Star Wars has the shameful second and third trilogies (Revenge of the Sith exempt here). Jurassic Park has created a lot of slop. Ghostbusters continues to churn out garbage. The Matrix creators decided a fourth movie was necessary for whatever reason. All devoid of the original magic that made them great.

The Terminator franchise is the most apt when I think about the current Warriors. The first movie was fantastic, something new the masses had yet to experience, much like the 2015 Warriors. They somehow came out stronger with T2, akin to the KD-era title teams. T3 was not as good as the first two, yet they managed to pull it off like the plucky 2022 Dubs.

Then the rebooting began, and the magic was lost. Terminator: Salvation still had their Steph Curry equivalent in Christian Bale, yet everything else failed to live up. Chris Paul did his best Sam Worthington impression, utterly without lift. Bryce Dallas Howard mailed it in like Andrew Wiggins, which I suppose makes The Village her 2022 Wiggins playoff run?

Like the IP holders of the Terminator franchise, the Warriors are faced with a choice: do we keep making the same movie and hope for a different result? Or try something new and reap the potential rewards?

The Crossroads

We’ve all seen the stories by now. Steph wants a winning situation. Klay Thompson is a free agent with suspected suitors. Draymond Green is under contract, but the patience may have run out.

It’s not as hopeless as many would make it out to be. The fans of the other 29 teams have been waiting to ring the death bell of the Warriors for some time. They tried to ring it once before, and that didn’t pan out. But even if the title hopes are gone, this team still has some meat on the bone.

Assuming the core trio stays together, the predictable outcome, GM Mike Dunleavy Jr. has things to work with. Chris Paul, Andrew Wiggins, Gary Payton II, and Kevon Looney have all made themselves expendable. That’s over $73 million that can be moved. Paul’s $30M is completely non-guaranteed, and Looney only has 3 of his $8M guaranteed, making them ideal expiring contracts to move. Wiggins is a tougher sell with one more year at $28.2M, but the right tanking team won’t mind.

I hope for Andrew’s sake that he can continue to cash the checks while spending the time with his family that he needs in these difficult past couple of years.

They’re also possessed with strong trade incentives to go with the salary. They can move at least two first-round picks with Jonathan Kuminga, Moses Moody, and even Brandin Podziemski or Trayce Jackson-Davis if they so desire. I’m not advocating for one deal or another. The point is that options are out there.

The Desired Path

I think I can speak for most Warriors fans in saying the last thing we want to see is the core being shattered this offseason. The chance of returning to a higher contending status is narrow, but it exists. The right trades and use of cap space could see them recover some of the old magic, and title #5 or no we’d all like to see them give it another try.

Equally disastrous as the nuclear option would be to continue chugging along with the current formula. Trotting out the old IP like a lazy studio executive. Make moves on the fringes, use all the draft picks to add more inexperienced talent, and continue to be content with mediocrity. That would be the path that takes a Steph trade decision out of their hands.

Retain the core. Be aggressive with trades and free agency. The rarest thing in basketball is to have a core this accomplished that starts and ends their careers together, and the fans would love to see it happen. It’s something we may never see again in the league. Riding off into the sunset with a whimper would be devastating. The front office must give them a chance to go out on their shield. Hopefully, this soul-crushing end to the season gives them the motivation needed to do so.

Let’s get something new and imaginative to put a bow on this. Don’t have next season be your Terminator: Genisys.

The post The Rebooting of the Warriors appeared first on Swish Theory.

No, it’s not “fire Kerr”, “trade Klay”, “European bigs” or “affordable housing”. It’s two timelines.

We know it didn’t work. The youth gave a minimal boost at best to the 2022 championship team, and the sheer volume of developmental roster spots arguably cratered the 2022-23 season. Trades were made, roster spots were consolidated, but still, the Warriors struggled to get production from the youth.

This season marks a turning point, all from the back of one man. Jonathan Kuminga‘s breakout as a legitimate second scoring option. That breakout stems from one word: drive.

I wanted to explore what has…driven this breakout, the only way I know how: watching every drive of Jonathan Kuminga’s career and tracking his development in four key areas: handling, finishing craft, midrange counters, and creating for teammates. I’ll work through each category in chronological order, starting from his rookie year up until the present day. So, let’s get going.

Handling

If you watched rookie year Kuminga, you can probably guess where this starts.

He was legitimately one of the worst handlers I’ve seen. Dribbling off his foot, failing to read help, losing the ball when the momentum got away from him. All that could go wrong did go wrong.

The turnover numbers certainly could have been worse: his 7.2% turnover rate on drives was in the range of James Harden, LeBron James, Luka Doncic, and many other stars. It’s the context of the turnovers that hurts: Kuminga was a low pass percentage player on the drive, and wasn’t creating a lot of offense for himself either. One turnover for every 4 baskets made is not ideal.

He had one handle play he could count on: the spin move. It was the one thing he had some semblance of control over, and he used it so often it would make Pascal Siakam blush.

You can see the flashes of advantage creation with his handle. Driving with the intent to draw help and spin away is huge, and he thrived while doing it at full speed. These were still simple reads and handle plays on the whole, and it wasn’t all sunshine and roses when he went into the spin cycle:

The slow spins were pretty rough. He failed to create advantages and was often trapped into bad shots or turnovers. Even with the majority of the spin results being positive, one good move does not a solid driver make.

Beyond the spins, most of his handle successes were 2-3 dribbles in a straight drive. There’s something to be said for a lack of wasted movement, but when that’s just about all you can do, it’s concerning.

But I did want to note one particular play, a foreshadowing of sorts for his handle development:

That body control and awareness combination – a running stop without traveling AND the well-timed fake – was a small sign of what was to come.

Moving to his sophomore season, his bag of tricks grew exponentially. To be sure, he still used the spin move to a high degree:

You can see the development in his methods with the spin. Incorporating fakes, changes of pace, a drop step on the finish. All of this requires a higher level of footwork and ball control in addition to the fast processing speed as he reads the defense.

Other tendencies remained. His propensity for travels contributed to an increased turnover rate on the drive, up 2.1% from his rookie season:

Despite this, the good in his handling started to outweigh the bad. Kuminga began to challenge himself, chaining multiple moves to create better advantages while cutting down on the careless lost ball turnovers. He created an impressive set of dribbling highlights in comparison to what he produced in that first season.

There were still the “oh no” moments, to be sure, but they were fewer and further between.

It’s also worth noting that the quality of his straight-line drives increased. He powered through digs and nail help, even bigs being placed on him, to get the looks he wanted.

With the handle tightening up, we got to see more of his power/speed combination on display. Put too slow or too weak of a wing/forward on him and he can dust them. Put a big on him daring him to shoot, he goes right around them. It’s the beginning of a serious defensive conundrum; all he needs is to add consistency.

Year three brought that longed-after handle consistency. Chaining moves, mixing up his looks and speeds, and keeping the handle-based turnovers way down.

The sheer volume of unguardable drives also increased. He began to exert his will over opposing defenders, some of whom are known for their defense:

There are still issues, to be sure. He has cut down on the travels this season but they remain, and he’ll lose his handle from time to time or have a rough gather affect his finish.

The development in this department cannot be ignored. He went from simple 2-3 dribble drives and constant, predictable spin moves to move combinations, maintaining balance with good footwork, and manipulating defenders with his dribble. By and large, Kuminga will be able to physically overwhelm defenders with his athletic tools. There will be situations where more advanced dribbling is called for to create advantages, and he is beginning to seize those opportunities.

Getting yourself to the rim is one thing. What happens when he gets there?

Finishing Craft

This is another area in which Kuminga has grown by leaps and bounds. Much like his rookie-year handling, the finishing was generally ugly and inconsistent.

Jumping off the wrong foot, using the wrong hand, not aligning himself into the shot leading to bad mechanics. A lot of major red flags. It only got uglier when he tried more complex footwork patterns in his finishing, like drop steps or drag steps.

Finishing with the left was a clear issue. Too often he tried to force it with his right hand in situations that called for the left or tried to adjust a drive to get to his right when the left presented the better option. But he did have some solid flashes with his right, showcasing a baseline level of coordination on the move.

Kuminga managed a solid 58.4% finishing rate on his drives, but if anything this was a reflection of how easy the majority of his drives were. 2-3 dribbles and a dunk were prevalent outcomes, especially when considering the bigs or slower wings that were tasked with guarding him. It’s not to take away from his skill – excelling at the easy stuff is important – but it left lots of wanting.

Going into his sophomore season, the finishing numbers dropped tremendously to 51.3%. This, however, is not an indication of a decline in finishing skill. It was a sign of pushing harder to get tough finishes.

The volume of his straight-line drives went down, replaced with tougher finishing angles after more complex dribble moves. As covered earlier, his turnover rate also rose during this season – another confirmation of the increased difficulty present in the film.

In a strange twist, the disparity between his righty and lefty finishing grew larger – in favor of the left. He displayed a lot of good touch with the left throughout the season:

A greater control over his body was leading to better results. His momentum was contained, he could pick better angles off the glass, and slow himself just enough to get soft finishes instead of clunkers.

It was the strong hand finishes dragging him down. Some of this was a product of the defense; at times they would dare him to finish left in single coverage, but sent major weak side help if he managed to penetrate the paint going right:

A major part of that increased difficulty on his drives was the increase in finishing moves he applied. Instead of spamming the spin button repeatedly, Kuminga mixed a healthy set of drop steps, drag steps, pump fakes and hesitation moves to unsettle his defenders.

Of course, some spins were still mixed in.

You’re probably wondering “Hey, this all looks great, but why the drastic drop in production?”. Well, there were a LOT of finishes that didn’t quite work out despite his best efforts.

What was important to me was that he was trying things. Development isn’t a process of doing the same things over and over until they’re perfect. Development is polishing those things that are good while working on those that are bad. So, you have to power through a LOT of bad to get to the good.

This process of trying things led to another important development: serious foul-drawing potential. With Kuminga putting together more consistent drives and drawing the attention of the defense, on-ball and help defenders alike chose to hack him down instead of allowing a finish. For the second straight season, Kuminga finished tops on the deal in percentage of fouls on the drive amongst rotation players with more than 2 drives per game.

Those final two clips are the most important to me. Pressing an advantage on a line drive and getting hacked is one thing. Using fakes and hesitations to get defenders off-balance or in the air and forcing the contact? That’s an important tool in the bag of an elite driver.

Now that we’ve seen the increase in difficult finishing tries and foul-drawing techniques, let’s see how he has put it together this season.

In the current season, Kuminga has risen to new heights of efficiency mixed with increased difficulty. His 57% finishing mark on the drive is not only a 6% increase from the previous season, but it also leads all Warriors players who get at least one drive per game. He’s also second on the team in personal fouls drawn per drive, with only Dario Saric beating him there.

Another important mark is the rise of his right-handed finishing. It jumped over 6% to sit at 50% for the year, nearly equaling his 51% mark with the left. It’s been great to see him power through increased defensive help on his stronger side and convert tough finishes.

Kuminga’s growing awareness has led to better finishing outcomes in many ways. His quick floor reads have led to an increase in “catch and go” possessions, where JK scans the floor to see an opportunity to drive off the catch and poises himself to take off as soon as the ball hits his hands. That gives extra fractions of a second before his defenders can turn to contain the drive.

It’s all coming together from a finishing and foul-drawing standpoint. You can see the complex moves to draw contact mixed with tough finishes:

His points percentage on the drive has reflected this. His rookie season, full of easy line drives, recorded a 77.4% mark. That dipped to 60.2% in his sophomore year, yet another reflection of the increased difficulty and defensive attention he garnered. Now, with all of those strenuous factors still at play, he has risen back to 77.2%.

To put that in context, 116 players in the league match or exceed his mark of 5.6 drives per game. Kuminga places ninth of all those players. Here’s a snapshot of who has him beat:

That’s your last 3 MVPs, another former MVP, and a whole bunch of All-NBA/All-Star players in front (Alpie, you were robbed!). I’d say that’s good company.

We covered the development in his handle, and the finishing has risen to match it. He went from struggling with complex dribbles and finishes to pulling them off with relative ease in only two years. Now he finds himself as one of the elite players at generating points off the drive.

But there is more to this than how you get to the rim, or what happens when you get there.

Midrange Counters

This has always been a very important aspect of driving to me, even if less so for wings/bigs.

Once a player gets past the three-point line on a drive, there are essentially three ways it can go: rim attempt, midrange attempt, or pass attempt. Knowing what the driving player is capable of dictates how the defense will play them. If only a rim attempt is likely, the whole defense will load up the paint. The midrange as a counter move can buy extra time for the driver to read the help. It also offers an alternative to the rim if the paint is loaded and no passing options are available.

(We will get to the importance of the passing aspect later; don’t fret.)

I don’t think it is reductive to say Jonathan Kuminga is a rim-first driver. He should be, in all honesty; what midrange attempt or kickout pass brings more value than a guy finishing 75% of his rim looks? But if that’s the *only* thing he threatens to do off the drive, it makes things quite difficult to generate those shots. Therefore the midrange is a necessity for the development of his rim pressure.

