NOW THERE HE GO, THERE HE GO, THERE HE GO!!!

(sorry, I really couldn’t help it.)

Terrible jokes aside, it really is time for Golden State to give Patrick Baldwin Jr. his fair shake, for three important reasons.

First: The State of the Cap

It’s no secret that Golden State is starved for secondary and tertiary rotation pieces. Their starters are as good as any in basketball, countered with a bench struggling for production and consistency. Coach Steve Kerr has been looking up and down for winning bench combinations, and many have given up on the current personnel being able to cobble together a competent second unit.

This has led to an overreliance on Anthony Lamb, one of Golden State’s two-way finds. His hot shooting stretch and defensive energy have given coach Steve Kerr no choice but to give him a seemingly unlimited leash, despite the constant defensive miscues that would get most players in his system benched or demoted. But Kerr been somewhat boxed into this situation by the construction of the roster and health concerns throughout the year.

There are also some short and long-term ramifications to playing Lamb this frequently from a money perspective, something Golden State is not eager to spend more of, considering the astronomical $372M bill for this current squad. He’s clocked 40 of his 50 two-way games with 33 games remaining, meaning a standard contract conversion has to come soon if they want to remain reliant on him.

In the long term, Lamb will be expiring at the end of the year. At 25 years old with some good-looking splits, a team looking for wing depth this offseason will buy the fool’s gold, offering him an expanded role or more money (likely both) than Golden State can give. Meanwhile, Patrick Baldwin Jr. has three remaining years on his rookies-scale deal after the season, coming in at $2.34M, $2.45M, and $4.42M. With a tough offseason upcoming, the potential to find cheap rotation pieces is at an all-time low, especially if minimum vets aren’t looking at Golden State as a top-tier ring-chasing destination.

I’m not defending the way the roster was built, or the corner the front office has painted itself into. But these are the harsh realities of the most expensive roster in North American sports outside of the New York “F*** Your Tax Rules” Mets. They are financially incentivized to turn PBJ into a contributor in the short term as much as the long term.

Second: The Offensive Utility is There

In general, 15 threes attempted per 100 possessions is the benchmark for elite deep shooter volume. Three Warriors currently sit at that mark for the season: Stephen Curry, Klay Thompson, and guess who? In fact, Baldwin Jr.’s 18.1 threes attempted per 100 is tops on the team. Sample size plays a role here, as Baldwin Jr. has only 127 minutes with the big club. But with the G League, PBJ is getting up 10.3 threes per 100 in 9 showcase games, and 12.2 in his two regular season games. There’s certainly a baseline of being willing to shoot, which can be half the battle with young snipers.

He’s also canning 37% of his combined threes between the G and the NBA, which is even more impressive given the difficulty of his diet in the G and the lack of consistency in terms of “which Dubs team am I playing for this week?”. Consider his high-school pedigree as a deadly shooter, the willingness to let it fly, a near-impossible release to contest, and the instant results in the NBA (44.9% to date). That is the profile of a ready-made floor spacing 4.

Beyond the numbers, he has shown advanced relocation skills for his age. He knows how to find angles and make himself available for Golden State’s numerous passers. PBJ is more than willing to chop his feet and move, confident in his ability to quickly set his base and let it fly. That is an important skill in this motion offense, and he’s shown potential to be a plus movement shooter coming off screens or handoffs.

It’s true that Anthony Lamb (who only keeps getting mentioned here as the guy taking his potential minutes) has shot well from deep throughout the year, hitting 40% of his 3.5 attempts per game. But there is a documented history of Lamb being streaky across multiple seasons. Here are his percentages from his seasons at Vermont and in the League: 41, 32, 37, 29, 32, 40. History tells us he’s just as likely to be well below average as above 40%. He’s also shooting better on above-the-break threes this year than in the corner, another sign of potentially false results. Who knows when the luck will finally run out?

On top of potentially great shooting, Baldwin Jr. has shown a willingness to get inside the arc on cuts and closeout attacks, which will form the majority of his non-shooting offense. His length again plays an important role here, giving him a finishing ability that Lamb cannot match:

Third: Defense is Better Than You Expect

Anyone who reads my stuff, follows my account, or watches enough Warriors games should know that Lamb is a serial overhelper and off-ball fouler. Besides recent incidents of Draymond Green calling out Lamb for helping off the strong side and Steph Curry getting frustrated with Lamb for fouling Kristaps Porzingis multiple times off the ball (which Lamb did not seem to be receptive to), he constantly gets them in trouble by drifting off the ball and jumping to provide help where none is necessary:

It’s also important to remember Lamb has played in 66 NBA games to date. Not exactly full of experience, and it’s understandable that he makes mistakes.

But Patrick Baldwin Jr. is arguably less mistake-prone despite being five years his junior, and though Lamb can hold up at the point of attack against big (preferably slow) wings, there are things PBJ can do that Lamb simply cannot.

Look at this possession below. Steers his mismatch into the help, recovers to the weak side of the rim and spikes Onyeka Okongwu’s layup back down to earth. The extra 4-5 inches he has on Lamb give some potential rotational rim protection juice, something Golden State is in desperate need of considering the state of their frontcourt reserves.

Though he’s not going to be a stopper anytime soon, he’s more than capable of cleaning up defensive possessions on the glass, another major area of struggle for Golden State this year. Opponents have seen a 11.6% jump in offensive rebounds from last year to the current, per basketball-reference.com. There is an immediate need to get out of the red on the glass.

For the season, Lamb ranks eighth on the Dubs in terms of total defensive rebounding percentage at 13.8%, behind both Steph Curry and Donte DiVincenzo. Meanwhile, PBJ’s 17.9% mark sits only behind Kevon Looney, James Wiseman, Draymond Green, and JaMychal Green (read: their entire frontcourt). With sample size considered, his percentage clears 15% in the G League as well in his 290 minutes. Statistical evidence and tape show he may already be the superior rebounder, which is important considering their lack of size on the inside.

While his defensive game isn’t a 1:1 comparison to Lamb’s, he can provide different elements that Golden State is in need of. If he could provide the occasional impact rotation and generate an uptick on the glass while playing within himself (AKA not wildly overhelping), he could be a solid cog in their unit as a true 4.

In Short: Play The Man Before You Pay The Man

If Golden State is as inactive at the trade deadline as the experts expect them to be, they will need to find some new dimensions from inside this current roster. Ryan Rollins, Moses Moody, and James Wiseman have proven themselves unprepared for rotation minutes. It would seem to behoove Golden State to see what they have right now in Patrick Baldwin Jr.

Anthony Lamb’s minutes aren’t making or breaking (well, maybe the latter) this rotation right now. They have already put themselves in a difficult spot in the standings, but still seem likely to make the playoffs regardless, albeit facing an uphill battle in terms of seeding. The time is now to try new things and see if you can add a new facet to the team down the stretch. If they catch lightning in a bottle by turning a 28th-overall-selection rookie into a usable role player, it improves both their short and long-term outlook in a time where both need a serious boost. What do they have to lose by trying?

The post It’s Patrick Baldwin Jr. Time! appeared first on Swish Theory.

Note: Players are sorted chronologically by the time they were drafted; this is a ranking of these players in NO WAY. All stats will be points/rebs/assists/steals/blocks, splits will be 2PT/3PT/FT. Stats current as of 12/31, only December games counted

Jordan Poole, Guard

December Stats: 15 games (14 starts), 28.9/2.9/4.2/0.5/0.2 per 75 poss, 56/33/89 splits, 21.5 AST%, 0.91 ATO, .324 FTR, .475 3PR

Well, it’s been a month for the fourth-year combo guard.

With Steph and Andrew Wiggins missing the latter half of December, Jordan Poole has become the primary catalyst for Golden State’s offense and has more than performed. He scored the eighth most total points of any player in the last month of 2022, shouldering a load he didn’t look capable of carrying early this season.

