition. Melton has graded out between the 58th and 76th percentiles in O-EPM over the last four seasons, a perfectly respectable number for a guard that will have at most the third-highest on-ball creation burden of this guard group. Just don’t expect Melton to be some huge offensive boon.
Key Defensive Stats
Melton’s reputation in the league comes from his defense. No question about that. Just glancing at the stats, you see the profile of a serious difference-maker.
He’s got 3 stocks per 75 possessions for his career. One, two, three for a 6’2″ guard. Melton’s steal rate has been no lower than the 93rd percentile for his career, and his career-low 0.8% block rate last year is still a 78th percentile mark for guards. The defensive rebounding experienced a similar dip (69th percentile last year), uncharacteristic of someone who has been 80th percentile or better for his whole career.
As with the rim finishing dip, the litany of back injuries likely contributed to the decline in block and rebound numbers. Try jumping with a bad back once and you’ll forever have empathy for 2023-24 De’Anthony Melton. Even with his diminished physical state, Melton graded out in the 87th percentile in total D-EPM last season. That was his fifth straight season being 87th percentile or higher according to dunksandthrees.com.
The statistical results are noteworthy, but I’m more interested in the how. What makes Melton such a quality defender?
Screen Navigation
The tape screams veteran savvy. Melton takes incredible angles to get around screens in a variety of situations. Even in his injury-diminished state, De’Anthony found a way to keep himself in front of the ball with his exceptional sense of the right intercepting angle.
There were moments where Melton’s size and hampered explosion showed with screen deaths and instances of being hip jailed. That’s a part of the game if you’re a smaller guard. The main question is what kind of effort you show to get back in the play.
Golden State doesn’t possess elite rim protection or highly switchable bigs not named Draymond anymore. They need guards who can keep things in front of them on the perimeter and permit a higher frequency of drop coverage. Melton is that kind of player who, health permitting, allows them to get away with a lot of defensive coverages.
Isolation Containment
Holding up in isolation is a skill of dying importance, especially for higher-end defenders. Isolation is where you get attacked when your opponents see a mismatch. No screen, no chance to switch and make it someone else’s problem.
For De’Anthony Melton, bigger/stronger wings and guards will occasionally bring the isolation into play. They mistakenly believe his stature makes him a mismatch. That’s very much not the case.
The Warriors will run switch-heavy looks against a variety of teams. Melton showing the ability to wall off bigger players on the drive plays well into this scheme. Switch Melton off a guard onto a bigger screening wing and you won’t get burned.
Those quick hands and positional skills play a heavy role in his off-ball game as well.
Stock Generation
When on the ball, Melton is quite good at trail blocks and pilfering the ball at the point of attack. His ability to generate turnovers isn’t diminished when playing off the ball.
Nail help steals? Sure. Pinning a ballhandler to the baseline? Easy. Passing lane interceptions, deflections as a pick-and-roll helper, transition blocks, closeout strips: he can do it all.
Most elite on-ball defenders tend to diminish in impact when switched off the ball. Melton still finds ways to be effective in help, mainly by generating stocks. Not only is this important for the defense, but it’s also massive for the Warriors’ transition attack. Golden State was the worst transition scoring team in the league when combining frequency and efficiency. Someone who will generate defense-to-offense possessions is going to be a welcome sight.
Role Fit
Whether or not Melton starts will say a lot about the priorities of this team. In a bit of a transitory era, with new experienced assistant coaches and a crop of new role players after Klay Thompson’s departure, Melton vs. Hield vs. Podziemski for the starting two guard will speak volumes about their new direction.
If Podz starts, it indicates a desire to take pressure off Curry with a second ballhandler. Hield starting would indicate little has changed in the offensive vision by putting the closest facsimile to Klay alongside Steph. Melton starting interests me greatly, as he points to a more defensive-oriented direction.
Melton profiles as the primary defender of guard matchups, one who can fly around screens enforcing GSW’s usual drop coverage. A 2-3-4 of him, Andrew Wiggins, and Draymond Green are switching hell for opposing perimeter players, assuming all are healthy and engaged. And if teams go at Steph, Melton’s proficiency as a rotational defender and helper will prove to be a major asset.
Acquisition Grading
Grading the three big moves of this Warriors offseason is tricky because if Mike Dunleavy Jr. has his way, their offseason is not over.
Regardless, the Warriors managed to secure a quality rotation player without a multi-year commitment. The use of the mid-level exception made it cap-friendly. If Melton managed to stay healthy for 70+ games it should be a great move.
I’d give it a solid B+ because I would have liked to see a player with a bit more on-ball creation and rim pressure juice in his spot. However, if GSW manages to trade Gary Payton II and others now blocked in the rotation for a Lauri Markkanen or Collin Sexton type #2 offensive option, I’ll go ahead and give it an A.
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