You could probably guess that the midrange was a bit ugly in his rookie season. Results were poor overall – 34% in the short midrange (26th percentile) and 5/11 on long twos. To be sure, there were some decent-looking possessions and he had confidence in his shot:

Ugliness was the dominant result, however, especially when it came to floaters. He simply did not have the touch for one-handed shots on the move, and the majority of his movement twos looked similar:

But the signs of life were there. He was willing to try and understood to some degree that a balance between the rim and the midrange had to be found. Even without good results, Kuminga rated in the 42nd percentile of midrange frequency in that rookie season. It was a threat, but not a convincing one. Compared to his rim looks, the midrange was a dull knife next to a katana.

The knife was sharpened a bit during his sophomore year. The confidence remained and the results looked a bit better; his short midrange jumped up 9 points to 43%, a 58th percentile mark. A rise in frequency was a welcome sign to boot – midrange shots went from a 24% to 29% share of his total shot profile, while three-point attempts dropped. Increased volume and efficiency is tough to pull off for *any* shot type, but especially the midrange since they are nearly all self-created.

He especially got comfortable with the turnaround over his right shoulder. It was an easily repeatable and often available shot. Kuminga seemed to be more settled physically when shooting the midrange; it felt less forced and more mechanically sound. This led to more soft-touch rolls on his shots, contributing to better results.

However, the floater still refused to come along for the ride. There were makes, but they looked awkward and with poor footwork/body alignment. The vast majority of the looks ended up looking like this:

Still, he tried much harder for those shots. Floater attempts became a bigger part of his game. He was on a similar track to his rookie season: take a lot of attempts and process the failures to deliver better results later on. He wasn’t just missing shots, he was collecting data in the process.

Now, the current season. Once again we see a huge jump in frequency, this time from 29% to 36%. That is an 86th percentile frequency amongst all wings. Paired with his 85th percentile rim frequency, you’re now looking at a player seeking to dominate at the first two levels.

Another important development in frequency is the number of long twos. 11 attempts in his rookie year were followed by 20 in his sophomore season. You could call it an increase, but at that level, it could have been a simple scaling up in shot attempts. He’s up to 38 attempts in this current season and still has 29 games left to add to it. Now we have a trend.

He took major steps in the variety of his midrange looks as well while seeing comparable success in terms of his makes (42% last year to 43% this year). There was a lot more variety beyond the right shoulder turnaround. He could comfortably pull up left and right, use the step-back, put defenders in jail, turnaround left, whatever you wanted.

It’s becoming a thing of beauty. He’s mixing increased volume, solid efficiency, and a deepening arsenal of moves to greatly advance his scoring profile.

Here’s a snapshot of forwards that can match Kuminga’s midrange frequency (35+%) and efficiency (43+%) with more than 200 midrange attempts: Kevin Durant, DeMar DeRozan, Tobias Harris, Paul George, Jimmy Butler, Julius Randle, and Mikal Bridges. That’s some damn good company for midrange success.

This success has enabled him to add further layers: drawing/baiting fouls in the midrange, using pump fakes and step-throughs to get himself to the line.

It never hurts to snatch some reliable points by getting your defender up in the air. His processing speed has grown by leaps and bounds in so many respects this season.

In addition to the massive gains in his midrange success, the floater showed real signs of life:

The additional confidence (and success) with his floater has done a lot for his midrange success, especially around the restricted area. Not only does it enable his short midrange frequency, but boosts the array of moves he can pull to keep defenders off-balance when anticipating his finishes.

As we saw with his handling and finishing development, Jonathan Kuminga was already a tough cover. Adding this level of prolific midrange shotmaking brings him to a new level of danger. The only forwards in the league that can match his driving and midrange efficiency? Kevin Durant and Kawhi Leonard. End list.

There is a last category, however; one that brings him down a rung.

Creating for Teammates

This part gets ugly. We’ll just rip the Band-Aid off.

Only one player posted a worse rate of passing out of drives (3+ per game) and assist percentage than rookie Jonathan Kuminga: Jaren Jackson Jr. The film asserts what the stats say. He couldn’t handle more than the most obvious reads, and even many of those were a struggle.

Here are his best plays made off the drive that season:

No, really. Highlights.

Then, you have the lowlights:

Bad footwork. Late reads, or entirely missed ones. Poor pass placement and body control. He checked all the telltale signs for a player struggling to catch up with the speed of the game. Picking up two turnovers for every assist on the drive was a tough scene.

It got somewhat better in his sophomore year. The passing rate on the drive increased (27.4% to 33.7%) and the assist rate jumped (3.4% to 11.0%) while the turnover rate increased modestly (7.2% to 9.3%). Much like his driving to the rim and midrange, he scaled in volume with increased success while not letting some bad results get in the way of him trying.

There were still plenty of bad turnovers on the drive and processing issues, to be sure:

This was balanced with better execution of simple reads: kicks to the near and far corner/wing, dunker spot finds, reading cutters or open shooters in space. It’s not impressive playmaking, but beats the hell out of no playmaking.

So it would seem his playmaking is on the up and up. But as I’ve stressed in previous articles, development is not linear, and his playmaking off the drive has crashed back out in the current season.

This season, he’s back at the bottom of pass rate (26%) and assist rate (2.8%) with – guess who! – Jaren Jackson Jr. To some credit, he’s cut down on the turnover rate (9.3% to 8.3%) but it’s nothing to write home about with that playmaking drop.

The bad pass placement could have been expected, but it seemed like he was less active in reading the help and has been prone to lazy turnovers. Despite the scoring heights he has reached the current season, the playmaking on the drive has clearly regressed.

Another problem with his drive playmaking has cropped up: running into an excessive amount of charges. Failing to read the help and carelessly running into turnovers feels like rookie-year behavior, not the player we have seen this year.

The most frustrating part is that he still put on the flashes of a solid passer, and even showed a better sense of how to manipulate the help on the drive to get higher-quality looks for teammates:

It was a question of consistent effort on Kuminga’s part, not a true regression of skill. If anything, the gap between his good and bad playmaking widened. The problem is that the bad once again outweighed the good.

This lack of consistent playmaking for others, especially considering the driving gravity he will draw, could become a major limitation of his star status. It’s something I’ll keep a close eye on as we track his trajectory.

Wrapping Up

It’s clear through the tape and stat mix that Kuminga’s development in handling, finishing, and midrange scoring has taken a major leap, all contributing to huge success on the drive. There are obvious playmaking concerns that loom large over this, but he has all the time in the world. He won’t turn 22 until next season. And don’t forget he went from utterly inept on the drive to borderline dominant in the span of 2.5 seasons.

Parts of this article may come off as overly critical and expectant for a player his age. That was partially my intent. He has put himself into a stratosphere of offensive performance that demands expectations for further development. When your game grows this quickly, why would it stop? We (the fans, the analysts, the team, Kuminga himself) all want the same thing. To see his game kick into an even higher gear, and the next one after that. And the next one. And the next one…

The post Jonathan Kuminga’s Drive to Stardom appeared first on Swish Theory.

The Minnesota Timberwolves will be a top 3 seed in the Western Conference.

Most NBA fans were down on the Timberwolves to start the year after the team had mortgaged most of its future picks to bring in Rudy Gobert and the fit between him and Karl Anthony Towns looked clunky from the get-go. Since then the Wolves have had some changes to the roster, trading away D’Angelo Russell for Mike Conley while also losing KAT for most of the season, unable to build any cohesion with the new roster. Despite this, the Wolves ended up as the 8th seed with a 42 – 40 record and a top-10 defense (at this point it might be more of a surprise if a team with Gobert does not end up achieving this.)

How does a team that lost one of the best offensive big men in the league for over 50 games still maintain that level of success, all things factored in? Well, perhaps it is an oversimplification but it is the creation jumps that both Anthony Edwards and Jaden McDaniels took last year while adding Gobert, Conley, and the Wolves’ unsung hero in Kyle Anderson. Before the Conley trade, the team struggled with turnovers and consistent ball movement in the half-court, and in addition to that, the team was still trying to figure out how to consistently use both Gobert and Towns while playing to both their strengths. Towns’ injury only emphasized this issue and the lineup of Conley, Edwards, McDaniels, Towns, and Gobert played a whopping 75 minutes together over 7 games (per NBA.com.)

This year is different for the Wolves. Barring health, the Wolves have the time to build chemistry, have a truly deep roster, and have two players under the age of 24 on dramatic development curves as creators. These are all the ingredients to catapult the Wolves into a top seed in the Western Conference. Getting Towns back this season is not just valuable because Towns is one of the best bigs in the league, but this roster was built to accentuate Towns’ strengths while mitigating his weaknesses. Using Gobert as the low man, Towns can go back to his Kentucky days where he operated more as the help-side rim protector. Having two elite defensive wings like McDaniels and Edwards helps funnel ball handlers from the perimeter into shot-blocking opportunities while also being able to rotate over and protect the rim in backline assignments when opposing teams specifically choose to bring either big out onto the perimeter in actions. All of this allows Towns to do what he does best, which is dominating on the offensive end.

The Wolves lacked ball movement and were very turnover-prone last year, quite literally bottom 5 in TOV% (per NBA.com) before Mike Conley supported some of those issues, so how do they fix that this year? I feel like the answer is staring right at us and that is to put Towns more into primary actions more often in the half-court, particularly more as a playmaker from above the break or from the elbows rather than sitting in the corner in spread pick and roll. Towns’ shooting gravity has truly unique value as a screener and out of DHO’s. When you have three guys in Edwards, McDaniels, and Conley who have shooting gravity and can effectively put the ball on the floor, while having Gobert who is still one of the best rim-runners in the league, there is a lot of potential for the Wolves to create effective offensive opportunities at the basket in the halfcourt. I think Coach Finch will see this as the season progresses and if they can maintain their defensive rating with Towns on the floor, I believe it is quite conceivable for the team to make a 6 or 7-game win jump from last year’s record.

Josh Url:

The Memphis Grizzlies will be in the play-in. 

In each of the last two seasons the Memphis Grizzlies had one of the 5 best records in the league and were the 2nd seed in the West. They accomplished this despite key players missing 25+ games each season. This season Ja Morant is suspended for 25 games and Brandon Clark and Steven Adams will miss most and all of the season due to injury.

This is nothing new. so why will they slide in the West?

Without the STRONG screens, smart passes, and extra looks from offensive rebounds Adams provides, the Grizzlies should see a drop in efficiency from an already below average offense.

Despite the presence of the last two DPOYs the Grizzlies are likely to see some slide in their defense too. Without Adams, JJJ won’t be as free to roam on defense as he did during his DPOY season. A deeper dive into the rotation will likely hurt the defense too.

@BeyondTheRK

The Thunder and Magic will outperform expectations by making the biggest leaps in each conference. This is the year Orlando and Oklahoma City return to the playoffs.

The Thunder crept into the play-in game last year, winning 40 games in the West without playing a traditional big man. This season, the fringe playoff team adds a unicorn to the frontcourt, without giving up anything. While his game isn’t traditional, his production is; Chet Holmgren is stepping onto the court as a help-side rim-protecting presence, a backdown middy pull-up fadeaway connoisseur, and a strong rebounder unafraid to get his hands dirty who brings a subtle yet menacing tenacity to the way he moves around the court, a tough mindset not often found in slimmer bigs.

Adding such a dynamic two-way talent to a team that already ranks in the middle of the pack in point differential and features a superstar scoring creator Shai Gilgeous-Alexander should only make guarding Thunder pick-and-rolls feel impossible, and can only take this squad’s ceiling to new heights. Ranking in the Top-3 in turnovers on both ends of the floor shows high-feel focus on the little things, a rare trait for such a young team. Giddey, JWill (x2), Dort, Poku, and Mann help round out a rotation with so much prospect depth that playing time will continue to shift towards the players who give the team the best chance to win, rather than opportunity to develop by playing through mistakes.

Teams with top-10 defenses and .500 records don’t miss the playoffs. Over their final 62 games, Orlando won half their games while rating Top-10 in both defense and drawing fouls, a pace that would have them in the play-in 7-10 range, all of which happened once Markelle Fultz returned from injury to the starting lineup, leading to Cole Anthony moving to the bench, leaving Orlando with a reliable PNR-running point guard on the floor at all times.

The Magic can rely on endless paint and spray drive-and-kick ball-movement for a sustainable offense going forward. On the season, Orlando ranked 15th in pace, 12th in points off turnovers, and 10th in drives per game, standing as one of only four teams with three players who drive into the paint at least ten times per game. In 966 minutes together, the starting frontcourt of Franz-Paolo-Wendell has a respectable +2 Net Rating. Year 2 Paolo and Year 3 Franz are ripe for mini-leaps as they ascend towards stardom, as the squad sees little to no turnover while adding veteran Joe Ingles and two rookie lottery picks to the locker room.

Coachable continuity and internal development of star talent will propel both teams forward.

Emil:

The Atlanta Hawks will directly qualify for the Playoffs.

The Atlanta Hawks went through some troubled times last season, with a coach that probably lost his grasp on the team and a star that didn’t look very happy for the situation. However, they managed to finish with a 41-41 record and qualify for the playoffs through the Play-in Tournament.

This season they are at the starting line with a new coach: Quin Snyder.

Snyder has an analytic-friendly coaching style that always delivered good results in the regular season; indeed his teams had widely positive records since 2016 (he had a 372-264 record in his Jazz tenure).

Moreover, Trae will probably approach this season more serenely and there’ll be a certain degree of internal growth of younger players like Okongwu, AJ Griffin and Jalen Johnson.

It’s not crazy to think they can improve their record and 45 wins were enough to directly qualify for the Playoffs in the Eastern Conference last season.