What’s more important is the lack of total cratering offensively for the whole team. Without their MVP-level Curry or second-most consistent scorer in Wiggins, Golden State should be one of the worst offenses in the league. Being the seventh-worst offense in their absence is far better than it sounds.

So, how is Poole keeping Golden State alive offensively as they navigate their time sans All-Stars?

Finally, Offensive Consistency

Within Poole’s 27 points per game in December are a lot of very encouraging developments. His drives per game have jumped from 8.8 to 10.9 in Steph’s absence, showing a consistent willingness to get downhill. Unsurprisingly, his free-throw attempts have jumped from 3.5 to 6.5 per game in the same time frame. Jordan is playing like the rim-pressure threat we know he can be.

The increase in paint pressure hasn’t led to the sort of playmaking boost you’d like to see, but with a lack of scoring options around him, it’s hard to blame Poole for hunting his shot a bit more over the past 8 games (19.1 AST% compared to 26.1% w/ Steph). It’s also resulted in a slight uptick in his total free-throw rate and a decline in his three-point rate over the month of December relative to his season averages, showing a player determined to find quality looks. What stands out to me most is the confidence he has rediscovered, pulling out all sorts of mixtape moves and finishing deep threes, wild finishes, and dribble moves with his funky celebrating style.

Though still not hitting the efficiency numbers he is capable of, Poole has displayed the confidence in his shot that we’ve been waiting to see. 32.6% from deep in December isn’t jumping off the page, but he’s getting up over 9 attempts per game. He was at 35% from deep in December before Steph went down, so here’s hoping he can find more impact going forward. The off-ball flashes this month will come in handy when Golden State’s MVP returns.

One thing to remember with Poole’s shooting: being solid enough, in consideration of the difficulty of his shot diet, does a lot to the defense. Take a player like Luka Dončić. This is the first time in five years making an above league-average percentage of threes, but his shot difficulty and frequency are incomparable to any other shooter. Defenses have to respect the looks, even if not hitting in the 40% range like the elite perimeter shot makers. Poole ending up in a similar space perimeter-wise would go a long way toward enhancing his drives and overall playmaking.

This all adds up to consistency. In December, Poole strung together four straight games with 20+ PPG on three separate occasions. Up until then, he only had one back-to-back 20-point performance. That is a player who has found the reliability this team so desperately needed.

Defense Still Theoretical

Unfortunately, reviews aren’t as glowing about Poole’s defense. He is still a weak link in their faltering armor, ranking as one of their worst defenders in terms of total opponent FG% and being routinely attacked in screen actions. They still have the back-line defenders to make up for the deficiencies when playing with the starters, but it needs to be better.

When building a defensive profile from the ground up, any signs of life are welcome. He can be pretty good when engaged and staying within himself, acting as a cog within the system:

It’s the off-ball lapses that still drive people a bit nutty, including myself. His tendency to follow the ball often leads to his man slipping away for cuts or finding extra room on the perimeter. Again, if he stays within himself and focuses only on his own man, Golden State has the defenders to make an impact if he contains his responsibilities.

Until we see tangible improvement on the whole, all we have to hold on to are the flashes. Hopefully, those flashes become trends in the new year.

Keep An Eye Out For…

What happens when Steph comes back?

Will Poole revert to his bench self from early in the year, struggling to make an impact? Or can he keep up this confidence and bring it to a bench unit starved for the offense he has been providing recently?

This is what it comes down to for me. He’s found the offensive consistency I called for in the last edition, and the new challenge is to keep the momentum going once Curry returns to the forefront of the offense. This version of Jordan Poole with a healthy starting unit gives Golden State as good of a top-six as any team in the league.

James Wiseman, Big

December Stats: 9 games (0 starts), 20.3/10/1.1/0.4/1.1 per 75 poss, 65/50/68 splits, .294 FTR, 15.9 TRB%, 0.5 ATO

The pariah of Warriors Twitter showed signs of life to close the year, finding a way to make an impact with Golden State desperate for impact off the bench in the frontcourt.

Between November 7th and December 14th, Wiseman found himself playing in only 2 of Golden State’s 19 contests as he was moved down to Santa Cruz. Now he’s recorded playing time in 7 of the last 8 games, filling valuable minutes with many a Warrior out of the lineup; most notably, JaMychal Green has missed the last 6. But he’s not just a warm body, receiving more trust from Steve Kerr than ever before. How has James Wiseman accomplished this?

Impact Rebounding

Kevon Looney is one of the important cogs of Golden State’s defense for his ability to finish possessions, collecting 33% of available defensive rebounds when on the floor. JaMychal Green has been a serviceable player on the glass when Kevon sits, and his absence leaves the Warriors with only questions on the glass when going to the bench. Fortunately, Wiseman has found a way to step up.

In the month of December, only Looney has posted a higher share of defensive rebounds than Wiseman’s 35.1% mark. He’s looking more the part in addition to the statistical increases, using his frame to find bodies with more consistency and his length to reach the boards only some can get.

The increase in activity and technical skill has been a boon for his individual numbers, though not quite leading to the success for others you see out of Looney. He’ll have to improve at boxing his man out to get rebounding chances for the transition handlers, but he’s looking more the part of the 7-foot glass cleaner they had in mind.

Improved Drop Coverage

Wiseman has also found a way to create more impact with his defensive coverage. His spatial awareness in drop has looked better than it did early in the season, showing better hand activity and footwork to boot. You can see it all on display against Jalen Brunson on this drive:

A lot of his frustrating possessions have been marked by deep drops where guards can take short floaters or eat up space and get semi-contested shots at the rim. He’s starting to get a little higher to wall drives off earlier, showing increased confidence in his ability to recover backward and close off lobs or the weak side of the rim.

Though his opponent rim numbers haven’t shown improvement (75% in December), he sat at 66% before his recent call-up which was in Kevon Looney territory. Where the real improvement lies is in the distribution and limitation of the short midrange. Before the demotion, 33% of his paint attempts came in the short midrange, with opponents hitting 58% of those looks. Over this recent stretch, 47% of his paint attempts are short midrange, with opponents hitting only 31%. His exploration with a higher drop is creating a higher percentage of tough shots that he is contesting instead of giving up.

Part of what disappointed me with Wiseman’s defense early this year was the lack of variability. Ballhandlers, poppers, and rollers knew what to expect. A little more unpredictability could go a long way.

Finding Better Screen Angles

Another big struggle from the beginning of the season was impact screening. Wiseman still has a hard time finding the right way to get a true wipeout screen, but there have been improvements in his processing of where to be. You can see him making small adjustments based on the ballhandler and defender more often, and finding opportunities to slip on a regular basis.

When he’s actually making an impact with the screen, he’s shown some decisive possessions going downhill and finishing at the rim.

Positive strides in using screens for himself and for others are a great sign for his projected usage. The improved results should give him something to build on as the second half of the season approaches, and more importantly the eventual returns of JaMychal Green, Andrew Wiggins, and Steph Curry.

Keep An Eye Out For…

The impending rotation crunch.

If Golden State gets back to full health soon, will Wiseman have a role or return to Santa Cruz? That upcoming decision looms large over his next month. If staying around, building on his rebounding and screening impact could keep him in a low-minute role on a nightly basis. But if sent back down, James has to show he can dominate physically in the G while filling in his responsibilities as a 5.

Jonathan Kuminga, Forward

December Stats: 15 games (2 starts), 15.2/5.7/2.6/1.1/0.5 per 75 poss, 59/27/63 splits, .245 3PR, .422 FTR, 18.1 TRB%, 1.71 ATO

It’s apparent to anyone who watched Jonathan Kuminga’s development that his defensive impact is here to stay.

