The Denver Nuggets (specifically general manager Calvin Booth) made waves this offseason by being utterly indifferent to Bruce Brown‘s exit. This was followed by Vlatko Čančar tearing his left ACL at FIBA, who was a candidate to step into the now-vacant wing rotation spot. Instead of scrambling, the Nuggets remained confident in their internal development and have seen excellent early results from their other first-round pick in the 2022 draft: Peyton Watson.
I want to dig into some of the film to explore how Watson has become one of the premiere defensive event-creating forwards, along with quality perimeter stopping. There has also been an increasing sense of finding the offensive niche that I want to take a look at.
Defensive Event Creation
Oh boy, is this some fun stuff.
Peyton Watson paces the league amongst all qualifying forwards with a 3.8% block rate, improving from his 3.3% rate this past season (also a league-leading mark, albeit in 9 games). Not only does he rack up a hefty amount of swats, but he seems to do it in highlight-reel fashion every time.
For those counting at home, that’s three (3) blocks on Derrick Rose in a single possession. I labeled this clip “massive disrespect” in my files.
What impresses me the most about the blocks is the variety of situations they come in. Most come in trail defense; when he loses a step on a driver, he’s never truly out of the play.
Watson also has a knack for making the right rotations after a ballhandler has committed to the drive, using his ridiculous length to erase shots:
Jamal Murray gets beaten handily on the drive by Russell, so Watson fully commits off Gabe Vincent, gambling that D-Lo won’t make the wrap pass back to the perimeter. Finding the ball at the absolute apex, he sends a gift into the crowd. That’s outstanding awareness to pick up his teammate.
Peyton also has a penchant for ridiculous recovery blocks, especially in transition. Once again, he victimizes Derrick Rose, flying back into the play with the speed and explosion of a panther:
Getting put in a help position on a Luka Dončić? Not a problem for Wats:
The patience to wait out the drag-step and still meet the shot at the apex is so, so impressive.
How about a transition 2v1 block for the road, as Peyton does his best Draymond Green impression?
It feels like he manages to meet every shot at the exact right moment. That kind of awareness for a player with 18 career games cannot be taught.
Watson being a shot-blocking threat both on and off the ball is a huge boon for this Denver defense. You might have him beat on the perimeter, but he will still find a way back into the play. You can beat his teammates on the drive, but he will get there and affect your shot. Considering how many subpar perimeter defenders are in Denver’s rotation (especially the starting lineup), Watson has an important ability to plug up the holes they create.
His steal rate is also 80th percentile amongst forwards through the first tenth of this season, showing a solid dig/tag ability to get strips. I came away impressed with his ability to anticipate passes and break them up as they arrive, as you can see below:
Watson has incredible strength, often using that to his advantage in help. Jevon Carter is no slouch when it comes to his strength, but Peyton looks like he’s bullying a middle schooler on this play:
He also has a knack for creating steals on the ball, which we will explore in our next category.
Perimeter Stopping
Though still working on general technique, Watson’s strength and lateral athleticism give him plenty of room to make up for that. He has a few distinctive plays when watching the tape where he purely overwhelms the ballhandler with his strength:
There weren’t a ton of standout technique-based perimeter stops that caught my eye, but this one in particular on Vasilije Micić showed a lot of the goods:
The quick hip flips and foot speed, the hand placement, and how low he gets to increase his mobility. That is the sort of technical skill that will turn him into an elite perimeter stopper in the coming years. I’m very excited to see him put more pure stopping tape on this year, but already teams are learning that it’s wise to just avoid him entirely if they can help it.
Here’s a play that I think well-summarizes the technique being a step behind his athleticism: trying too hard to force Kyrie left, he still gives an opportunity to reject the screen and go back to the right.
You can see how athleticism helps to bridge the gap. He closes down all of the space Irving gains on the drive, and makes it a tough layup attempt with the help arriving. Soon, when the technical aspects catch up, he’ll have to make these plays less often. It’s good knowing he can make them when needed though.
Filling in Gaps
This is where I’m waiting for some improvement from Peyton. He’s a pretty middling rebounder (38th percentile amongst forwards) and generally inconsistent with his rotations and positioning. It’s great that the explosive impact plays are there already, but the learning from Peyton will come in terms of general court awareness, when to crash the glass, where to be, and at what times.
It’s not going to happen overnight, but he has as strong of a base as any for exponential defensive growth.
Now, let’s see how Watson has figured some things out on the offensive side of the ball.
Corner-Based Offense
Watson for the moment is your classic low-usage off-ball wing. Operating out of the corners (predominantly the left), his job is to shoot when open and make slashing/cutting reads based on how the defense plays him. It’s not glamorous, but it’s honest work.