Matt:

Santi Aldama will win sixth man of the year.

With the news of Steven Adams out for the season, the Grizzlies are desperately seeking answers for the interior. Aldama would not be mistaken for Adams, 35 pounds shy of the New Zealander, but can provide a very useful different look for Memphis off the bench. Xavier Tillman is expected to start for Adams (barring a trade), but Aldama could give them a different kind of versatility, especially on offense.

Aldama is a kind of skeleton key for the Grizzlies, in that he can provide a combination of passing, feel for the game, screening, shooting and rebounding only exceeded by Jaren Jackson Jr. on the squad. At seven feet tall, Aldama is likely to get backup minutes at center for the Grizz, but has more functioned as a big wing up to this point.

Aldama has no hesitation when hoisting from deep, which means he’s capable of getting up as many as 10 threes per 100 possessions with a quick, high release. That mark, when combined with JJJ providing even more spacing, can clear up the paint for the Grizzlies, especially during Ja Morant’s suspension when rim pressure will be lacking. He is a good enough passer to hit cutters in the Grizz’s constantly in movement offense (9th by miles per hour last season) and good enough driver with long stride lengths. His screening is adequate, but best when ghosting into a three. That quick-trigger decision-making and willingness to let it fly make Aldama constantly guardable, a trait lacking in Tillman.

On defense, Aldama is not as mobile as you’d like in a wing or as good of a rebounder as you’d like in a big, capable of tracking rotations but less impactful from a playmaking perspective. But hey, 6MOY is about points anyways.

Charlie:

Jonathan Kuminga will get heavy 6MOY consideration

This is usually my least favorite award on the whole, because it really should be named for the leading bench scorer. However, Jonathan Kuminga has a chance to right the wrongs done to Andre Iguodala in his early Golden State years.

Elite defense, rebounding and solid-to-great connective playmaking won’t win you this award, unless you have healthy high-teens scoring to go with it. I think Kuminga is poised to make that leap and become the new fixture in their “Death Lineup” alongside Steph, Klay, Andrew Wiggins, and Draymond.

The shooting is coming along (46% from deep in preseason, 42% over last 30 reg season games) and he racked up 21.8 PPG in this preseason after a strong finish to last season. The drives are fun, teams can’t just spam unders, and he makes highlight plays that spark national attention. The blueprint is there for some serious hardware.

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Picture you are ten years in the past. 2013 Blake Griffin is dominating on the pick-and-roll, jumping over cars and defenders (sorry not sorry Kendrick Perkins), and dominating in the paint. Imagine you’re given a glimpse into the future, and you see this:

Since AI deep-fakes are not a thing yet, you’d just assume this is some sort of black magic or bath salts-induced hallucination. But yes, Blake Griffin is a perimeter guy now. How things change.

Now, I could prattle on about mystery shooting development and leave you thinking “hey, anything is possible!”, but my brain cannot work that way. We need to at least narrow things down, via film and stats, to develop realistic shooting development comparisons for Jonathan Kuminga. So, let’s get into it.

Criteria

For this exercise, I picked out players with comparable frames, shot diets, and development arcs. They’re not perfect fits, but it’s the closest you can get to Kuminga’s profile. We will use Brandon Ingram, Jerami Grant, and Tobias Harris as examples here.

All of these guys have broken out into high-volume deep shooting near or above 40% at some point in their careers. I want to explore how each of these individuals got to an elite level of shooting, and how these factors could foretell a future for Jonathan Kuminga.

Tobias Harris

A one-and-done combo big (in the NCAA at least) coming out of Tennessee, Harris’ prospect profile didn’t scream “future elite shooter”. 36.6% from the midrange, 30% from deep, and 75% from the line is about as middling as it gets. Yet a 6’8″ frame and a baseline touch gives some hope, and though it took a while, Tobi arrived. Look at his shooting development in the first 4 years in the NBA:

Getting to 36.4% on solid volume isn’t the level of breakout you will see with some of these other players, but considering this was the prelude to elite shooting 2-3 seasons later, I’ll count it for our purposes.

A few things to consider: all of the shooting percentages are very steady, from both midrange spots and the line, but the three-pointers fluctuated between bad and below-average. As he scaled up in his role, he began adding far more three-point volume, going from a 14% three-point frequency to 25% by year 4. This increased confidence in his shot began to show; he didn’t take an unassisted three until getting out of Milwaukee and began showing his off-the-dribble game.

The 2013-14 season for Orlando was crucial for his development. Despite hitting only 25.4% of his threes, he took almost 10% of them off the dribble. Midrange and free-throw indicators remained stable, and this built into his year 4 breakout. The increased confidence led to volume, volume lead to production, and just like that Tobias Harris was a good NBA three-point shooter.

His journey was built on stability and slow-burn scaling. He didn’t abandon the productive parts of his game, instead choosing to slowly expand his range and follow the process, not the results. These days he’s incredibly well-rounded, using his shot gravity to do work in the midrange and having some of the best rim frequency/finishing seasons of his career.

The length of his journey, however, was far different than the others we will look at.

Jerami Grant

Talk about a breakout nobody saw coming.

A below-average free throw shooter at Syracuse with career 6/20 marks from deep and 33.3% in the midrange, there were very few reasons to think Jerami Grant would turn into a borderline elite shooter at the NBA level. Yet, we are here.

Grant went from a non-shooting off-ball 4 to a true on-ball scoring machine on the perimeter and in the midrange, completely transforming his offensive profile with the addition of these new perimeter skills. He jumped from a middling usage scorer to a 90th percentile-plus usage wing, taking tons more threes and midrange shots at far lower assisted rates. The development hasn’t stopped: Grant now boasts one of the quicker catch-and-release jumpers you’ll find in the league.

Compare that jumper to what you see in the video below, and you’ll see the technical strides he has made:

He tightened his base (which is more conducive to movement looks) and killed the dip in his release while becoming more efficient from deep, a difficult feat by itself. This allows Grant to add a wider array of shots to his diet with the same repeated mechanics: if your off-the-dribble or off-screen mechanics are the same as your standstill shots, it builds more consistency in the shot. Keep that on-the-fly shot tweaking in mind when we get to Jonathan Kuminga.

Grant is an interesting contrast to Tobias Harris in terms of building offensive layers. While Harris slowly expanded his game, adding to a strong rim-finishing game with midrange and later threes, Grant burst through the wall like the Kool-Aid Man. The shot arrived, and the rest fell into place as a result: foul drawing (89th percentile last year), unassisted rim looks, and tons of long midrange creation off the dribble. Now you have a 20+ PPG scorer for the last 3 seasons on 45/37/83 shooting splits.

Exploring scoring growth via shooting is an interesting case, and I like to look at different ways it shows itself. When projecting a player like Kuminga, that potential growth could be explosive (like Jerami) or slow-burn (like Tobias). It’s good to see how those indicators develop, and what could be construed as indicators for those growth patterns.

Now, let’s look at a more explicable example of shooting development: massive volume increase.

Brandon Ingram

Now, there are certainly some reasons that can explain this massive leap in shooting production. One is named Fred Vinson, the New Orleans shooting coach who has worked wonders, including a total overhaul of Lonzo Ball’s shooting (which also happened the same year as Ingram’s breakout). At the time Ingram was on the team, the Lakers were the only NBA team to not employ a shooting coach. Yes, the mighty Lakers forgot to work on the “shooting” aspect of the game up through 2019. What a shame.

Ironically, the team only hired a shooting coach the summer after trading Ingram and Ball to the Pelicans, and the hiree in question was one of Vinson’s underlings. Too little too late.

You can see the lack of a shooting development plan in Ingram’s shot profile. Despite the rough numbers from the line and from deep, he was always a player with touch and shooting indicators and the frame to work wonders with. Yet his three-point attempts actually decreased in his first 3 seasons, despite the Lakers not being very serious teams on the court. His shot development was completely adrift, aimless, just waiting for something to break.

And since Ingram was shipped to New Orleans, he transformed into one of the best perimeter shotmakers in the league.

Encouraged to shoot from deep instead of discouraged, Ingram quadrupled his three-point attempts from his last season in LA to his first in New Orleans. That is a ton of high-level reps that developed confidence and consistency, and he responded with his best overall shooting season. The Bingy striped 43% of his long twos, 39% of his threes, and jumped his free throw percentage from the high 60s to mid 80s.

The shot development from deep opened up the best part of his game in the midrange. In New Orleans, Ingram has been the premiere midrange shot taker of the league not named DeMar DeRozan: 61% of his total shot attempts last season came from these spots. Considering he also has crazy unassisted shot percentages, these are of the highest difficulty, and he manages to make them at a strong clip. Adding that three-pointer to his arsenal, albeit at low volume, has served to accentuate the best part of his scoring game.

Many other factors have gone into his overall scoring breakout, including a higher volume of on-ball reps and lack of competition for touches. Adding the three-point shot helped turn Ingram from a lanky potential-laden wing to a primary scoring option and perennial All-Star caliber player, and unlock the true strengths of his game. In terms of realistic needs for a guy like Jonathan Kuminga, this is the ideal outcome: adding enough of a strong perimeter shot to accentuate the true strengths of his offensive game.

Man of the Hour: Jonathan Kuminga

We’ve seen a range of shooting development outcomes now, and it’s time to do some projecting.

You’ll notice something in the shot diet right off the bat: lots more threes than midrange attempts. But when you look at the film on his midrange attempts, you see a lot of touch, handle, and confidence that translates to success. When he gets going to his right at the elbows, he has a really soft touch and great apex on his jumper from all angles:

It’s not a shot he is encouraged to take often, but one he could certainly add more to his diet if space is opened up by his threes down the road.

Not only have we seen an improvement from below-average to above-average shotmaking from deep, but Kuminga has drastically improved his form. This is one of the factors that led to Jerami Grant’s breakout: locking the elbow and speeding up the release without sacrificing efficiency. Kuminga has sped up his release compared to last year, but his percentages did not suffer. That’s a great sign of his preternatural touch, something largely necessary to long-term shooting development from multiple levels.

Just listen to Klay Thompson discuss it, a guy who knows a thing or two about shooting form:

What I have also enjoyed over his first two seasons is the commitment to work on his form and add new tweaks when necessary, something that was also of great benefit to Jerami Grant. He’s working on his feedback constantly, improving the speed, efficiency, and repetition of his form. Look at the second clip here and note the angle of his shooting elbow:

Now here is his free throw motion last year. Check out how tight that shooting elbow is to his body, but with the same speed and eye tracking:

If Kuminga is comfortable speeding up the work on his jumper like this, and seeing an uptick in his shooting results through that process, then we should be bullish on his future shooting ability.

He’s capable of sustaining strong shooting stretches already. Over the second half of the season, Joku hit 41% of his 2.5 attempts per game, and it correlated with strong midrange looks. This really helped to round out his offensive game, again much like Jerami Grant: his foul-drawing and 2-point % both went up over that stretch, as teams had to respect the shot and opened up his lightning-fast closeout attacks.

Concluding Thoughts

It becomes simple math once Kuminga has established himself as a strong “time and room” shooter. If you leave him wide open and he continues to make it, it’s time to play him closer. And the vast majority of defenders cannot keep him in front physically. As his handle-footwork combo continues to develop alongside his superior athleticism, this will play off his perimeter game, and you will find yourself looking at a well-rounded scoring wing sooner than later.

How he ultimately shapes his game in the future will be interesting if the shooting is real. Perhaps it simply serves as a way to keep the defense honest as he tries to relentlessly drive the paint. Maybe the midrange game comes around, and he cultivates a Harris/Grant-esque scoring profile. Heck, he could just be a great perimeter AND inside-the-arc talent like Ingram, only with the frame of a competition-winning bodybuilder instead of LeBron’s skeleton (no offense, Bingy). Now that’s a scary thought.

I’ll be closely watching Kuminga’s shooting development over the coming season, and we will begin to get a better idea of his future scoring profile based on the data gathered from this season. Maybe he will carve his own path in the wing-shooting development world. We can only sit back and watch.

The post Jonathan Kuminga, Future Shooter? appeared first on Swish Theory.

But the first two games felt like the Warriors stood in the same spot and dug a 15-foot hole straight down and became shocked when they couldn’t climb out.

Despite out-shooting the Kings for two games on the road, a seemingly impossible feat considering Golden State’s road shooting splits, they couldn’t stop tripping over themselves. The advantage from deep (30% on 70 attempts for SAC vs. 32% on 90 attempts for GSW) has been negligible, but the advantage inside the arc has been a major surprise. GSW is making 65% of their twos, compared to 54% from Sacramento.

What’s really killing them is the volume of high-value shots they are allowing to Sacramento. Not only are they taking 50% more shots inside the arc than Golden State by total volume, but they are also getting high-value short midrange shots that GSW has traditionally allowed. De’Aaron Fox especially is able to take advantage of that:

The shooting percentage on twos and from deep has also been completely negated by the Kings pummeling the undersized and under-hustling Warriors on the offensive glass. A 17-9 margin in Game 1 and 12-9 in Game 2 only furthers Golden State’s deficit in shot totals. It’s no coincidence the Kings got 8 more shot attempts in a three-point Game 1 victory, and 10 more in Game 2. But the losses on the glass are only half the equation.

Unsurprisingly, Golden State has also lost the turnover battle in both games. That feeds right into the Kings’ high-powered transition game, and it’s absolutely murdering them.