With Andrew Wiggins missing all but two games in December, Kuminga has been relied on as the top perimeter defender on the team, and the results are showing.

He’s making impact defensive possessions when Golden State needs them most. His rip on PJ Washington and defense on Damian Lillard to close tough wins during their recent four-game win streak show off how he can be a weapon anywhere. Defending bigger forwards, quicker guards, scoring wings, it’s all the same.

Let’s look closer at the breakout over the past month.

A Future All-Defensive Player Blooms

I have a hard time even counting the jaw-dropping perimeter possessions from Jonathan Kuminga this past month. His shutdown on Jordan Clarkson in a clutch situation against Utah was perhaps one of the most impressive:

His ability to guard any kind of ballhandler has put other teams on notice. With Memphis starving to get back in the game against the Dubs, they did everything they could to switch Kuminga off the ball to create offense, and he responded with quality help:

Adding to his excellent perimeter defense and blossoming help, he’s putting in more work on the glass. Finding the right spots to use his excellent vertical takes advantage of boxouts, and he can throw his weight around to deter glass crashers to boot. That approach will leave him with a well-rounded defensive game sooner than later, and his impact will be felt all over that end of the floor in due time.

There aren’t many words left to describe Kuminga’s defense other than begging you to track him on every defensive possession when he’s on the floor while Andrew Wiggins is out, and note the responsibilities he is given. And you can listen to Steve Kerr:

Taking His Drives

While Kuminga’s defense rightly gets the majority of the attention, he’s taking strides on offense as well. His drives per game have gone from 3.0 in October and November to 4.7 in December. On the season, he generates the fourth-highest percentage of points per drive among regular Warriors players. Adding more high-efficiency plays to a team lacking some primary offensive options has helped keep them afloat in important situations.

He’s showing off a variety of ways to beat the defense beyond his usual power-speed combination, showcasing footwork and off-hand finishing as a usable counter when he can’t get downhill instantly:

He’s shown himself to be capable of the spectacular as well, putting some Curry-esque high glass finishes off his drives:

What I’ve also enjoyed seeing is leveraging the playmaking for others. Kuminga has a higher pass percentage on drives than Steph, JP, and Draymond this season, showing a willingness to collapse the defense and find cutters or shooters. He’s finally starting to put results behind the intent. These slower drives give him better body control in addition to an extra tick to read the floor.

Last month I hoped to see more from Kuminga on his drives, and he has delivered when Golden State has needed offense more than ever. Further development as a drive-and-kick or rim-attack threat would majorly improve the Dubs’ offensive outlook going forward.

Stable Cutting

The Warriors rely on cutting as much as any team (97th percentile frequency this season, per Synergy) and Kuminga has taken strides to fit in. He ranks fifth on the team in total cut frequency and generates the sixth-highest PPP (1.29) which is a whisker above the team’s 1.283 average.

Over the past month, Kuminga’s cutting has proven crucial in clutch situations. His recognition of when to pick the right spot is apparent on this patient cut:

His physical tools and ability to pick good spots can be used to open things up for others, and he’s starting to recognize that:

Being a proficient driver and cutter would be all Golden State needs out of Kuminga offensively, given the personnel around him and his defensive value. He’s already pretty solid at both and seems to grow at a rapid pace. Who knows where his offensive value may lie by the end of the season?

Keep An Eye Out For…

Kuminga’s upcoming questions are similar to Wiseman’s, only in different degrees. When Steph, Wiggins, and JaMychal return to the lineup, where does Kuminga lie in the rotation? Is he 7th behind Poole, 8th behind Donte DiVincenzo, or has he solidified the inside track to a playoff rotation spot? And if so, can he stay at the level he’s displayed over the past month?

Moses Moody, Wing

December Stats: 14 games (2 starts), 10.8/2.8/2/0.7/0 per 75 poss, 58/46/75 splits, .583 3PR, .067 FTR, 3.75 ATO

Last month, I wrote about Moses Moody’s lack of playing time, which you can catch up on here. Steve Kerr outlined clear concerns for the sophomore wing, and he managed to deliver in December. Let’s look at what Moses built on in his limited playing time.

Taking Care of the Rock

Kerr outlined two main issues for Moody when previously asked about playing time concerns: turnovers and defending without fouling. He certainly delivered on the offensive end of that equation. In a November riddled with DNPs, Moody turned the ball over 10 times in 11 contests. That number was cut to 4 giveaways in 15 December games.

It didn’t come at the expense of his playmaking. His assists rose from 8 in November to 15 in December, turning his ATO from 0.8 to 3.75. It’s rarely spectacular, but he is finding spots to drive and find teammates, especially to the corners. He’s limiting his exposure to long ballhandling sequences with quick passes like these:

He can still be prone to the mistakes Kerr called out, like forced entry passes that aren’t lobbed or bounced. The ones like you see below are a major sticking point with the coaching staff.

If he cleans these up and continues to keep the ball flowing without mistakes, that would show a lot of growth.

Staying Ready

Unsurprisingly, Moody has a knack for coming off the bench cold and performing. He’s always been a hard worker and competitor who wants to contribute any way he can, including a variety of timely shots throughout the past month.

His confidence has permeated through his game despite some rough stretches. Constructive criticism from the coaching staff hasn’t deterred him from picking spots to be aggressive and use his physical tools.

He canned 43% of his 2.5 looks per game from deep in December, showing a player unshaken by early struggles and capable of hot stretches. For offensive purposes, better results from deep and limited turnovers with enough connective playmaking could put him back into consideration for a consistent bench spot.

Showing Defensive Potential

One and a half seasons in, Moody hasn’t shown the impact perimeter defense we saw in college on a regular basis. He’s prone to positioning issues and getting himself in trouble that he’s not capable of recovering from. Bigger wings have given him trouble, and quicker guards can get past him for now. But it’s the footwork to go with his length that could help him be a better overall deterrent:

Golden State has a strong rotation of defensive wings, but the absence of Andrew Wiggins has necessitated further depth on that end. Positive signs that Moody can be part of the unit without breaking are welcome. As usual, his help has been quality, especially when tasked with paint responsibilities where footwork and length play a major role:

Keep An Eye Out For…

The goal for last month was just to get more minutes. Now that he has that, can he build on some positive momentum?

If he continues to take care of the ball, plays more solid defense, and the shot continues to fall, it’s hard to justify keeping him out of bench minutes. Even if two of those three things are happening, he should have a more consistent role. It speaks to Golden State’s depth that he’s playing better and still on the outside looking in.

Moody will have to do a lot to put himself in consideration for the playoff rotation over the coming months, but let’s hope January is another step in that direction.

Patrick Baldwin Jr., Forward

December Stats: 7 games (0 starts), 20.8/4.4/1.1/0.5/0 per 75 poss, 33/52/50 splits, .778 3PR, .09 FTR, 18.6 DREB%, 1.0 ATO

Possibly the most unexpected development over the last month is Patrick Baldwin Jr.’s emergence.

After getting himself into 4 games over the first two months of the season, spending the majority of his time in the G-League, Baldwin found himself thrust into 7 contests as Golden State’s injury concerns deepen. And wow, did he look ready.

Shooting the Damn Thing

Baldwin’s 11.25 three-point attempts per 75 possessions ranked first among all Warriors in the month of December, and not by accident. Hitting 52% of those looks is eye-popping, and the way he does it looks very sustainable.

He’s great at keeping his feet active and finding angles, and that release point is damn near unguardable. Baldwin Jr. isn’t going to be a star rim pressure guy anytime soon, but he’s found ways to leverage his shooting success into closeout attacks. Besides, does the volume of free throws or rim looks matter when your 6’10” forward has endless confidence, a lethally quick release for his size, and elite shotmaking potential?