His shot chart, per Cleaning The Glass, gives a better idea of what that usage looks like:
He’s still struggling to make the shots needed from the perimeter (2/8 from the corners, 3/11 above-the-break) but it’s what he can do with or without the shooting that intrigues me.
Teams are largely going to forget him in the corners, but he will still draw a closeout from time to time. Defenders aren’t perfect; when split-second decisions have to be made, sometimes you see a guy in the corner and want to close him down. And when that happens, Peyton knows how to take advantage.
Jaden Hardy is stashed on Watson, and instinctively closes him down in the corner, opening up a chance for the drive. Josh Green makes a great rotation to draw the charge, but Watson side-steps just enough to avoid the contact and finds Nikola Jokić filling the lane for the bucket. That’s an awesome chain of decisions in quick succession: driving the closeout, avoiding the charge, and finding the open man.
On the more basic side of things, Peyton can leverage that same athleticism and length on the closeout attack to draw contact on the rim, even if he’s not the most adept finisher:
Teams often stash Watson on their roamers, which was especially evident against the Thunder and Chet Holmgren. Even with all of Chet’s length, Watson’s athleticism is tough to contain.
He’s got the coordination to stay tight to the baseline, and again seeing the athleticism pop with the reverse slam that not many NBA guys can pull off.
If teams get REALLY lazy with who they try to stash on Watson, he’s shown enough chops on the drive to make bigger, slower guys pay for it:
This is a nice bit of functional athleticism to boot: avoids the travel by slowing his drive, then kicks out to the open shooter. He’s not exactly a dazzling playmaker, but you can see the potential to make some solid reads off the drive.
Watson already having sufficient skill to make plays out of corner drives and closeout attacks is a huge boon. It’s a cliche at this point for off-ball players, but the lethality of his perimeter shot will define a lot of his growth in these areas. If teams let him shoot and he continues to be in the mid to high 20s, opportunities like the ones above will be few and far between. But every percentage point he can raise that shot will only add more to his potential as a driver.
Cut/Fill Synergy with Nikola
This stuff really excites me about Watson’s long-term offensive potential in Denver. With a player like him on the floor next to Jokić, teams are going to send hard doubles at the two-time MVP and force others to beat them. Watson has shown a good sense of when to make himself available, especially by cutting into open space:
He fills the space abandoned by John Collins as Jokić spins out of one double and into another, leading to an easy basket. These kinds of simple reads will be made available to him when playing alongside the Joker, and you know the man from Sombor is going to find him.
It’s much of the same coming out of Jokić rolls. The defense is going to collapse at all costs to prevent Joker from getting into a clean roll, so it’s up to guys like Watson to make themselves available by cutting out of the corners and taking advantage of an empty weak side as you see here:
Similar cuts will also be available off the drives of his teammates, and you can once again see how Watson recognizes opportunities to fill the space given to him for easy baskets:
Considering the attention that teammates like Jokic and Murray will consistently be drawing, Watson’s cutting and filling will be heavily rewarded if he can keep this kind of timing up. Of course, his finishing around the rim shouldn’t be forgotten as a skill; an 80% mark on the season is nothing to sneeze at.
Leakout Specialist
The last component of Watson’s offensive repertoire (at the moment) is the transition running. It’s also the most tied to his defense. Watson can run out after shot contests, rotations, or even after creating steals/blocks. This is another way for Peyton to create offensive value in his low-usage role, because he can gallop like a thoroughbred in the open floor and put his ridiculous athleticism on display.
It doesn’t hurt to have the best passer in the league running these breaks, but that shouldn’t take away from the good Watson does by filling lanes and making himself available for easy finishes. Jokić is constantly on the hunt for leakout passes, and it’s up to players like Peyton to make the runs needed.
Overall, I’m maintaining cautious optimism about Watson’s offensive game. He knows how to find gaps, when to leak out, and shows strong coordination and power in his finishes. Even if the shot doesn’t come around, he will find a way to make his impact felt. For now, Denver is going to have to find a way to build lineups around him that can bring enough offensive talent to make up for his deficits. Their offense is -17.7 points per 100 possessions worse with him on the floor, and that’s not entirely on Peyton: Denver has the kind of offensive talent to make up for that gap.
Potential For More
With such limited available tape and play experience on Watson’s part, it is hard to predict where his overall ceiling lies. It’s clear that he has All-Defensive kind of upside if he can maintain consistent minutes, but much of that falls back on the offense. Can he develop skills beyond cutting and closeout attacking to stay on the floor?
Denver is the right environment to bolster his overall potential, and the minutes are there for the taking. I’ll be watching him closely throughout the season, excited to see what Peyton Watson has in store for us.
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