Oh, did I mention the Kings also won the free-throw battle in both games because of their superior rim pressure and point-of-attack defense? And that Golden State’s defensive fulcrum will be missing for Game 3 after stomping out Domantas Sabonis like a Mortal Kombat finishing move?

So, Are We Cooked?

Maybe. It’s possible that Golden State is gearing up to charge out of the gates into death and glory like Theoden and Aragorn at Helm’s Deep. And though they don’t have reinforcements coming at dawn of the fifth day, they have one thing neither Sacramento nor Saruman possesses: Wardell Stephen Curry II.

Through the course of his playoff career, Curry has played in 12 do-or-die games while down 2-1 or 3-2 in the series. He averages 27.9 points, 5.8 rebounds, and 6.9 assists per game while the team has posted an astounding 8-4 record with their backs against the wall. He’s at his most dangerous when threatened, and I fully expect him to go nuclear tonight to try to avoid the first 3-0 series deficit of his career. Never having been down 2-0 is an incredible feat by itself, and Steph will do all he can to hold the tide. The increased PNR frequency will be on full display tonight: expect a good 50 ball screens for Curry tonight.

But against the best offense in the league, he won’t be enough by himself.

Supporting Cast is Called To Action

Without Draymond Green, lots of other players will need to step up. Even if Jonathan Kuminga joins the starting lineup, the Warriors will need a Herculean effort from future Chase Center statue-haver Kevon Looney. The league leader in offensive rebounds needs to put on a one-man glass-cleaning show to negate Sacramento’s advantage on the glass.

They’re also going to rely heavily on the off-ball rotations from Andrew Wiggins and Klay Thompson. So much of their first-ranked opponent rim percentage mark is predicated on getting the right rotations from Draymond Green, and without him, someone will need to step in to help Kevon Looney when dealing with Sabonis in the post, trying to contain De’Aaron Fox drives, or tracking and erasing their cutting wings.

Extra reliance on Jonathan Kuminga is perhaps a necessity tonight. Jordan Poole is not playing up to his pedigree, and Golden State is in dire need of a positive contributor on defense who can switch and stay engaged off the ball. Kuminga is also capable of filling Poole’s rim pressuring via cuts, rolls, slips, and drives without all the silly extra stuff that comes with Poole’s recent offensive performance.

The point-of-attack defense also needs to step up, especially if Poole is seeing diminished minutes. With less defensive mistakes to cover up, they’ll have to buckle down on Fox, Malik Monk, and Kevin Huerter to stop the endless purple tide of rim pressure, midrange mastery, and perimeter shooting.

How Can They Pull It Off?

We’ve seen the how. In the first quarter of Monday’s game, they showed crisp offense and a hustling defense that forced Sacramento into far more threes and turnovers than they would have liked while controlling the glass to boot. Then the effort faded, the defense collapsed, and so did the lead.

Effort is first and foremost. Fight for every inch on the glass. Guard the ball with necessary caution. Fly off every screen, cut and roll hard, and rotate with a purpose. They’re capable of out-talenting the Kings on a bad night, but they need to win games by outworking them. Another stale effort will find them at a point of no return.

They need to stay committed to blowing up Sacramento’s handoff actions, forcing Sabonis into double teams, and keeping De’Aaron Fox out of the middle at all costs. And offensively even a few minutes of stagnated movement and lack of cohesion can put them under against the best offense in the league. A full 48 minutes of crisp effort will win them this game, even without Draymond Green.

It’s entirely in the hands of the players now. If they don’t bring effort and execution to tonight’s matchup, they should start looking at flights to Cabo.

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What is going on in his life is clearly serious enough to take precedence over ball in hoop, a concept many fans are unable to reconcile. But the reality is the Warriors still have a basketball team to maintain and need to start asking what happens if Wiggins remains with his family for the duration of the playoffs.

The answer to the question is Jonathan Kuminga.

Stepping Up Offensively

Since Wiggins’ exit from the lineup, Kuminga has taken his consistency on the offensive end to new heights. In the 15 games since (interrupted by a brief ankle twist), he’s scoring 14 points per game despite playing only 25 minutes per. Shooting 58% on twos is very promising, but shooting 42% on threes over that stretch is eye-opening. It’s the best floor-spacing he’s provided thus far in his career, and couldn’t come at a better time.

What has stood out to me the most is the mix of confidence and positive results in isolation. He’s been crushing from the midrange recently, showing a soft touch on his shots we rarely saw during his rookie season:

His development as a pinch offensive creator goes a long way toward filling the Wiggins role. Two-Way Wiggs doesn’t often find himself controlling things offensively, but with so much creation burden on Steph Curry, Klay Thompson, and Jordan Poole, they need a guy to spell them for a possession now and then. And unlike Wiggs, Kuminga is capable of creating more than just a long two by himself.

What’s more, this rise in efficiency and creation has not come at the expense of the other facets of his offensive game. He’s still one of the more efficient cutters on the team. Kuminga’s cut frequency places him in the 71st percentile amongst all wings, and his 1.39 PPP mark on cuts rates in the 69th percentile. Very nice.

On top of proficient cutting, his efficacy has a screener really jumps off the page. He’s developing into one of their better slip threats, finding ways to help spring Golden State’s shooters off his screens while learning to read the floor and pick his chances to roll and attack the rim.

As if it couldn’t get better, he’s beginning to learn soft lefty finishes to make himself an even more difficult contain. Though only in the fledgling stages, the Warriors have learned how to make Wiggins a paint threat with only one finishing hand. Surely they could do a lot offensively with a combo forward capable of finishing with his off hand.

The cutting, screening, and presence on the offensive glass make Kuminga a surprisingly good replacement for Wiggs on the glamorous end of the floor, but the shooting concerns lurk. Steve Kerr has said himself the reason we haven’t seen a 1:1 replacement is the shooting concern of a Kuminga/Draymond/Looney frontcourt. And though Kuminga has been streaky at times, he’s been above 40% for the past three months. Perhaps he can keep it up and make teams pay for leaving him open off Steph and Klay, hitting enough threes and attacking closeouts to pull his weight on that end of the floor.

Am I arguing that Kuminga is the third Splash Triplet going forward? Absolutely not. But has he shown he could hit above 40% of his open three looks for a seven-game series? Absolutely yes. The playoffs are often about capturing variability from your role guys, and he is capable of the positive kind of statistical outlier.

It’s unreasonable to expect him to match the consistency that Wiggins brought on that end of the floor, but he could certainly imitate it at times while bringing his own unique screen-and-slip dynamism to the lineup.

A Capable Defensive Replacement

Not many teams can boast a quality stand-in for an absent defensive stud. On most squads, your A1 perimeter defender disappearing into thin air spells doom. Not when you have a future defensive ace waiting in the wings.

Kuminga’s +0.9 defensive estimated plus-minus places him third amongst all Warriors, and you can probably guess the top two. By that metric, he’s among the top 20% of wing defenders in the league this season, and the film absolutely matches the stats.

He’s starting to pair his 100th percentile athletic tools with floor awareness and patience. Instead of trying to do everything everywhere all at once, Kuminga is learning to steer his matchups into help and exist within the system, finding himself out of position less and less. He’s still foul-prone (14th percentile foul rate) but more than capable of serious event creation with his athletic package and improved positioning (75th percentile block rate, 58th percentile steal rate amongst forwards).

Though he’s not the impact defensive rebounder that Andrew Wiggins can be, he’s more than capable of generating stops at a high rate. As the positive showings outweigh the negative by an increasing number as time goes on, there’s reason to believe Kuminga can be a capable replacement as the A1 perimeter guy, especially when surrounded by savvy vets who can provide him with the right guidance off the floor and the right help rotations and direction on it.

Filling In the Gaps

I’m not arguing that a dropoff from Wiggins to Kuminga is nonexistent. If Andy remains out throughout the playoffs, Golden State will suffer as a result, there’s no denying that. Yet every playoff team deals with absences, and the West is full of absurd on-ball creators that cannot be matched up with Klay Thompson, Steph Curry, or Donte Divincenzo. Fortunately, they have a guy who has shown he can not only take on these matchups, but win them outright on some nights.

They need an uber-athletic forward to take the hard defensive assignments, leak out in transition, and make enough shots on the other end to keep the defense honest and take pressure off the primary creators.

I think Kuminga is ready to be that guy. There’s only one way to find out if I’m right.

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Note: Players are sorted chronologically by the time they were drafted; this is a ranking of these players in NO WAY. All stats will be points/rebs/assists/steals/blocks, splits will be 2PT/3PT/FT. Stats current as of 12/31, only December games counted

Jordan Poole, Guard

December Stats: 15 games (14 starts), 28.9/2.9/4.2/0.5/0.2 per 75 poss, 56/33/89 splits, 21.5 AST%, 0.91 ATO, .324 FTR, .475 3PR

Well, it’s been a month for the fourth-year combo guard.

With Steph and Andrew Wiggins missing the latter half of December, Jordan Poole has become the primary catalyst for Golden State’s offense and has more than performed. He scored the eighth most total points of any player in the last month of 2022, shouldering a load he didn’t look capable of carrying early this season.

What’s more important is the lack of total cratering offensively for the whole team. Without their MVP-level Curry or second-most consistent scorer in Wiggins, Golden State should be one of the worst offenses in the league. Being the seventh-worst offense in their absence is far better than it sounds.

So, how is Poole keeping Golden State alive offensively as they navigate their time sans All-Stars?

Finally, Offensive Consistency

Within Poole’s 27 points per game in December are a lot of very encouraging developments. His drives per game have jumped from 8.8 to 10.9 in Steph’s absence, showing a consistent willingness to get downhill. Unsurprisingly, his free-throw attempts have jumped from 3.5 to 6.5 per game in the same time frame. Jordan is playing like the rim-pressure threat we know he can be.

The increase in paint pressure hasn’t led to the sort of playmaking boost you’d like to see, but with a lack of scoring options around him, it’s hard to blame Poole for hunting his shot a bit more over the past 8 games (19.1 AST% compared to 26.1% w/ Steph). It’s also resulted in a slight uptick in his total free-throw rate and a decline in his three-point rate over the month of December relative to his season averages, showing a player determined to find quality looks. What stands out to me most is the confidence he has rediscovered, pulling out all sorts of mixtape moves and finishing deep threes, wild finishes, and dribble moves with his funky celebrating style.

Though still not hitting the efficiency numbers he is capable of, Poole has displayed the confidence in his shot that we’ve been waiting to see. 32.6% from deep in December isn’t jumping off the page, but he’s getting up over 9 attempts per game. He was at 35% from deep in December before Steph went down, so here’s hoping he can find more impact going forward. The off-ball flashes this month will come in handy when Golden State’s MVP returns.

One thing to remember with Poole’s shooting: being solid enough, in consideration of the difficulty of his shot diet, does a lot to the defense. Take a player like Luka Dončić. This is the first time in five years making an above league-average percentage of threes, but his shot difficulty and frequency are incomparable to any other shooter. Defenses have to respect the looks, even if not hitting in the 40% range like the elite perimeter shot makers. Poole ending up in a similar space perimeter-wise would go a long way toward enhancing his drives and overall playmaking.

This all adds up to consistency. In December, Poole strung together four straight games with 20+ PPG on three separate occasions. Up until then, he only had one back-to-back 20-point performance. That is a player who has found the reliability this team so desperately needed.

Defense Still Theoretical

Unfortunately, reviews aren’t as glowing about Poole’s defense. He is still a weak link in their faltering armor, ranking as one of their worst defenders in terms of total opponent FG% and being routinely attacked in screen actions. They still have the back-line defenders to make up for the deficiencies when playing with the starters, but it needs to be better.

When building a defensive profile from the ground up, any signs of life are welcome. He can be pretty good when engaged and staying within himself, acting as a cog within the system:

It’s the off-ball lapses that still drive people a bit nutty, including myself. His tendency to follow the ball often leads to his man slipping away for cuts or finding extra room on the perimeter. Again, if he stays within himself and focuses only on his own man, Golden State has the defenders to make an impact if he contains his responsibilities.

Until we see tangible improvement on the whole, all we have to hold on to are the flashes. Hopefully, those flashes become trends in the new year.

Keep An Eye Out For…

What happens when Steph comes back?

Will Poole revert to his bench self from early in the year, struggling to make an impact? Or can he keep up this confidence and bring it to a bench unit starved for the offense he has been providing recently?

This is what it comes down to for me. He’s found the offensive consistency I called for in the last edition, and the new challenge is to keep the momentum going once Curry returns to the forefront of the offense. This version of Jordan Poole with a healthy starting unit gives Golden State as good of a top-six as any team in the league.

James Wiseman, Big

December Stats: 9 games (0 starts), 20.3/10/1.1/0.4/1.1 per 75 poss, 65/50/68 splits, .294 FTR, 15.9 TRB%, 0.5 ATO

The pariah of Warriors Twitter showed signs of life to close the year, finding a way to make an impact with Golden State desperate for impact off the bench in the frontcourt.

Between November 7th and December 14th, Wiseman found himself playing in only 2 of Golden State’s 19 contests as he was moved down to Santa Cruz. Now he’s recorded playing time in 7 of the last 8 games, filling valuable minutes with many a Warrior out of the lineup; most notably, JaMychal Green has missed the last 6. But he’s not just a warm body, receiving more trust from Steve Kerr than ever before. How has James Wiseman accomplished this?