In this Golden State offense, he can be a massive weapon even in limited minutes. The bench has struggled to find consistent offense all year, and it now appears a PBJ three is one of their better options. The way he keeps himself moving will translate to good offense as long as he’s around:

He’s slowly becoming a silent killer, and the team is beginning to recognize that. As Klay said after their wild double overtime win in Atlanta, Patrick Baldwin Jr. is putting the “jelly” in PBJ.

There Might Be a Defender Here?

PBJ wasn’t drafted for his defense, and has shown the value pretty clearly on the offensive side of the ball. But he still has to learn to pick his spots on defense and stay responsible, even if he won’t be tasked with the most important assignments on the whole.

Not a skilled point-of-attack defender or rim protector, PBJ’s defensive tasks will be position and rotation-based. And there are good signs he knows what he is, and where to be:

Playing within yourself is one of my favorite traits for a defender. Knowing you aren’t the first, second, or third best defender on the court is a valuable skill all by itself. Watch Anthony Lamb run around like Draymond, overhelping like a fat uncle on Thanksgiving, and you’ll start to appreciate what Baldwin Jr. does.

He sticks in the lane to use his frame for rebounds, and picks his chances to rotate and make an impact:

Does enough to funnel Dejounte into the help when mismatched, then waits out the entry pass to pick up his teammates who just shouldered his drive. This is the stuff you want to see.

With PBJ’s offensive talents, finding little ways to contribute defensively will go a long way towards solidifying rotation minutes in the future.

Keep An Eye Out For…

Let’s build on this confidence, shall we?

It seems unlikely that he survives the impending rotation crunch, but he could make an outright case to steal JaMychal Green’s minutes at the 4 in the interim. If neither offer all that much defensively, why not play the true stretch 4 who can keep the ball moving?

Continue to let it rip from deep, provide credible rotations and secondary rebounding help for the bigs, and PBJ might just find himself with a nightly role after being written off as a potential contributor in the preseason. Hell, he might just play his way into a permanent fixture on the team.

Ryan Rollins, Guard

2022/23 NBA Stats: 60 total minutes, 12.3/5.9/3.6/0.6/0.6 per 75 poss, 30/33/100 splits, 6/16 ATO

2022/23 G-League Stats: 25.6/5.3/5.2/1.4/0.4 per 36 mins, 55/37/71 splits, .385 3PR, .179 FTR, 24.9 AST%, 1.41 ATO, 29.4% USG

Rollins being the only rookie-scale Warrior to appear in December and not improve their overall outlook says a lot more about Golden State’s other players than it does about Rollins.

He’s still looking pretty overmatched in his NBA minutes, as the 16 turnovers in 60 minutes and -49 net rating would indicate, but he’s looking like quite the player in the G League. Without NBA minutes on the horizon, seeing DNPs in all of Golden State’s last five wins, we still have to look for things in his G-League minutes.

Still a Riverboat Gambler

His defensive stats indicate a solid ability to pilfer the ball, but Rollins’ defense is still a bit frustrating to watch.

He LOVES to jump the gap in passing lanes and go for the pick-six, but often misses the window and pays big defensively. As I mentioned before with PBJ, playing within yourself on defense is a valuable trait, one Rollins does not possess at the moment. The massive wingspan for his size and athletic qualities certainly give him the ability to make these jumps on passes, but few players can consistently make that play without taking on water defensively when they miss.

Digs off the perimeter like you see below are where he needs to make his impact. That reach can close gaps faster than most guards can, and being a great help defender is impossible without tools. He just needs the process to match his gifts.

He’s not prone to lapses and can make some solid play recognitions, but his size deficiencies leave him fighting an uphill battle against wings or bigger guards. Don’t expect Rollins to be the switch-friendliest defender in this system.

There are flashes of a decent POA and better help defender in there, but we’re a ways away from rotation-caliber defense by Steve Kerr’s standards.

The Young Young Bull?

The good news for Rollins is that the offense has already translated up a level. After showing strong prowess on the glamour end of the floor at Toledo, Rollins has proven to be Santa Cruz’s best on-ball playmaker out of the gate.

His near 30% usage mark and sheer scoring volume are welcome signs for a team that has lacked a true backup scoring point guard since… Jarrett Jack? Rollins gets himself downhill frequently, showing some solid finishing with enough of a midrange/floater/runner package to present real counters to the defense.

Guards of his ilk tend to be one speed with few tendencies, but he has a strong sense of when to slow things up and use a change of speeds to create opportunities for himself or for teammates, as you see on this PNR with James Wiseman:

The potential for a quality on-ball game is only complemented by his off-ball shooting chops, which are on the rise. Guards with strictly on-ball value don’t last long in Golden State; you need to move without the ball, and it helps to have a quick and effective release:

Keep An Eye Out For…

Continued G-League dominance.

As the G rolls through their regular season, Rollins’ role has the potential to keep growing. He looks like a Quad-A athlete right now, too good for the minors but not quite ready for the majors. What it’s really about is proving yourself as a rosterable player next season, when Golden State could find themselves looking to replace Donte DiVincenzo, who holds a player option he is likely to exceed in free agency.

If the scoring and playmaking stay at this level, some turnovers are cleaned up, and consistency is found on the defensive end, the front office will be on notice.

Special Guest: Gui Santos, Wing/Forward

2022/23 G-League Stats: 12.5/9.4/3.8/1.0/0.8 per 36 mins, 61/33/58 splits, .521 3PR, .103 FTR, 13.9 REB%, 1.08 ATO, 17.1 USG

It’s time for Gui to make his debut after dropping 31 points, 8 rebounds, and 4 steals against a good Stockton Kings team to close the year.

Golden State hasn’t had much success with their draft-and-stash prospects in recent years, but Gui showcases his potential every time he steps on the floor. A slasher with playmaking chops and defensive potential written all over, he’s quietly an exciting project waiting in the wings. He’s also shown an ability to work on his flaws.

Chucking Away from Deep

Taking more than half his shots from deep is certainly a surprise considering what he was drafted for, but it makes sense in a developmental context. Gui shot 36% and 33% from deep in his last two seasons with Minas on limited attempts. Golden State probably wants to see if there’a anything there while the games are still lower stakes. This was a similar trend to how Jonathan Kuminga played with the G-League Ignite. He took far more threes than expected, trying to work on a weakness knowing he can slash and cut at will.

Gui isn’t the same caliber of athlete as Kuminga, but he’s shown an ability to contribute in a similar way offensively. The cutting and driving paved the way to his career-high game against Stockton:

If the cutting and slashing continue to translate, and a solid catch-and-shoot jumper forms, that forms the kind of big wing/small-ball 4 they want.

Another Defender Full of Potential

Gui has shown some on-ball flashes on opposing wings, with a solid combo of functional athleticism and size to be a moving wall in front of slower ballhandlers. With how he could be used by the big club, some signs of holding up on switches has to viewed as a huge plus at this stage.

Santos also has signs of a potential “event creator” off the ball. He’s shown to be a strong rebounder for his position, one who flies in off the wings to gather rebounds and hustles at every turn. Gui’s creation of steals and blocks is a pleasant surprise up to this point, which bodes well for a player who profiles in a help role often.

Considering the development Golden State has seen to date, the signs of being a Diet Kuminga in his first taste of upper tier pro basketball is a great start. Let’s hope he can continue his strong play in the G, and we’ll check in with him later on.

Looking Forward

With Steph and Wiggins out for the coming week plus of games, plus some incoming back-to-backs (including a 3 games in 4 nights stretch against Boston, Cleveland, and Brooklyn), the young players seeking rotation spots will have more opportunities to come. Players like Poole and Kuminga will see chances to solidify their roles as potentially important playoff contributors down the road.

