The prodigal son returns.
Minutes before the deadline, the Warriors finalized a trade to bring Gary Payton II back to the Bay. This was made possible by moving James Wiseman to Detroit for a bevy of second-round picks while creating a $9M trade exception, all of which was then re-routed to Portland while folding GP2 into the trade exception created for the deal.
Let’s take a brief look at what this means for Golden State in both the short and long term.
Short Term: Adding Wing Defense for Free
Keeping Wiseman in the fold while letting GP2 walk in the offseason was a mistake, no dancing around that. To effectively undo that mistake at the deadline is a major coup for this team.
Details have yet to come out on the second-round picks changing hands, but they are minimal value for what Payton II brings to the table. If they traded their own picks while keeping the picks received from Atlanta to re-route Saddiq Bey, they may have ended up slightly asset-positive, which we will get into later. Wiseman wasn’t doing anything to help the team this year, so there’s no real loss there.
I surely don’t need to remind anyone how valuable of a role player Gary Payton II is, but here are just a few things.
Besides S-tier point-of-attack defense and solid help, GP2’s offensive utility is as strong as ever. After posting a 99th percentile 67.6 eFG%, he’s stayed at that level in his injury-limited start to the season with Portland. Going back to last season with Golden State, GP2 generated a quarter of his offense off of cuts, finishing 81% (!!!) of his looks. His transition frequency was ranked in the 92nd percentile per Synergy Stats, and this team has needed sorely leakout threats this year.
As a player operating out of the corner, he’s managed to hit 39.7% of his threes from the short area of the perimeter, in addition to his excellent cutting. Corner spacers aren’t the most valuable offensive players, but if you can make them pay for leaving you open and make backdoor cuts when they shade over too hard, value will be had. This is a home run on both ends of the floor, giving a solid outlet for their bench playmakers and taking defensive stress away from Donte DiVincenzo and Jordan Poole.
There are a couple off-court bonuses to boot: one, the Wiseman and front office hating crowd has to find another angle. No more crapping on the young guy for his subpar play, and it’s much harder to clown the front office for ignoring the needs of the core. Yes, it was a mistake to choose Wiseman and keep him this long. Get over it, and find real talking points. They brought back one of the crucial pieces to their title chase at minimal cost after months of doomer-ism.
The other bonus goes in favor of what the front office wanted all along:
That first figure improves the chances that they are active in the buyout market. The need to convert one of their two-way contract players is gone, and they retain an open roster spot to add a much-needed depth big once the trade dust settles. Dewayne Dedmon, anybody?
But that massive second figure leads to a crucial long-term objective.
Long Term: Helps Keep the Core Together
With Draymond Green approaching free agency, shaving $30M off the luxury tax bill has huge implications. Losing the best defender of a generation for Wiseman would have been a travesty. Now they can afford to hike up the salary again by keeping Draymond in the fold, assuming he doesn’t run into Rich Paul’s arms this offseason.
It could also improve their chances to retain Donte DiVincenzo in the offseason, who has been a steal of an addition on his two-year, $9.3M (the second year being a player option). Not only is the overall outlook of this team improved with GP2 in the fold, but it increases their ability to retain the core while upgrading at the margins.
They also came away from the deadline with all of their best prospects. Moses Moody, Patrick Baldwin Jr., and Jonathan Kuminga stick around and can be floated in the offseason for even more upgrades. With Jordan Poole’s extension kicking in next year, they can use him, their prospects, and their picks to go big-game hunting if they so desire. The added quality of depth on the wings also means they can afford to keep more of those guys around and see what they have without the dire necessity for ready-made players.
Of their current vets, Golden State retains the entire starting lineup plus Poole and GP2. That’s 7/8ths of their preferred playoff rotation right there, and a strong enough core to carry through the regular season doldrums. I fully buy Kuminga being able to step into the bench wing role, both in the short and long term, so you could argue the top 8 is sewn up. That drastically lessens the pressure on the young guys to contribute immediately. There are still developmental concerns, but that is secondary to keeping the contention window open.
In Short: Giddy the **** Up!
In one move, Golden State achieved both its short and long-term objectives while maintaining flexibility with the roster. The defense should be able to edge into the top 10 by the end of the regular season, an important benchmark to playoff contention. Save for Otto Porter Jr., they now have the entire rotation that led them to a championship last season, and you could argue the additions of Donte DiVincenzo and the defensive breakout from Kuminga more than make up for it in the aggregate.
Steph Curry’s injury is a tough storm to weather, but they have the horses needed for another deep run at the moment. If Golden State can maintain health over the last 27 games, who’s to say they can’t find themselves hoisting Larry for a fifth time?
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