Impact Rebounding

Kevon Looney is one of the important cogs of Golden State’s defense for his ability to finish possessions, collecting 33% of available defensive rebounds when on the floor. JaMychal Green has been a serviceable player on the glass when Kevon sits, and his absence leaves the Warriors with only questions on the glass when going to the bench. Fortunately, Wiseman has found a way to step up.

In the month of December, only Looney has posted a higher share of defensive rebounds than Wiseman’s 35.1% mark. He’s looking more the part in addition to the statistical increases, using his frame to find bodies with more consistency and his length to reach the boards only some can get.

The increase in activity and technical skill has been a boon for his individual numbers, though not quite leading to the success for others you see out of Looney. He’ll have to improve at boxing his man out to get rebounding chances for the transition handlers, but he’s looking more the part of the 7-foot glass cleaner they had in mind.

Improved Drop Coverage

Wiseman has also found a way to create more impact with his defensive coverage. His spatial awareness in drop has looked better than it did early in the season, showing better hand activity and footwork to boot. You can see it all on display against Jalen Brunson on this drive:

A lot of his frustrating possessions have been marked by deep drops where guards can take short floaters or eat up space and get semi-contested shots at the rim. He’s starting to get a little higher to wall drives off earlier, showing increased confidence in his ability to recover backward and close off lobs or the weak side of the rim.

Though his opponent rim numbers haven’t shown improvement (75% in December), he sat at 66% before his recent call-up which was in Kevon Looney territory. Where the real improvement lies is in the distribution and limitation of the short midrange. Before the demotion, 33% of his paint attempts came in the short midrange, with opponents hitting 58% of those looks. Over this recent stretch, 47% of his paint attempts are short midrange, with opponents hitting only 31%. His exploration with a higher drop is creating a higher percentage of tough shots that he is contesting instead of giving up.

Part of what disappointed me with Wiseman’s defense early this year was the lack of variability. Ballhandlers, poppers, and rollers knew what to expect. A little more unpredictability could go a long way.

Finding Better Screen Angles

Another big struggle from the beginning of the season was impact screening. Wiseman still has a hard time finding the right way to get a true wipeout screen, but there have been improvements in his processing of where to be. You can see him making small adjustments based on the ballhandler and defender more often, and finding opportunities to slip on a regular basis.

When he’s actually making an impact with the screen, he’s shown some decisive possessions going downhill and finishing at the rim.

Positive strides in using screens for himself and for others are a great sign for his projected usage. The improved results should give him something to build on as the second half of the season approaches, and more importantly the eventual returns of JaMychal Green, Andrew Wiggins, and Steph Curry.

Keep An Eye Out For…

The impending rotation crunch.

If Golden State gets back to full health soon, will Wiseman have a role or return to Santa Cruz? That upcoming decision looms large over his next month. If staying around, building on his rebounding and screening impact could keep him in a low-minute role on a nightly basis. But if sent back down, James has to show he can dominate physically in the G while filling in his responsibilities as a 5.

Jonathan Kuminga, Forward

December Stats: 15 games (2 starts), 15.2/5.7/2.6/1.1/0.5 per 75 poss, 59/27/63 splits, .245 3PR, .422 FTR, 18.1 TRB%, 1.71 ATO

It’s apparent to anyone who watched Jonathan Kuminga’s development that his defensive impact is here to stay.

With Andrew Wiggins missing all but two games in December, Kuminga has been relied on as the top perimeter defender on the team, and the results are showing.

He’s making impact defensive possessions when Golden State needs them most. His rip on PJ Washington and defense on Damian Lillard to close tough wins during their recent four-game win streak show off how he can be a weapon anywhere. Defending bigger forwards, quicker guards, scoring wings, it’s all the same.

Let’s look closer at the breakout over the past month.

A Future All-Defensive Player Blooms

I have a hard time even counting the jaw-dropping perimeter possessions from Jonathan Kuminga this past month. His shutdown on Jordan Clarkson in a clutch situation against Utah was perhaps one of the most impressive:

His ability to guard any kind of ballhandler has put other teams on notice. With Memphis starving to get back in the game against the Dubs, they did everything they could to switch Kuminga off the ball to create offense, and he responded with quality help:

Adding to his excellent perimeter defense and blossoming help, he’s putting in more work on the glass. Finding the right spots to use his excellent vertical takes advantage of boxouts, and he can throw his weight around to deter glass crashers to boot. That approach will leave him with a well-rounded defensive game sooner than later, and his impact will be felt all over that end of the floor in due time.

There aren’t many words left to describe Kuminga’s defense other than begging you to track him on every defensive possession when he’s on the floor while Andrew Wiggins is out, and note the responsibilities he is given. And you can listen to Steve Kerr:

Taking His Drives

While Kuminga’s defense rightly gets the majority of the attention, he’s taking strides on offense as well. His drives per game have gone from 3.0 in October and November to 4.7 in December. On the season, he generates the fourth-highest percentage of points per drive among regular Warriors players. Adding more high-efficiency plays to a team lacking some primary offensive options has helped keep them afloat in important situations.

He’s showing off a variety of ways to beat the defense beyond his usual power-speed combination, showcasing footwork and off-hand finishing as a usable counter when he can’t get downhill instantly:

He’s shown himself to be capable of the spectacular as well, putting some Curry-esque high glass finishes off his drives:

What I’ve also enjoyed seeing is leveraging the playmaking for others. Kuminga has a higher pass percentage on drives than Steph, JP, and Draymond this season, showing a willingness to collapse the defense and find cutters or shooters. He’s finally starting to put results behind the intent. These slower drives give him better body control in addition to an extra tick to read the floor.

Last month I hoped to see more from Kuminga on his drives, and he has delivered when Golden State has needed offense more than ever. Further development as a drive-and-kick or rim-attack threat would majorly improve the Dubs’ offensive outlook going forward.

Stable Cutting

The Warriors rely on cutting as much as any team (97th percentile frequency this season, per Synergy) and Kuminga has taken strides to fit in. He ranks fifth on the team in total cut frequency and generates the sixth-highest PPP (1.29) which is a whisker above the team’s 1.283 average.

Over the past month, Kuminga’s cutting has proven crucial in clutch situations. His recognition of when to pick the right spot is apparent on this patient cut:

His physical tools and ability to pick good spots can be used to open things up for others, and he’s starting to recognize that:

Being a proficient driver and cutter would be all Golden State needs out of Kuminga offensively, given the personnel around him and his defensive value. He’s already pretty solid at both and seems to grow at a rapid pace. Who knows where his offensive value may lie by the end of the season?

Keep An Eye Out For…

Kuminga’s upcoming questions are similar to Wiseman’s, only in different degrees. When Steph, Wiggins, and JaMychal return to the lineup, where does Kuminga lie in the rotation? Is he 7th behind Poole, 8th behind Donte DiVincenzo, or has he solidified the inside track to a playoff rotation spot? And if so, can he stay at the level he’s displayed over the past month?

Moses Moody, Wing

December Stats: 14 games (2 starts), 10.8/2.8/2/0.7/0 per 75 poss, 58/46/75 splits, .583 3PR, .067 FTR, 3.75 ATO

Last month, I wrote about Moses Moody’s lack of playing time, which you can catch up on here. Steve Kerr outlined clear concerns for the sophomore wing, and he managed to deliver in December. Let’s look at what Moses built on in his limited playing time.

Taking Care of the Rock

Kerr outlined two main issues for Moody when previously asked about playing time concerns: turnovers and defending without fouling. He certainly delivered on the offensive end of that equation. In a November riddled with DNPs, Moody turned the ball over 10 times in 11 contests. That number was cut to 4 giveaways in 15 December games.

It didn’t come at the expense of his playmaking. His assists rose from 8 in November to 15 in December, turning his ATO from 0.8 to 3.75. It’s rarely spectacular, but he is finding spots to drive and find teammates, especially to the corners. He’s limiting his exposure to long ballhandling sequences with quick passes like these:

He can still be prone to the mistakes Kerr called out, like forced entry passes that aren’t lobbed or bounced. The ones like you see below are a major sticking point with the coaching staff.

If he cleans these up and continues to keep the ball flowing without mistakes, that would show a lot of growth.

Staying Ready

Unsurprisingly, Moody has a knack for coming off the bench cold and performing. He’s always been a hard worker and competitor who wants to contribute any way he can, including a variety of timely shots throughout the past month.

His confidence has permeated through his game despite some rough stretches. Constructive criticism from the coaching staff hasn’t deterred him from picking spots to be aggressive and use his physical tools.

He canned 43% of his 2.5 looks per game from deep in December, showing a player unshaken by early struggles and capable of hot stretches. For offensive purposes, better results from deep and limited turnovers with enough connective playmaking could put him back into consideration for a consistent bench spot.

Showing Defensive Potential

One and a half seasons in, Moody hasn’t shown the impact perimeter defense we saw in college on a regular basis. He’s prone to positioning issues and getting himself in trouble that he’s not capable of recovering from. Bigger wings have given him trouble, and quicker guards can get past him for now. But it’s the footwork to go with his length that could help him be a better overall deterrent:

Golden State has a strong rotation of defensive wings, but the absence of Andrew Wiggins has necessitated further depth on that end. Positive signs that Moody can be part of the unit without breaking are welcome. As usual, his help has been quality, especially when tasked with paint responsibilities where footwork and length play a major role:

Keep An Eye Out For…

The goal for last month was just to get more minutes. Now that he has that, can he build on some positive momentum?

If he continues to take care of the ball, plays more solid defense, and the shot continues to fall, it’s hard to justify keeping him out of bench minutes. Even if two of those three things are happening, he should have a more consistent role. It speaks to Golden State’s depth that he’s playing better and still on the outside looking in.

Moody will have to do a lot to put himself in consideration for the playoff rotation over the coming months, but let’s hope January is another step in that direction.

Patrick Baldwin Jr., Forward

December Stats: 7 games (0 starts), 20.8/4.4/1.1/0.5/0 per 75 poss, 33/52/50 splits, .778 3PR, .09 FTR, 18.6 DREB%, 1.0 ATO

Possibly the most unexpected development over the last month is Patrick Baldwin Jr.’s emergence.

After getting himself into 4 games over the first two months of the season, spending the majority of his time in the G-League, Baldwin found himself thrust into 7 contests as Golden State’s injury concerns deepen. And wow, did he look ready.

Shooting the Damn Thing

Baldwin’s 11.25 three-point attempts per 75 possessions ranked first among all Warriors in the month of December, and not by accident. Hitting 52% of those looks is eye-popping, and the way he does it looks very sustainable.

He’s great at keeping his feet active and finding angles, and that release point is damn near unguardable. Baldwin Jr. isn’t going to be a star rim pressure guy anytime soon, but he’s found ways to leverage his shooting success into closeout attacks. Besides, does the volume of free throws or rim looks matter when your 6’10” forward has endless confidence, a lethally quick release for his size, and elite shotmaking potential?

In this Golden State offense, he can be a massive weapon even in limited minutes. The bench has struggled to find consistent offense all year, and it now appears a PBJ three is one of their better options. The way he keeps himself moving will translate to good offense as long as he’s around:

He’s slowly becoming a silent killer, and the team is beginning to recognize that. As Klay said after their wild double overtime win in Atlanta, Patrick Baldwin Jr. is putting the “jelly” in PBJ.

There Might Be a Defender Here?

PBJ wasn’t drafted for his defense, and has shown the value pretty clearly on the offensive side of the ball. But he still has to learn to pick his spots on defense and stay responsible, even if he won’t be tasked with the most important assignments on the whole.

Not a skilled point-of-attack defender or rim protector, PBJ’s defensive tasks will be position and rotation-based. And there are good signs he knows what he is, and where to be:

Playing within yourself is one of my favorite traits for a defender. Knowing you aren’t the first, second, or third best defender on the court is a valuable skill all by itself. Watch Anthony Lamb run around like Draymond, overhelping like a fat uncle on Thanksgiving, and you’ll start to appreciate what Baldwin Jr. does.

He sticks in the lane to use his frame for rebounds, and picks his chances to rotate and make an impact:

Does enough to funnel Dejounte into the help when mismatched, then waits out the entry pass to pick up his teammates who just shouldered his drive. This is the stuff you want to see.

With PBJ’s offensive talents, finding little ways to contribute defensively will go a long way towards solidifying rotation minutes in the future.

Keep An Eye Out For…

Let’s build on this confidence, shall we?

It seems unlikely that he survives the impending rotation crunch, but he could make an outright case to steal JaMychal Green’s minutes at the 4 in the interim. If neither offer all that much defensively, why not play the true stretch 4 who can keep the ball moving?

Continue to let it rip from deep, provide credible rotations and secondary rebounding help for the bigs, and PBJ might just find himself with a nightly role after being written off as a potential contributor in the preseason. Hell, he might just play his way into a permanent fixture on the team.

Ryan Rollins, Guard

2022/23 NBA Stats: 60 total minutes, 12.3/5.9/3.6/0.6/0.6 per 75 poss, 30/33/100 splits, 6/16 ATO

2022/23 G-League Stats: 25.6/5.3/5.2/1.4/0.4 per 36 mins, 55/37/71 splits, .385 3PR, .179 FTR, 24.9 AST%, 1.41 ATO, 29.4% USG

Rollins being the only rookie-scale Warrior to appear in December and not improve their overall outlook says a lot more about Golden State’s other players than it does about Rollins.