Let’s hope that the beginning of the new year is as productive for these young Dubs as the end of the last. We’ll check in soon.

The post Two Timelines, Part III: A December to Remember appeared first on Swish Theory.

Note: Players are sorted chronologically by the time they were drafted; this is a ranking of these players in NO WAY. All stats will be points/rebs/assists/steals/blocks, splits will be 2PT/3PT/FT

It has been a weird month for the young Warriors. Some have gotten their legs with the big club or in the G-League, one has fallen out of the rotation, and one was demoted to Santa Cruz. Yet all of these moves have come while Golden State has turned a corner, winning 7 of their last 11 games.

With that recent success in mind, let’s take a closer look at which players have been contributing and who has faded into the background for now.

Jordan Poole, Guard

2022/23 Stats: 22 games (4 starts), 20/2.5/6/1.1/0.4 per 75 poss, 54/31/84 splits, 24.3 AST%, 1.57 ATO, .263 FTR, .522 3PR, -3.4 BPM

Though the statistical indicators don’t indicate any massive changes, Poole has made strides on both ends of the floor. After a first month of struggling for offensive consistency with poor on/off-ball defense, he’s starting to look more like the player we saw last season.

Finding Offensive Footing

The biggest change to me has been Poole’s willingness to flex between a playmaker and scorer. His three highest assist totals have all come in November, as he has found a way to get teammates involved when his shot isn’t falling. In fact, he shot a combined 8/32 across those three games, a strong indicator of his willingness to take a backseat and create for others instead of forcing his shot.

Not only is he a willing playmaker (career-high assists per 75), but a very good one:

With a team so reliant on his secondary playmaking, with or without Steph Curry on the floor, this past month has been a fantastic development.

What we have yet to see are the electric offensive results, still largely a result of inconsistent night-to-night performances. He shot under 40% from the floor (28% from deep) over the past month, results not at all indicative of his scoring talent or improved process.

Part of this lack of rhythm is likely due to his role. In four starts when Klay Thompson rests, Jordan averages a crisp 28 PPG on 63/36/92 shooting splits. He’s cleared 20 points in each of those contests while taking between 18 and 21 shots. He’s cleared 20 points only twice in 18 bench appearances.

Despite these struggles, I think the past month has been a big turn for his overall confidence. He’s driving with a purpose, to get to the rim or make plays for others. Per nba.com, his percentage of points in the paint has risen from 24% in October to 36% in November. He’s taking his opportunities to get out in transition to attack unsettled defenses:

In the halfcourt, he’s been patient in seeking his chances to attack mismatches and sloppy closeouts instead of forcing his drives against well-matched defenders:

Though the aforementioned 28% mark from deep is concerning, it hasn’t changed his level of confidence. Poole knows what caliber of shooter he is, and isn’t letting tough results get in the way of good process:

If Jordan can keep up this level of playmaking and rim pressure, the consistency will follow along with more made threes. I very much doubt he’ll have the same efficiency results in December if he maintains the play we saw in the past month.

Making Defensive Strides

Effort has been the key to a change in his defensive impact. Though still very much a negative defender, especially off the ball, he’s showing a lot more engagement when pressed into action.

His opponents are scoring less in the paint against him, from 30.6 to 27.5 PPG. He’s also managed to increase his defensive rebounding and block percentages from October to November. In fact, his block rate increased threefold and ended up higher than both Steph Curry and Donte DiVincenzo in that respect.

Not only do the stats show his increased hustle, but the film backs it up:

He’s even providing more credible off-ball help than we have ever seen out of him:

That’s not to say everything has been on the up and up. The rough closeouts and off-ball lapses are constants and have to be cleaned up to further tighten up a point-of-attack group that has disappointed to date.

Considering my tag for last month’s check-in was “show us something on defense”, I’d say he accomplished just that.

Keep An Eye Out For…

Again, I’ll be focusing on the micro instead of the macro for an established player like Poole. A reshuffling of the bench for added spacing has worked well for him, and the defensive improvements are certainly there. For the next month, let’s see if he can string together a few strong offensive games in a row while continuing his on-ball defensive development. Some further signs of off-ball awareness would be welcome as well.

James Wiseman, Big

2022/23 NBA Stats: 11 games (0 starts), 17.9/10/2.6/0.2/1.0 per 75 poss, 59/0/65 splits, .451 FTR, 15.9 TRB%, 2.5 BLK%, 1.38 ATO, -2.7 BPM

2022/23 G-League Stats: 5 games (5 starts), 20.8/13.3/0.8/0.6/1.7 per 36 mins, 63/29/46 splits, .200 FTR, 19.4 TRB%, 4.0 BLK%, 0.27 ATO, -8 Net Rating

After 11 games, a disastrous bench performance, and a 4-7 team record, the Warriors finally made the decision to demote James Wiseman to the Santa Cruz Warriors. And by all accounts, it’s been a good move for both the player and the team.

Though some prominent Golden State media have aggressively attributed the team’s turnaround in record to Wiseman’s demotion, there is certainly some truth to that. The trickle-down effect of his removal from the roster has been very apparent. More minutes for JaMychal Green and Jonathan Kuminga at the 5 and 4 spots, respectively, has improved both the defensive quality of the bench unit and the overall spacing afforded to their perimeter creators and cutters.

But beyond the impact on team success, what has changed for James Wiseman since his demotion?

A Low-Stakes Offensive Playground

As previously mentioned in the first timeline check-in, Wiseman’s offensive role with the big club was highly compartmentalized relative to his skill set. He was strictly used as a roller and cutter, with limited use as a floor spacer, post-up threat, or handoff hub. Now that he’s away from the pressure and expectations, he’s being allowed to play more like the rookie season version of himself.

For starters, he demands more offensive usage with the Sea Dubs. His usage rate has risen from 20% with GSW to 23% with SCW, in line with the 23.8% usage rate he posted during his rookie season. The increased offensive freedom has also been apparent on the stat sheet, as he’s taken 7 threes in 5 Sea Dubs games. He took none in 11 games with the City Dubs. Wiseman has also gotten up 2.7 more shots per 36 minutes, a positive sign of increased aggression.

This has resulted in some flashes of confidence we haven’t been able to see in some time.

From a developmental standpoint, letting him take jumpers can only be viewed as a good thing. He should be trying all kinds of shots to see what works for him, even if it’s just simple pick-and-pops.

What concerns me the most is the difference in Santa Cruz’s quality of offensive play when he’s on the floor compared to Trevion Williams, the other Sea Dub center. Trevion is a quality mover and sublime passer, one who can operate on the perimeter with his ability to take mismatches off the dribble. The ability to go 4-out or 5-out consistently improves the flow of the whole offense. Wiseman largely sticks himself in the paint looking for post-up chances, which clogs their movement as a help defender is constantly sitting in the lane.

For now, let’s hope Wiseman keeps up the aggression and can further smooth out his skills while adding a bit more perimeter potential. Reps, reps, and more reps are the key.

Still Struggling Defensively

Unfortunately, moving down a level in competition hasn’t improved Wiseman’s defensive impact.

Not only is he continuing to struggle in space, but he’s been very jumpy around the rim. He has a tendency to hunt for blocks instead of contesting shots and letting his length do the work, and it often results in biting on pump fakes:

Wiseman is allowing a 65% conversion rate on twos, not the kind of figure you want to see from such a physically imposing presence. Staying glued to the ground instead of springing to meet shots at the apex would do wonders for that number. He can afford to sacrifice a few blocked shots to get a higher rate of shot contests.

But that doesn’t mean we should ignore the flashes. This defensive possession on Kyle Lowry early in the month showed what he can be when engaged and working hard, even on the perimeter:

Signs of increased communication are there as well. As the backline defender, being able to call out coverages and actions would be a huge asset to the team that won’t show up in the box score.