He’s still looking pretty overmatched in his NBA minutes, as the 16 turnovers in 60 minutes and -49 net rating would indicate, but he’s looking like quite the player in the G League. Without NBA minutes on the horizon, seeing DNPs in all of Golden State’s last five wins, we still have to look for things in his G-League minutes.

Still a Riverboat Gambler

His defensive stats indicate a solid ability to pilfer the ball, but Rollins’ defense is still a bit frustrating to watch.

He LOVES to jump the gap in passing lanes and go for the pick-six, but often misses the window and pays big defensively. As I mentioned before with PBJ, playing within yourself on defense is a valuable trait, one Rollins does not possess at the moment. The massive wingspan for his size and athletic qualities certainly give him the ability to make these jumps on passes, but few players can consistently make that play without taking on water defensively when they miss.

Digs off the perimeter like you see below are where he needs to make his impact. That reach can close gaps faster than most guards can, and being a great help defender is impossible without tools. He just needs the process to match his gifts.

He’s not prone to lapses and can make some solid play recognitions, but his size deficiencies leave him fighting an uphill battle against wings or bigger guards. Don’t expect Rollins to be the switch-friendliest defender in this system.

There are flashes of a decent POA and better help defender in there, but we’re a ways away from rotation-caliber defense by Steve Kerr’s standards.

The Young Young Bull?

The good news for Rollins is that the offense has already translated up a level. After showing strong prowess on the glamour end of the floor at Toledo, Rollins has proven to be Santa Cruz’s best on-ball playmaker out of the gate.

His near 30% usage mark and sheer scoring volume are welcome signs for a team that has lacked a true backup scoring point guard since… Jarrett Jack? Rollins gets himself downhill frequently, showing some solid finishing with enough of a midrange/floater/runner package to present real counters to the defense.

Guards of his ilk tend to be one speed with few tendencies, but he has a strong sense of when to slow things up and use a change of speeds to create opportunities for himself or for teammates, as you see on this PNR with James Wiseman:

The potential for a quality on-ball game is only complemented by his off-ball shooting chops, which are on the rise. Guards with strictly on-ball value don’t last long in Golden State; you need to move without the ball, and it helps to have a quick and effective release:

Keep An Eye Out For…

Continued G-League dominance.

As the G rolls through their regular season, Rollins’ role has the potential to keep growing. He looks like a Quad-A athlete right now, too good for the minors but not quite ready for the majors. What it’s really about is proving yourself as a rosterable player next season, when Golden State could find themselves looking to replace Donte DiVincenzo, who holds a player option he is likely to exceed in free agency.

If the scoring and playmaking stay at this level, some turnovers are cleaned up, and consistency is found on the defensive end, the front office will be on notice.

Special Guest: Gui Santos, Wing/Forward

2022/23 G-League Stats: 12.5/9.4/3.8/1.0/0.8 per 36 mins, 61/33/58 splits, .521 3PR, .103 FTR, 13.9 REB%, 1.08 ATO, 17.1 USG

It’s time for Gui to make his debut after dropping 31 points, 8 rebounds, and 4 steals against a good Stockton Kings team to close the year.

Golden State hasn’t had much success with their draft-and-stash prospects in recent years, but Gui showcases his potential every time he steps on the floor. A slasher with playmaking chops and defensive potential written all over, he’s quietly an exciting project waiting in the wings. He’s also shown an ability to work on his flaws.

Chucking Away from Deep

Taking more than half his shots from deep is certainly a surprise considering what he was drafted for, but it makes sense in a developmental context. Gui shot 36% and 33% from deep in his last two seasons with Minas on limited attempts. Golden State probably wants to see if there’a anything there while the games are still lower stakes. This was a similar trend to how Jonathan Kuminga played with the G-League Ignite. He took far more threes than expected, trying to work on a weakness knowing he can slash and cut at will.

Gui isn’t the same caliber of athlete as Kuminga, but he’s shown an ability to contribute in a similar way offensively. The cutting and driving paved the way to his career-high game against Stockton:

If the cutting and slashing continue to translate, and a solid catch-and-shoot jumper forms, that forms the kind of big wing/small-ball 4 they want.

Another Defender Full of Potential

Gui has shown some on-ball flashes on opposing wings, with a solid combo of functional athleticism and size to be a moving wall in front of slower ballhandlers. With how he could be used by the big club, some signs of holding up on switches has to viewed as a huge plus at this stage.

Santos also has signs of a potential “event creator” off the ball. He’s shown to be a strong rebounder for his position, one who flies in off the wings to gather rebounds and hustles at every turn. Gui’s creation of steals and blocks is a pleasant surprise up to this point, which bodes well for a player who profiles in a help role often.

Considering the development Golden State has seen to date, the signs of being a Diet Kuminga in his first taste of upper tier pro basketball is a great start. Let’s hope he can continue his strong play in the G, and we’ll check in with him later on.

Looking Forward

With Steph and Wiggins out for the coming week plus of games, plus some incoming back-to-backs (including a 3 games in 4 nights stretch against Boston, Cleveland, and Brooklyn), the young players seeking rotation spots will have more opportunities to come. Players like Poole and Kuminga will see chances to solidify their roles as potentially important playoff contributors down the road.

Let’s hope that the beginning of the new year is as productive for these young Dubs as the end of the last. We’ll check in soon.

The post Two Timelines, Part III: A December to Remember appeared first on Swish Theory.

Note: Players are sorted chronologically by the time they were drafted; this is a ranking of these players in NO WAY. All stats will be points/rebs/assists/steals/blocks, splits will be 2PT/3PT/FT

It has been a weird month for the young Warriors. Some have gotten their legs with the big club or in the G-League, one has fallen out of the rotation, and one was demoted to Santa Cruz. Yet all of these moves have come while Golden State has turned a corner, winning 7 of their last 11 games.

With that recent success in mind, let’s take a closer look at which players have been contributing and who has faded into the background for now.

Jordan Poole, Guard

2022/23 Stats: 22 games (4 starts), 20/2.5/6/1.1/0.4 per 75 poss, 54/31/84 splits, 24.3 AST%, 1.57 ATO, .263 FTR, .522 3PR, -3.4 BPM

Though the statistical indicators don’t indicate any massive changes, Poole has made strides on both ends of the floor. After a first month of struggling for offensive consistency with poor on/off-ball defense, he’s starting to look more like the player we saw last season.

Finding Offensive Footing

The biggest change to me has been Poole’s willingness to flex between a playmaker and scorer. His three highest assist totals have all come in November, as he has found a way to get teammates involved when his shot isn’t falling. In fact, he shot a combined 8/32 across those three games, a strong indicator of his willingness to take a backseat and create for others instead of forcing his shot.

Not only is he a willing playmaker (career-high assists per 75), but a very good one:

With a team so reliant on his secondary playmaking, with or without Steph Curry on the floor, this past month has been a fantastic development.

What we have yet to see are the electric offensive results, still largely a result of inconsistent night-to-night performances. He shot under 40% from the floor (28% from deep) over the past month, results not at all indicative of his scoring talent or improved process.

Part of this lack of rhythm is likely due to his role. In four starts when Klay Thompson rests, Jordan averages a crisp 28 PPG on 63/36/92 shooting splits. He’s cleared 20 points in each of those contests while taking between 18 and 21 shots. He’s cleared 20 points only twice in 18 bench appearances.

Despite these struggles, I think the past month has been a big turn for his overall confidence. He’s driving with a purpose, to get to the rim or make plays for others. Per nba.com, his percentage of points in the paint has risen from 24% in October to 36% in November. He’s taking his opportunities to get out in transition to attack unsettled defenses:

In the halfcourt, he’s been patient in seeking his chances to attack mismatches and sloppy closeouts instead of forcing his drives against well-matched defenders:

Though the aforementioned 28% mark from deep is concerning, it hasn’t changed his level of confidence. Poole knows what caliber of shooter he is, and isn’t letting tough results get in the way of good process:

If Jordan can keep up this level of playmaking and rim pressure, the consistency will follow along with more made threes. I very much doubt he’ll have the same efficiency results in December if he maintains the play we saw in the past month.

Making Defensive Strides

Effort has been the key to a change in his defensive impact. Though still very much a negative defender, especially off the ball, he’s showing a lot more engagement when pressed into action.

His opponents are scoring less in the paint against him, from 30.6 to 27.5 PPG. He’s also managed to increase his defensive rebounding and block percentages from October to November. In fact, his block rate increased threefold and ended up higher than both Steph Curry and Donte DiVincenzo in that respect.

Not only do the stats show his increased hustle, but the film backs it up:

He’s even providing more credible off-ball help than we have ever seen out of him:

That’s not to say everything has been on the up and up. The rough closeouts and off-ball lapses are constants and have to be cleaned up to further tighten up a point-of-attack group that has disappointed to date.

Considering my tag for last month’s check-in was “show us something on defense”, I’d say he accomplished just that.

Keep An Eye Out For…

Again, I’ll be focusing on the micro instead of the macro for an established player like Poole. A reshuffling of the bench for added spacing has worked well for him, and the defensive improvements are certainly there. For the next month, let’s see if he can string together a few strong offensive games in a row while continuing his on-ball defensive development. Some further signs of off-ball awareness would be welcome as well.

James Wiseman, Big

2022/23 NBA Stats: 11 games (0 starts), 17.9/10/2.6/0.2/1.0 per 75 poss, 59/0/65 splits, .451 FTR, 15.9 TRB%, 2.5 BLK%, 1.38 ATO, -2.7 BPM

2022/23 G-League Stats: 5 games (5 starts), 20.8/13.3/0.8/0.6/1.7 per 36 mins, 63/29/46 splits, .200 FTR, 19.4 TRB%, 4.0 BLK%, 0.27 ATO, -8 Net Rating

After 11 games, a disastrous bench performance, and a 4-7 team record, the Warriors finally made the decision to demote James Wiseman to the Santa Cruz Warriors. And by all accounts, it’s been a good move for both the player and the team.

Though some prominent Golden State media have aggressively attributed the team’s turnaround in record to Wiseman’s demotion, there is certainly some truth to that. The trickle-down effect of his removal from the roster has been very apparent. More minutes for JaMychal Green and Jonathan Kuminga at the 5 and 4 spots, respectively, has improved both the defensive quality of the bench unit and the overall spacing afforded to their perimeter creators and cutters.

But beyond the impact on team success, what has changed for James Wiseman since his demotion?

A Low-Stakes Offensive Playground

As previously mentioned in the first timeline check-in, Wiseman’s offensive role with the big club was highly compartmentalized relative to his skill set. He was strictly used as a roller and cutter, with limited use as a floor spacer, post-up threat, or handoff hub. Now that he’s away from the pressure and expectations, he’s being allowed to play more like the rookie season version of himself.

For starters, he demands more offensive usage with the Sea Dubs. His usage rate has risen from 20% with GSW to 23% with SCW, in line with the 23.8% usage rate he posted during his rookie season. The increased offensive freedom has also been apparent on the stat sheet, as he’s taken 7 threes in 5 Sea Dubs games. He took none in 11 games with the City Dubs. Wiseman has also gotten up 2.7 more shots per 36 minutes, a positive sign of increased aggression.

This has resulted in some flashes of confidence we haven’t been able to see in some time.

From a developmental standpoint, letting him take jumpers can only be viewed as a good thing. He should be trying all kinds of shots to see what works for him, even if it’s just simple pick-and-pops.

What concerns me the most is the difference in Santa Cruz’s quality of offensive play when he’s on the floor compared to Trevion Williams, the other Sea Dub center. Trevion is a quality mover and sublime passer, one who can operate on the perimeter with his ability to take mismatches off the dribble. The ability to go 4-out or 5-out consistently improves the flow of the whole offense. Wiseman largely sticks himself in the paint looking for post-up chances, which clogs their movement as a help defender is constantly sitting in the lane.

For now, let’s hope Wiseman keeps up the aggression and can further smooth out his skills while adding a bit more perimeter potential. Reps, reps, and more reps are the key.

Still Struggling Defensively

Unfortunately, moving down a level in competition hasn’t improved Wiseman’s defensive impact.

Not only is he continuing to struggle in space, but he’s been very jumpy around the rim. He has a tendency to hunt for blocks instead of contesting shots and letting his length do the work, and it often results in biting on pump fakes:

Wiseman is allowing a 65% conversion rate on twos, not the kind of figure you want to see from such a physically imposing presence. Staying glued to the ground instead of springing to meet shots at the apex would do wonders for that number. He can afford to sacrifice a few blocked shots to get a higher rate of shot contests.

But that doesn’t mean we should ignore the flashes. This defensive possession on Kyle Lowry early in the month showed what he can be when engaged and working hard, even on the perimeter:

Signs of increased communication are there as well. As the backline defender, being able to call out coverages and actions would be a huge asset to the team that won’t show up in the box score.

There haven’t been many drastic changes on this end, but hopefully, over the next month, we can see some further development.

Keep An Eye On…

Last month, I said I wanted to see improvements in catching the ball and playing a more flexible form of drop coverage. Neither of those boxes has been checked, and only more questions are being asked.

I’d still like to see developments in both of those areas as Wiseman gets acclimated to the Santa Cruz environment over the coming months. In addition, continuing his offensive aggression is important. He needs to take advantage of his time in the G by trying as many things as he can, seeing what works, and hopefully applying those reps to his future call-up. It also wouldn’t hurt to knock down that 65% opponent FG% in the paint.

Jonathan Kuminga, Forward

2022/23 Stats: 18 games (2 starts), 13.1/6.6/1.9/0.8/1.3 per 75 poss, 54/25/75 splits, .391 3PR, .261 FTR, 10.4 TRB%, 3.2 BLK%, 0.63 ATO, -5.9 BPM

Last month, I compared Kuminga to the Cousin Greg of this Warriors’ prospect group: on the outside looking in, yearning for an opportunity. Now he’s gone full Tom Wambsgans, unexpectedly jumping to the forefront when you least expect it. It has truly been a banner month for Joku’s development.

In games where the team wasn’t resting their starters, Kuminga only managed to clear 10 minutes played in four of thirteen games before rotational changes arrived. Yet over the past four, he’s cleared that threshold every game, showing the increased confidence Steve Kerr has placed in him. So what has Kuminga done to earn his newfound spot?

Carving an Offensive Niche

Cutting, cutting, and more cutting. This is the primary reason for Kuminga’s newfound offensive success.

Though he’s only credited with 1.1 PPP on cuts (per Synergy), the process has been fantastic to watch. Largely stationed in the corners during halfcourt sets, he takes his chances well to cut off drives or short rolls to capitalize on a distracted defense. This has been a boon for his overall rim finishing numbers, sitting at 71% at the moment.

He’s also showing some increased confidence in his jumper. 4/12 on corner threes isn’t setting the world on fire, but there are some signs that he could show enough to force closeouts. That’s where his real value comes into play.

Kuminga has a unique ability to never truly be properly matched up when driving. He’s too big for guards to handle, too quick for bigs, and too strong for the average wing. We’ve seen that theoretical ability materialize itself in a big way over the past month:

Not only is he driving, but doing so with purpose. He’s creating scoring chances for himself or kicking to put the defense in rotation, cutting down on his habit of driving without a quick decision in mind. Considering the Warriors only have two true defense collapsers (definitely a word, don’t Google it) on the roster, adding a third threat to the mix could add a new element of danger to what is already a very good offense.

This isn’t to say everything has been perfect. He still turns the ball over at a high rate, struggling with his handle and on the catch. But he’s shown all the necessary signs this coaching staff has wanted to see, resulting in his newfound trust. He’ll be allowed to play through his mistakes to show the exponential growth we saw last year when he gets consistent playing time. Who knows how productive he might be on that end by the time January rolls around?

Playing With Defensive Purpose

What has really jumped off the page is Kuminga’s commitment to being an impact rotation defender. Over his last five, Kuminga has racked up 1.4 blocks per game in only 22 minutes per. Not only are the statistical results showing, but the tape shows a different level of activity and timing than we’re used to:

Since Wiseman’s demotion, Kuminga has spent more time at his natural power forward position. It’s been a boon for him offensively, but places more defensive responsibility on his shoulders when thrown into a help role. He’s rising to meet that challenge in a big way.

This increased time at the 4 hasn’t diminished his impact as a wing/point-of-attack defender. In his last game against Dallas, Kuminga was the only Warriors defender who could really bother Luka Dončić. That’s really saying a lot considering Andrew Wiggins‘ All-Defense-caliber presence. His physicality and mobility have always been present, but he’s starting to catch up from a technical perspective:

This kind of versatile defensive impact both on and off the ball is a huge addition to a team starving for defensive playmakers. If he can sustain this level of play on that end, it would change a lot of things for this Golden State team in the short term, let alone what it means for Kuminga’s future potential.

Keep An Eye Out For…

Well, time to toot my own horn a little bit. Here’s what I listed as potential points of growth for Kuminga in the month of November:

Cutting? Check. Impact rotations? Check. Did that lead to a consistent role? You bet.

Now the challenge is on Kuminga to build upon his success. I’d love to see him take some steps as an on-ball scorer, both from the perimeter and on his drives. On the defensive end, we’ve seen Kuminga be an impact rebounder over the past couple of games. If he can continue to work hard boxing out and using his silly second jumps to clean up defensive possessions, he can assist a squad currently ranked 22nd in total rebounding. I’ll be watching very closely to see what he does in December.

Let’s hope my predictive powers for Kuminga can keep up as well.

Moses Moody, Wing

2022/23 Stats: 18 games (1 start), 11.7/4.4/1.4/0.9/0.7 per 75 poss, 52/33/82 splits, .648 3PR, .310 FTR, 3.9 stock %, 0.53 ATO, -4.6 BPM

Speaking of predictive powers, I certainly did not hit the mark when it came to Moody over the past month.

While Kuminga has seen his quality in play and overall playing time increase, Moody has moved in the opposite direction. Over Golden State’s first 10 games, Moody failed to clear 10 minutes played only once. Since then, he’s only cleared that threshold twice: once in a blowout against the Spurs (with Klay Thompson resting), and again when the starting unit rested against the Pelicans. He’s also racked up four DNPs in that same timeframe, clearly falling out of coach Kerr’s favor.

With the lack of a recent sample size, I don’t have much to add to Moody’s developmental process beyond my recent piece written on his specific struggles, which you can read here.

With the problems clearly delineated and the new rotation working, the impetus will be on Moody to show positive flashes whenever he can get himself off the pine. Even in blowout scenarios with limited minutes, Moses has to show growth. Luckily, there have been signs recently:

Hopefully, over the next month, we’ll get some further chances to see Moody get significant playing time. With four back-to-backs on the docket for the next month, including two on the road, he will certainly have some opportunities. That should give us more data to work off, but for now, we stay in wait-and-see mode.

Patrick Baldwin Jr., Forward

2022/23 NBA Stats: 4 games played (0 starts), 24 total minutes played

2022/23 G-League Stats: 5 games played, 12.6/8.2/2.4/1.4/0.3 per 75 poss, 63/29/100 splits, .659 3PR, .021 FTR, 0.69 ATO

Now we move into the purely developmental group. Though PBJ has been able to grab more garbage time minutes with the big club, the real work is going on down in Santa Cruz.

Letting It Fly

Baldwin Jr. is letting 7.2 threes loose per 75 possessions, and though the 29% mark is less than ideal, he’s too strong of a shooter to not increase that number. Shooting has been his calling card since his days as a top-ranked high school recruit, and it’s great to see his confidence hasn’t waned over a difficult past year. His crazy high release and solid movement skills project as a great off-ball fit in their offensive system, which translates with the big club as well:

As long as he’s with the Sea Dubs, or when he gets his garbage time minutes, he should be letting that thing sing. As he gets his legs under him after a mostly lost one-and-done college season, getting up as many shots as possible.

Getting the rest of his offense to flow from that shooting gravity is important to round out his game. Finishing 63% of his twos to begin the year with Santa Cruz is a great start, and he has showed some signs of a potentially good closeout attacker:

Though nobody would confuse him for a primary playmaker, there have been some positive signs. Our man on the ground in Santa Cruz, @GSWReddit, points out that PBJ has managed to play within the flow of the offense. He keeps the wheels greased, but still finds opportunities to make plays for others in a connective role. There have even been some solid pick-and-roll reps:

Baldwin Jr. is building the profile of a quality connective, off-ball wing in a motion offense. As his health and confidence continue to build, expect results to match his process in the coming months as the reps start to pile up.

Is There Defense Here?

As a player likely profiled in a helping role, hidden off the ball, PBJ’s job is to secure the glass and get active with his rotations. As evidenced by his 7.2 rebounds per 75, he’s able to use that 6’10” frame to his advantage and be a quality glass cleaner. He doesn’t quite have the physicality to be an impact boxout man, but long reach can make up for that in many instances.

A little more stock (steal + block) production would be nice to see, but as his mobility increases with time I expect those to follow. He still struggles in space on switches against shiftier wings or guards. But he wasn’t a player taken for his defense, so he just has to focus on staying within himself, working on positioning, and continuing to pitch in on the glass.

Keep An Eye Out For…

It’s pretty clear that barring catastrophic injury issues, the majority of Baldwin Jr.’s playing time will be coming with the Sea Dubs this season. Given the construction of the current big club, it’s not an indictment of Baldwin Jr. that he’s not playing with them. If anything, it points to their confidence in Santa Cruz coach Seth Cooper and his coaching staff (including Steve Kerr’s son, whose name I am hesitant to type) putting him in a position to step into a role when called upon.

I’d love to see more defensive flashes on his part, using those arms to disrupt passing lanes and affecting shots. He should continue to let it fly offensively, and the shots will begin to fall. Ideally, some increased playmaking responsibility starts to come his way, and he finds a way to get to the line more than the one free throw he generated in his first five G-League games.

Ryan Rollins, Guard

2022/23 NBA Stats: 7 games played (0 starts), 43 total minutes played

2022/23 G-League Stats: 6 games played, 24.8/3.5/3.5/0.7/0.5 per 75 poss, 55/31/59 splits, 18.8 AST%, 0.73 ATO, .385 3PR, .187 FTR, -10.7 Net Rating

Another developmental future Warrior, Rollins has been a ball of pure energy when playing with the Sea Dubs. He might be a contender within the organization to challenge Jordan Poole for the “eating ridiculous shit while going at full speed” crown. His offensive aggression and overall energy would be welcome additions to the big club roster if he’s able to clean up some facets of his game, but for now, he’s biding his time.

A Constant Downhill Threat

Through his first six games, 43% of Rollins’ offense off of field goals has come in the paint. He’s a constant force attacking the rim, largely looking for his own shot but capable of making plays for others as well:

He’s been the dominant scorer on this Sea Dubs team when on the floor, not afraid to get into the teeth of the defense and use physicality and a solid finishing package to generate offense. His willingness to take a hit to generate offense shows a player without fear:

He’s shown some pretty solid handle and craft to boot, and though it can be a bit chaotic (4.9 turnovers per 75), it’s perfectly fine considering where he is in his developmental cycle. The more he works on his playmaking reps, the further he can clean up those turnover numbers while the assists continue to rise. Rollins has also shown a willingness to push the pace in transition, using his burst and fast-paced handling to take advantage of unsettled defenses:

Though his role as a primary scorer with Santa Cruz has diminished his chances to show connective passing, he’s made some reads with the big club that stood out to me:

This is the kind of cut with the intent to kick out you would normally see from Draymond Green or Kevon Looney, but in this case, it’s Rollins making the read. Though he bobbles on the catch, you can see the intent from the young rookie.

Defense: Some Assembly Required

As much as the offensive flashes have been incredibly encouraging from RR, the defense has not been inspiring. But why take it from me when you can take it from the Michelangelo of Warriors film work, Joe Viray?

Much like Patrick Baldwin Jr., Rollins wasn’t drafted for his defensive prowess, but this rate of dying on screens and allowing dribble penetration is unsustainable. No amount of offensive production will get the Warriors’ coaching staff to overlook this.

If he’s able to clean some of this up to become at least a competent defender, it bodes very well for his future with the big club. His ridiculous +7 wingspan and athleticism point to potential defensive impact down the road and he could very well be an impact defender with repetition and hard work. Until then, he’s destined to ride the pine.

Keep An Eye Out For…

Any signs of defensive life.

With the offensive trajectory Rollins is on and his priors with Toledo, we know he can score the ball. Sure, it would be great to see more perimeter shots fall and fewer turnovers, but he can certainly make an impact on that end. The real question is, can that outweigh his subpar defensive game?

Over the next month when I check in on the Sea Dubs, I’ll be watching his perimeter defense like a hawk. General awareness, effort, or some quality lock-and-trails would be fantastic to see. Hopefully, if he can clean up the technical aspects, his physical tools will lead to a positive overall impact down the line.

Looking Forward

As previously mentioned, the Warriors have four upcoming back-to-backs this month. This is a great opportunity to see some of the end-of-the-rotation pieces in action. Fingers crossed that the development from Jordan Poole and Jonathan Kuminga stays on an upward trajectory because this could be an even more ringing endorsement of the young core a month from now. Until then, keep your eyes peeled.

The post Two Timelines, Part II: Kuminga Up, Wiseman & Moody Down appeared first on Swish Theory.

In Henderson, Nevada, the G League Ignite team looks to enter its third season as an organization. The development program has spent the last two seasons in flux, with many outside the organization questioning whether or not the team is effective in its goals or what they may even be. Now, with a rebrand that establishes the team with a home and identity, Team Ignite is here to prove their goal of creating consummate professionals who are willing to go through whatever it takes to improve.

A Real Home

Moving to the Vegas suburb full-time, “we have a home,” remarked a relieved-sounding Assistant Coach Rod Baker in an exclusive interview. Coach Baker is entering his second season with Team Ignite after previously being a scout for the 76ers. “Last year… even though Vegas was supposed to be our home, it really wasn’t.” In the previous season, G League Ignite spent training days out of Walnut Creek, California, the team’s original home when first established in April 2020. Team Ignite played their home games out of the Michelob ULTRA Arena at Mandalay Bay resort in Las Vegas, but they spent the latter half of the season traveling the United States on the “Ignite Tour.” Now, the team has moved entirely to the Dollar Loan Center in Henderson, with a purple and black rebrand that will reignite the organization. “Shock the System,” the new slogan says. This slogan indicates that Team Ignite is ready to change the system of pre-NBA basketball and is creating an atmosphere that the team has not had before, one of an organization that knows its identity.