There haven’t been many drastic changes on this end, but hopefully, over the next month, we can see some further development.

Keep An Eye On…

Last month, I said I wanted to see improvements in catching the ball and playing a more flexible form of drop coverage. Neither of those boxes has been checked, and only more questions are being asked.

I’d still like to see developments in both of those areas as Wiseman gets acclimated to the Santa Cruz environment over the coming months. In addition, continuing his offensive aggression is important. He needs to take advantage of his time in the G by trying as many things as he can, seeing what works, and hopefully applying those reps to his future call-up. It also wouldn’t hurt to knock down that 65% opponent FG% in the paint.

Jonathan Kuminga, Forward

2022/23 Stats: 18 games (2 starts), 13.1/6.6/1.9/0.8/1.3 per 75 poss, 54/25/75 splits, .391 3PR, .261 FTR, 10.4 TRB%, 3.2 BLK%, 0.63 ATO, -5.9 BPM

Last month, I compared Kuminga to the Cousin Greg of this Warriors’ prospect group: on the outside looking in, yearning for an opportunity. Now he’s gone full Tom Wambsgans, unexpectedly jumping to the forefront when you least expect it. It has truly been a banner month for Joku’s development.

In games where the team wasn’t resting their starters, Kuminga only managed to clear 10 minutes played in four of thirteen games before rotational changes arrived. Yet over the past four, he’s cleared that threshold every game, showing the increased confidence Steve Kerr has placed in him. So what has Kuminga done to earn his newfound spot?

Carving an Offensive Niche

Cutting, cutting, and more cutting. This is the primary reason for Kuminga’s newfound offensive success.

Though he’s only credited with 1.1 PPP on cuts (per Synergy), the process has been fantastic to watch. Largely stationed in the corners during halfcourt sets, he takes his chances well to cut off drives or short rolls to capitalize on a distracted defense. This has been a boon for his overall rim finishing numbers, sitting at 71% at the moment.

He’s also showing some increased confidence in his jumper. 4/12 on corner threes isn’t setting the world on fire, but there are some signs that he could show enough to force closeouts. That’s where his real value comes into play.

Kuminga has a unique ability to never truly be properly matched up when driving. He’s too big for guards to handle, too quick for bigs, and too strong for the average wing. We’ve seen that theoretical ability materialize itself in a big way over the past month:

Not only is he driving, but doing so with purpose. He’s creating scoring chances for himself or kicking to put the defense in rotation, cutting down on his habit of driving without a quick decision in mind. Considering the Warriors only have two true defense collapsers (definitely a word, don’t Google it) on the roster, adding a third threat to the mix could add a new element of danger to what is already a very good offense.

This isn’t to say everything has been perfect. He still turns the ball over at a high rate, struggling with his handle and on the catch. But he’s shown all the necessary signs this coaching staff has wanted to see, resulting in his newfound trust. He’ll be allowed to play through his mistakes to show the exponential growth we saw last year when he gets consistent playing time. Who knows how productive he might be on that end by the time January rolls around?

Playing With Defensive Purpose

What has really jumped off the page is Kuminga’s commitment to being an impact rotation defender. Over his last five, Kuminga has racked up 1.4 blocks per game in only 22 minutes per. Not only are the statistical results showing, but the tape shows a different level of activity and timing than we’re used to:

Since Wiseman’s demotion, Kuminga has spent more time at his natural power forward position. It’s been a boon for him offensively, but places more defensive responsibility on his shoulders when thrown into a help role. He’s rising to meet that challenge in a big way.

This increased time at the 4 hasn’t diminished his impact as a wing/point-of-attack defender. In his last game against Dallas, Kuminga was the only Warriors defender who could really bother Luka Dončić. That’s really saying a lot considering Andrew Wiggins‘ All-Defense-caliber presence. His physicality and mobility have always been present, but he’s starting to catch up from a technical perspective:

This kind of versatile defensive impact both on and off the ball is a huge addition to a team starving for defensive playmakers. If he can sustain this level of play on that end, it would change a lot of things for this Golden State team in the short term, let alone what it means for Kuminga’s future potential.

Keep An Eye Out For…

Well, time to toot my own horn a little bit. Here’s what I listed as potential points of growth for Kuminga in the month of November:

Cutting? Check. Impact rotations? Check. Did that lead to a consistent role? You bet.

Now the challenge is on Kuminga to build upon his success. I’d love to see him take some steps as an on-ball scorer, both from the perimeter and on his drives. On the defensive end, we’ve seen Kuminga be an impact rebounder over the past couple of games. If he can continue to work hard boxing out and using his silly second jumps to clean up defensive possessions, he can assist a squad currently ranked 22nd in total rebounding. I’ll be watching very closely to see what he does in December.

Let’s hope my predictive powers for Kuminga can keep up as well.

Moses Moody, Wing

2022/23 Stats: 18 games (1 start), 11.7/4.4/1.4/0.9/0.7 per 75 poss, 52/33/82 splits, .648 3PR, .310 FTR, 3.9 stock %, 0.53 ATO, -4.6 BPM

Speaking of predictive powers, I certainly did not hit the mark when it came to Moody over the past month.

While Kuminga has seen his quality in play and overall playing time increase, Moody has moved in the opposite direction. Over Golden State’s first 10 games, Moody failed to clear 10 minutes played only once. Since then, he’s only cleared that threshold twice: once in a blowout against the Spurs (with Klay Thompson resting), and again when the starting unit rested against the Pelicans. He’s also racked up four DNPs in that same timeframe, clearly falling out of coach Kerr’s favor.

With the lack of a recent sample size, I don’t have much to add to Moody’s developmental process beyond my recent piece written on his specific struggles, which you can read here.

With the problems clearly delineated and the new rotation working, the impetus will be on Moody to show positive flashes whenever he can get himself off the pine. Even in blowout scenarios with limited minutes, Moses has to show growth. Luckily, there have been signs recently:

Hopefully, over the next month, we’ll get some further chances to see Moody get significant playing time. With four back-to-backs on the docket for the next month, including two on the road, he will certainly have some opportunities. That should give us more data to work off, but for now, we stay in wait-and-see mode.

Patrick Baldwin Jr., Forward

2022/23 NBA Stats: 4 games played (0 starts), 24 total minutes played

2022/23 G-League Stats: 5 games played, 12.6/8.2/2.4/1.4/0.3 per 75 poss, 63/29/100 splits, .659 3PR, .021 FTR, 0.69 ATO

Now we move into the purely developmental group. Though PBJ has been able to grab more garbage time minutes with the big club, the real work is going on down in Santa Cruz.

Letting It Fly

Baldwin Jr. is letting 7.2 threes loose per 75 possessions, and though the 29% mark is less than ideal, he’s too strong of a shooter to not increase that number. Shooting has been his calling card since his days as a top-ranked high school recruit, and it’s great to see his confidence hasn’t waned over a difficult past year. His crazy high release and solid movement skills project as a great off-ball fit in their offensive system, which translates with the big club as well:

As long as he’s with the Sea Dubs, or when he gets his garbage time minutes, he should be letting that thing sing. As he gets his legs under him after a mostly lost one-and-done college season, getting up as many shots as possible.

Getting the rest of his offense to flow from that shooting gravity is important to round out his game. Finishing 63% of his twos to begin the year with Santa Cruz is a great start, and he has showed some signs of a potentially good closeout attacker:

Though nobody would confuse him for a primary playmaker, there have been some positive signs. Our man on the ground in Santa Cruz, @GSWReddit, points out that PBJ has managed to play within the flow of the offense. He keeps the wheels greased, but still finds opportunities to make plays for others in a connective role. There have even been some solid pick-and-roll reps:

Baldwin Jr. is building the profile of a quality connective, off-ball wing in a motion offense. As his health and confidence continue to build, expect results to match his process in the coming months as the reps start to pile up.