The Last Two Seasons

In previous years, G League Ignite has had plenty of criticism for the structure that they’ve established. In the first season, the bubble environment was not adequate for scouting the prospects, and their short season forced scouts to make decisions on very small sample sizes. While top prospects Jalen Green and Jonathan Kuminga still managed to see themselves become top-10 picks, other highly touted prospects Isaiah Todd and Daishen Nix slipped in placement after poor outings in just a few games. In season two, there may have been even less stability. The team was consistently on the road, and the games were often not taken seriously due to the exhibition-centric schedule. “It was almost like you’re playing a scrimmage,” said Director of Performance Ernest DeLosAngeles, also speaking exclusively to Swish Theory. Ernest oversees all aspects of physical development and performance for Team Ignite. “They knew they weren’t going to play in the [championship], so they were just playing these games with nothing really to play for.”

Coach Rod Baker echoed this sentiment: “It was difficult [to win]. It seemed like every game was an exhibition game. When we would come to town…[the NBA competition] would send their guys down and stack their [G League affiliate]. Because it was us.” The tougher competition, mixed with the intense travel schedule, led to a challenging season for the team and saw some players’ draft stock take a hit. Namely, former #2 ranked by RSCI recruit Jaden Hardy, who fell to the 37^th pick of the 2022 NBA Draft. However, with a home in Henderson, Coach DeLosAngeles and Coach Baker feel that the new sense of stability will benefit the team as they embark on a full G League schedule for the team’s first time in history. 

Finding Prospects

When it comes to selecting prospects for the team, Team Ignite makes sure they are bringing in players that fit their brand. Being in Vegas can raise questions, especially for a team housing many young players, but Coach Baker feels like it is a non-issue. “They don’t have a ‘get in trouble’ gene,” he said, “we want character guys who come from character families who see this as an opportunity to realize their dreams.” And character guys they are. Last season, many were shocked by the rise of MarJon Beauchamp, a former 4-star recruit out of Yakima, Washington, who had previously fallen out of love with basketball. After a year of training at Chameleon BX and re-finding himself and his passion for the game through religion, MarJon became a Junior College star at Yakima Community College. G League Ignite then offered him an opportunity to play pro, and he flourished in his role. “We did not run one play for MarJon,” said Coach Baker. However, his hard work ethic and constant on-court effort made him a first-round pick. 

Many of the players that come through the Ignite program exude a similar work ethic and aspiration to get better. When asked what all the prospects have had in common in the last three years, Coach DeLosAngeles responded with “[their] genuine interest in getting better.” Team Ignite has pitched its program as an opportunity to become a professional. This team allows young prospects to separate themselves from the college lifestyle, learn NBA sets, and play with NBA rules against some of the best talents in the world. Unlike the alternative of playing internationally, they can play in the United States, under the NBA umbrella, and reap the rewards of these resources. “[We are] instilling professional habits in them,” Coach DeLosAngeles continued, “that’s been the best feedback I’ve gotten from across the league. [The prospects]…have already developed those habits.”

Former Ignite alumni like Dyson Daniels and Jalen Green have exhibited this willingness to learn. Dyson Daniels and Pelicans Assistant Coach Fred Vinson have built a rapport with one another as they consistently work on Daniels’ shooting form. After the first preseason game of the 2022 season, Jalen Green said in a postgame interview, “I try to be as coachable as possible.” The players on Team Ignite recognize their flaws as players and are willing to improve their game and give into a routine. 

However, these players aren’t just highly driven, hard-working, and ready to learn. A sense of confidence comes with taking the G League route over a more traditional college experience. Players are betting on themselves, their ability to soak up information, and their willingness to improve by opting to play pro and losing their amateur status. While the G League does offer a salary, many have worried about how the new Name, Image, and Likeness (NIL) rules could affect future G League Ignite recruitment. NIL rules allow college athletes to profit off their name, image, and likeness, and these laws are still expanding and being manipulated today due to being very new and causing an extreme shift in the amateur landscape.

The NIL implementation has already made waves in college basketball, with players like Ant Black being recruited to Arkansas via a Walmart deal or Nigel Pack getting $800k to play two seasons at the University of Miami. Many believe these laws have already impacted Team Ignite’s recruitment, with them getting zero single-year prospects out of American high schools this season. Coach Rod Baker, however, believes it is a non-issue. “We don’t even really think about it,” Coach Baker said, “if you’re coming here just for the money, it’s not going to work.” Team Ignite has managed to narrow down its list of potential players simply by having them accept offers at NCAA institutions with promises of money in return. While Ignite pays a salary, the commitment to the program is about getting better in a pro setting, not solely immediate financial gain. “You’re going to come to Ignite to realize your dreams,” Coach Baker continued, “it’s the difference between short and long money.”

Putting Together a Team

So far, Team Ignite has had a pretty good track record of getting players drafted. In two years, the team has had six players get drafted, and two receive two-way contracts immediately after draft day. This season, the team has its most diverse roster to date, with veterans who fit the mold of the team’s vision. “We wanted to get younger [veterans],” Coach Baker said. “We wanted to get guys who can still impact the game, and I think we’ve done that.” In previous seasons, the veteran slots were often allotted to older players, many of whom have looked to make a move into the Player Development space. Former G League Ignite alumni Jarrett Jack and Reggie Hearn have secured Player Development positions with teams. Last year’s roster of Pooh Jeter, Amir Johnson, and, for a short time, CJ Miles, showed that G League Ignite was willing to bring in older veterans to mentor their players.

However, even with Jeter remaining a member of the roster, this year’s team seems to have pivoted to younger players who still have plenty of experience. Newly added 31-year-old John Jenkins brings in a shooting prowess that team Ignite missed while also having a unique path from which the prospects can learn. Jenkins was a first-round pick out of Vanderbilt in 2012, playing seven seasons on and off in the NBA before playing for BCM Gravelines-Dunkerque in France. Sharpshooters Aubrey Dawkins and Cameron Young are both in their mid-twenties, spending most of their careers in the G League or overseas. Marcus Graves spent last season with the Stockton Kings, and provides Team Ignite with another ball-handler who can make plays. Eric Mika and James Southerland round out the veterans, who have had lengthy careers overseas. This new group of veterans has come from many walks of life but are all at G League Ignite to get better and mentor these prospects. Their ability to space the floor and move the ball makes them key players for Team Ignite this season.

Training and Mentoring

In terms of the training and mentoring process, Coach DeLosAngeles breaks down how the team goes about training prospects and veterans. “Leading up to the season, we break them into two groups: prospects and veterans.” Coach DeLosAngeles corrects himself, calling the veterans “older guys” because some veterans are still relatively young and early in their careers. “We want [the prospects] to get acquainted with each other, and then we start mixing in the older guys. We make them interact in the weight room.. and we do this strategically based [on] who we thought would be a good mentor for whatever prospect it was.” Many of the prospects this season have come into Team Ignite with more experience than in previous years, and Coach DeLosAngeles has also noticed this go into training. “Everybody’s training is different based on their training age.” Training age is a term many physical trainers use to explain the amount of time an athlete has undergone physical training. The more physical training you have received in your life, the further ahead you are in your training age. This year’s roster has had many players who have been in professional environments.

Because of this, the weight room has come a bit easier, and the players have given in to using training as competitive fuel. “You see the competitive nature [in the players] when given certain tasks in the weight room,” Coach DeLosAngeles said, “that instinct to show up the person next to me.” This competitive drive surrounds Team Ignite, an aura that each member of the team and staff carries with them. And with a fusion of experienced, skilled veterans and some unique prospects, Team Ignite seems poised to take on their incoming season. 

Looking At This Year’s Prospects

As previously mentioned, this year’s class of prospects has an unusual amount of experience coming into G League Ignite. Star player and the projected #2 pick in the 2023 NBA Draft, Scoot Henderson, enters his second season with team Ignite. In his first year, Henderson averaged (per 70) 17.1 points, 5.8 rebounds and 5.0 assists. As a two-year player, Henderson spent most of his first season coming off the bench for Ignite. However he often was the best prospect on the court, having multiple 30-point games and taking over games with his high motor and quick reflexes.

Scoot is joined in the backcourt by Frenchman Sidy Cissoko, who has spent his years growing up in the Baskonia Vitoria-Gasteiz system in Spain. He made his debut for the Baskonia senior team in their 2021-22 season, but was quickly sent to Juarista ICB in the Spanish second league. Cissoko struggled to stand out, but looks to find his niche here with Team Ignite.

In the frontcourt, one of the more promising prospects on the team is Canadian forward Leonard Miller. Although Miller was draft-eligible last season, he opted to take the G League Ignite route after a suboptimal performance at the NBA Draft Combine. Leonard is a 6’11” forward with great ball-handling abilities and quick movements that make him a versatile defender. Miller spent his last year at Fort Erie Academy in Canada, making him the least experienced single-year prospect on G League Ignite this season.

Also in the frontcourt with Miller is Center Efe Abogidi. Abogidi spent two seasons at Washington State University, averaging (per 70), 16.0 points, 11.5 rebounds and 3.6 blocks. An athletic rim runner and rim protector, Efe brings something team Ignite greatly missed last season. He also provides Scoot with a PnR lob threat, a connection that likely will be seen plenty of times throughout the season.

And finally, the last but one of the most intriguing single-year prospects on Team Ignite is Mojave King. King is an Australian swingman who played his previous two years in the National Basketball League (NBL). After a tough season with the Cairns Taipans, King played with the Adelaide 36ers after the departure of Josh Giddey. However, King found himself getting inconsistent minutes, and was put into many situations that did not fit his game. The former NBA Academy standout grew up next to Giddey and former Ignite alumni Dyson Daniels, sometimes even outplaying both of them when sharing the same court. King looks to prove he is right there with the two former top-10 picks and Team Ignite provides him the platform to do so. 

There are also two two-year players on the roster this season. London Johnson is a Jamaican-American from Norcross, Georgia. A former teammate of Scoot Henderson, Johnson is a 6’4” guard with a knack for scoring the basketball. The other two-year prospect is Babacar Sane, a NBA African Academy standout who spent the last season playing in the Basketball Africa League (BAL). In an interview with Andscape, Sane said he sees this as an opportunity to represent the continent of Africa and show what they can do. Babacar’s journey has been one that many in NBA circles have followed, as he has been a part of the Sports for Education and Economic Development (SEED project) for standouts in the NBA academies, and now hopes to become the 2nd African-born player to get drafted from G League Ignite. On integrating the two-year players, Coach Baker reminded of the management of Scoot Henderson in the previous season. “I don’t know if he started any games last year,” Coach said (he started the final two games only), “and this is this guy that’s going to be the number one or two pick in this upcoming draft. Those two-year guys know that their path is a little different [than the one-year players], but it’s about the development.” 

The Upcoming Grind

Now with a full 50-game schedule, there may be more opportunity to develop the two-year players in-game, although some changes will be made when it comes to practice and training. In the last 3 seasons, Team Ignite’s number of games have almost doubled yearly (from 13, to 27, now 53 including exhibitions). The players may now have one of the more rigorous schedules of any of their other draft class counterparts, playing more games with more extensive travel. “The one thing that we focused on was trying to get the guys in a little bit earlier just to build the capacity to be able to handle the demands that they’re going to be faced with the next week,” Coach DeLosAngeles said. This mental and physical preparation is key to not just their G League season, but preparing for the rigor of the NBA. “They gotta get used to the grind,” Coach Baker said, “Packing that suitcase, unpacking that suitcase…getting to the plane, getting to the arena, all those things they’re going to have to get used to.” With the added travel and extra games, Coach Baker recognizes some of the loss that comes with it. “For me, it’s 20 less days of practice which is 20 less days of development.” However, the additional playing experience will help offset this loss of practice, as the players get more meaningful reps and more chances to showcase their abilities.

Team Ignite opened their season with two exhibition games against Metropolitans-92 and top prospect Victor Wembanyama. The teams split the games in what was one of the best showings of basketball in recent memory. The two top prospects in Wembanyama and Henderson went at each other in the first game, trading buckets and defensive stops, each taking over the game whenever they pleased. In the second game however, Henderson went down early with an ankle injury after a collision with Wembanyama, and Mets-92 managed to hold off Team Ignite to secure the win, despite great showings by Mojave King and Leonard Miller. Now, the team starts their G League season on November 4th against the Oklahoma City Blue in their regular season debut at their new home in Henderson. 

Setting Up The Future

When it comes to the on-court production, the team tries to play their prospects in roles that will translate to the NBA, something that many other teams cannot provide. “Not everybody is going to be Jalen Green,” says Coach Baker, “what role are you going to play when you get [to the NBA]? That’s what we’re trying to prepare them for.” What Team Ignite has done in the last two seasons is provide an alternate avenue for pre-NBA basketball, however this next season proves to have a greater meaning. Without distractions of college or NIL, and now with an identity and a home in Henderson, G League Ignite allows the players an opportunity to focus solely on basketball and self-improvement. “It’s about getting better,” said Coach Baker. “Try and build as many good habits as you can,” echoes Coach DeLosAngeles. 

The staff is dedicated to improving the players to be the best in their roles on and off the court. G League Ignite is molding players who understand how to become the best they can be. With a class of upstanding talent, they look to prove once again that they are here to shock the system.

The post Shock The System: The 2023 G-League Ignite appeared first on Swish Theory.