Is There Defense Here?

As a player likely profiled in a helping role, hidden off the ball, PBJ’s job is to secure the glass and get active with his rotations. As evidenced by his 7.2 rebounds per 75, he’s able to use that 6’10” frame to his advantage and be a quality glass cleaner. He doesn’t quite have the physicality to be an impact boxout man, but long reach can make up for that in many instances.

A little more stock (steal + block) production would be nice to see, but as his mobility increases with time I expect those to follow. He still struggles in space on switches against shiftier wings or guards. But he wasn’t a player taken for his defense, so he just has to focus on staying within himself, working on positioning, and continuing to pitch in on the glass.

Keep An Eye Out For…

It’s pretty clear that barring catastrophic injury issues, the majority of Baldwin Jr.’s playing time will be coming with the Sea Dubs this season. Given the construction of the current big club, it’s not an indictment of Baldwin Jr. that he’s not playing with them. If anything, it points to their confidence in Santa Cruz coach Seth Cooper and his coaching staff (including Steve Kerr’s son, whose name I am hesitant to type) putting him in a position to step into a role when called upon.

I’d love to see more defensive flashes on his part, using those arms to disrupt passing lanes and affecting shots. He should continue to let it fly offensively, and the shots will begin to fall. Ideally, some increased playmaking responsibility starts to come his way, and he finds a way to get to the line more than the one free throw he generated in his first five G-League games.

Ryan Rollins, Guard

2022/23 NBA Stats: 7 games played (0 starts), 43 total minutes played

2022/23 G-League Stats: 6 games played, 24.8/3.5/3.5/0.7/0.5 per 75 poss, 55/31/59 splits, 18.8 AST%, 0.73 ATO, .385 3PR, .187 FTR, -10.7 Net Rating

Another developmental future Warrior, Rollins has been a ball of pure energy when playing with the Sea Dubs. He might be a contender within the organization to challenge Jordan Poole for the “eating ridiculous shit while going at full speed” crown. His offensive aggression and overall energy would be welcome additions to the big club roster if he’s able to clean up some facets of his game, but for now, he’s biding his time.

A Constant Downhill Threat

Through his first six games, 43% of Rollins’ offense off of field goals has come in the paint. He’s a constant force attacking the rim, largely looking for his own shot but capable of making plays for others as well:

He’s been the dominant scorer on this Sea Dubs team when on the floor, not afraid to get into the teeth of the defense and use physicality and a solid finishing package to generate offense. His willingness to take a hit to generate offense shows a player without fear:

He’s shown some pretty solid handle and craft to boot, and though it can be a bit chaotic (4.9 turnovers per 75), it’s perfectly fine considering where he is in his developmental cycle. The more he works on his playmaking reps, the further he can clean up those turnover numbers while the assists continue to rise. Rollins has also shown a willingness to push the pace in transition, using his burst and fast-paced handling to take advantage of unsettled defenses:

Though his role as a primary scorer with Santa Cruz has diminished his chances to show connective passing, he’s made some reads with the big club that stood out to me:

This is the kind of cut with the intent to kick out you would normally see from Draymond Green or Kevon Looney, but in this case, it’s Rollins making the read. Though he bobbles on the catch, you can see the intent from the young rookie.

Defense: Some Assembly Required

As much as the offensive flashes have been incredibly encouraging from RR, the defense has not been inspiring. But why take it from me when you can take it from the Michelangelo of Warriors film work, Joe Viray?

Much like Patrick Baldwin Jr., Rollins wasn’t drafted for his defensive prowess, but this rate of dying on screens and allowing dribble penetration is unsustainable. No amount of offensive production will get the Warriors’ coaching staff to overlook this.

If he’s able to clean some of this up to become at least a competent defender, it bodes very well for his future with the big club. His ridiculous +7 wingspan and athleticism point to potential defensive impact down the road and he could very well be an impact defender with repetition and hard work. Until then, he’s destined to ride the pine.

Keep An Eye Out For…

Any signs of defensive life.

With the offensive trajectory Rollins is on and his priors with Toledo, we know he can score the ball. Sure, it would be great to see more perimeter shots fall and fewer turnovers, but he can certainly make an impact on that end. The real question is, can that outweigh his subpar defensive game?

Over the next month when I check in on the Sea Dubs, I’ll be watching his perimeter defense like a hawk. General awareness, effort, or some quality lock-and-trails would be fantastic to see. Hopefully, if he can clean up the technical aspects, his physical tools will lead to a positive overall impact down the line.

Looking Forward

As previously mentioned, the Warriors have four upcoming back-to-backs this month. This is a great opportunity to see some of the end-of-the-rotation pieces in action. Fingers crossed that the development from Jordan Poole and Jonathan Kuminga stays on an upward trajectory because this could be an even more ringing endorsement of the young core a month from now. Until then, keep your eyes peeled.

The post Two Timelines, Part II: Kuminga Up, Wiseman & Moody Down appeared first on Swish Theory.

Note: Players are sorted chronologically by the time they were drafted; this is a ranking of these players in NO WAY. All stats will be points/rebs/assists/steals/blocks, splits will be 2PT/3PT/FT

Two timelines. It’s a topic you see often across Warriors media, especially on Twitter. After a championship run that carried four rookie-scale contracts on the roster, Golden State has upped the stakes, with almost half of their roster still on their first deal.

We know it can work. The veterans know what they are. But who amongst the young guys can step up? Who will get chances, and who will capitalize on those chances? For those that have already taken on bigger roles, how can they further build on that success?

Without any further pontificating, let’s check in on all the Warriors’ rookie-scale players, starting with their future star.

Jordan Poole, Guard

2022/23 Stats: 8 games (1 start), 19.8/2/6/1.7/0.2 per 75 poss, 58/32/80 splits, 25.3% AST, 1.74 ATO, .288 FTR, .538 3PR, -2.8 BPM

It’s no secret how much faith the Warriors have placed in Jordan Poole. His newly-minted extension confirms he is the future playmaking force for this team, a lead guard to take up the mantle once Steph can no longer wear the crown. Preparing for that role also fills the immediate need for a playmaker/initiator for the bench unit, but results have been mixed to begin the season.

Poole had exposure to that role last year down the stretch after Klay Thompson’s return, especially in the playoffs. He maintained his dynamism with those bench units. That lack of drop-off is both a testament to his skill and to how good that Warriors bench was this past season, especially from a spacing perspective.

That combined shooting from the forward group last year (36.7% combined on 5.5 attempts per game between Nemanja Bjelica and Otto Porter Jr.) helped clear the paint for the twitchy young guard to get downhill. So far, only JaMychal Green has provided any real spacing. Jonathan Kuminga has only attempted 4 threes in 8 games, and James Wiseman hasn’t taken any. Donte DiVincenzo and Moses Moody have done little to alleviate these concerns.

Take a look at this play here, and note the positioning of Denver’s defenders on the initial drive. No respect is given to the shooters (and why should it be?), creating an overly saturated paint for Poole to try and navigate. Yet he still finds a window, because he’s that good.

The issue of a lack of shooters compounds because Poole is the best off-ball shooter AND on-ball playmaker this bench has, and for obvious reasons cannot do both at once. Though things will surely even out as the season progresses, Poole has been taking an atypical amount of midrange shots relative to his past three seasons, as a result of both the bench’s need for self-creation and inability to get clean paint touches.

It’s not necessarily a bad thing because he is such a prolific shotmaker, but Golden State should be working to find a healthier balance in his shot diet.

You can see what the balance should be like when he gets minutes with the starters, and he’s able to flex on/off the ball from possession to possession instead of being relied upon for constant playmaking.

Defense: Show Us Something

There’s no sugarcoating this: Poole has been bad defensively. He can keep attention when on the ball and has some athletic tools, but is one of the worst off-ball defenders around the perimeter. He’s constantly in the middle of blown switches and communication while losing his man with all too much frequency. It simply has to be better for the bench defense to improve.

The physical tools are there. Now the mental side has to catch up.

Keep An Eye Out For…

Compared to the rest of the players on this list going forwards, I’ll be focusing on the micro instead of the macro. There’s no questioning his future stardom, but there is a question about the degree. For the next month, keep an eye on the bench spacing around Jordan, and how defenses situate themselves on his drives. On the defensive end, watch his communication on switches and off-ball activity, as both must improve sooner than later.

James Wiseman, Big

2022/23 Stats: 8 games (0 starts), 20.6/9.7/1.9/0/1.3 per 75 poss, 61/0/63 splits, 0.432 FTR, 15.3% TRB, 1.0 ATO, -3.9 BPM

Perhaps no player on this list has had more to glean from in these first few games. It’s apparent on almost every possession that Wiseman is looking healthy and spry. With every passing game, it becomes clearer that injuries severely hampered his on-court production when he was in the lineup.

What is also apparent is the clear compartmentalization of his offensive role. When playing his rookie season, we saw few (if any) games where the Warriors had a complete and deep roster capable of winning. A lack of internal competition and win/loss expectations gave him free rein to try things out. This season’s squad is trying to defend a title and can’t afford to give him that liberty anymore.

Wiseman is living around the rim offensively, and the results have been fun. His roll-man frequency has doubled from his rookie season, and though more numbers will need to be collected before it’s a definite trend, it’s clear that playing with more adept playmakers has been a major boon for his offensive efficiency.

There are also some signs of trusting him as a designed playmaker. Though results have been mixed so far, it is a hint towards the plan this team has for James.

It’s also been nice to see aggressive and technically sound screening from Wiseman due to his increased confidence and health. If that persists, he could find himself in the middle of plenty of DHO looks and “get” actions to make use of the size and positioning. However, there are still plenty of things to clean up before he can become a reliable DHO hub, and that will require lots of reps, something the Warriors are not able to consistently give him.

Ultimately, Wiseman’s offensive improvement has flown under the radar so far this year, as the Warriors have made good use of his size and rolling ability. But that’s not the end of the floor that is cause for concern.

Defense Remains Strict

How the Warriors view Wiseman as a defender hasn’t changed much. Everything they do is done to keep Wiseman away from the perimeter where he’s an easy target. You can see how deliberately Wiseman runs back in the paint to avoid getting cross-matched and stuck outside on almost every transition possession. Though he has been good at keeping himself out of trouble in transition, it’s the half-court struggles that have become a major concern.

Being stuck in a deep drop is feasible with solid point-of-attack defense and help from the forwards, and it’s certainly not James’ fault that those two areas have been lacking. In fact, both Wiseman and JaMychal Green are in the bottom six in terms of two-point percentage allowed among bigs.

Ideally, your drop big is allowing floaters instead of layups. Defenses will take that shot every time instead of a pull-up three. Yet Wiseman has allowed over 1.3 PPP on floaters this year, in part because the depth of the drop makes those shots too easy. When those shots go up, Wise usually has two feet planted in the restricted area and doesn’t have the short-coil explosion to contest a shot 5-6 feet from the rim. If he could play a tad higher to push those shots to 8-9 feet, while keeping track of the rim behind him, that would go a long way toward improving his defensive efficacy.

But even when planted at the rim, he hasn’t been a strong enough deterrent. He has a hard time choosing when to go vertical and when to really contest, and opponents are simply not intimidated by him. The issue was most apparent against Detroit this past Sunday when 6’8″ Isaiah Stewart took the 7’2″ Wiseman to work in the post in an incredibly disrespectful way:

If he can’t switch out to the perimeter, and he can’t really affect shots without fouling (6.2 fouls per 75), the other bench Warriors are going to be picking up the slack all season. It’ll be a major point for other teams to attack come playoff time, which would almost entirely take him off the floor. Unless measurable strides are made, the defensive concerns alone will write him out of the playoff rotation. Not an ideal scenario for a 2nd overall pick in his third year.

Keep An Eye Out For…

The main thing I’ll be focusing on is the defensive end. How deep is his drop? Can he deter more rim attempts and push those floaters back another foot or two? Can he rotate without fouling? There are really too many questions to be asked at the moment. I’d consider it progress if we see more clarity in either direction: if he can improve on those responsibilities, great; if not, what do we do now?

Unless he goes back to taking jumpers, the offense should be relatively consistent going forwards. After a strong start catching the ball, there have been a few fumbles over the past week. Let’s see how Wiseman does on the catch over the next month, which is where 99% of his offense should be derived from.

Jonathan Kuminga, Forward

2022/23 Stats: 6 games (0 starts), 8.6/6/1.5/0.5/0.5 per 75 poss, 46/0/100 splits, .267 3PR, .400 FTR, 9.4 reb%, 0.42 ATO, -12.0 BPM

If the Warriors’ core youths were the Roys from HBO’s Succession, Kuminga is the Cousin Greg of the group at the moment. He’s on the outside looking in, trying to get an opportunity while working on his game. But instead of Comfry he’s after, it’s playing time.

Despite the exit of Otto Porter Jr., Kuminga’s minutes have dropped from last season. He started off as the backup 3 before a lack of spacing and defensive issues forced him to the end of the rotation, while Moses Moody has gradually taken those minutes. A lack of half-court efficiency has really handicapped his playing time, as the offense hasn’t outweighed the inconsistent defense. However, he is still a dynamo in transition.

The half-court struggles are tough to ignore. JoKu has yet to find any sort of consistency as a spacer, roller, or cutter. Without a reliable trick in his bag, defenses can largely ignore him when he’s not playing in the dunker spot, which is usually occupied by Wiseman. It’s fair to wonder if some of those problems could be alleviated by him playing the 4 or 5 more consistently, but he needs to show more capability as a screener and roller first.

However, I have been encouraged by his improvements in playmaking and court awareness. He’s made some nice reads on the fly instead of from rigid structure, a good sign that the sophomore is starting to develop a feel for the game and chemistry with his teammates.

How Does the Defense Look?

Much like his young compatriots, Kuminga has struggled with off-ball communication and attentiveness, another key reason for his dip in playing time. But when engaged (especially on the ball), he can really produce results.

He’s got a package of length, athleticism, and reaction speed that makes him tough to shake. We all know how twitchy Kelly Oubre Jr. is, and Kuminga stays with him pace-for-pace on the above possession.

The overall improvement in body control has been my favorite development thus far. He’s not playing like a train going off the tracks as much, staying within himself while flying around at full speed:

It has also been a boon on the offensive end of the floor. Shots like the one you see below were lucky to catch rim last year, let alone tickle the twine:

Kuminga still has plenty of work to do on both ends of the floor in the macro, but there has been positive development from a microskills standpoint. It would be nice to see him improving in leaps and bounds like he did last year, but it’s unfair overall to say his play has regressed this year. The pressure on him defensively has been ramped up, and he hasn’t quite hit the mark.

Keep An Eye Out For…

Trust from the coaching staff. Not much more to it.

If he’s not playing consistently, there isn’t much to see. But when he’s out there, watch how he operates offensively in the half court. If he can be an active cutter and used more often as a roller, that would go a long way towards boosting those minutes. On the defensive end, track how he works off the ball. Does he keep his eyes and feet moving? Can he make impact rotations?

If some of these questions can be answered, he might find himself with a more consistent role before the month is out.

Moses Moody, Wing

2022/23 Stats: 8 games (0 starts), 13.5/4.5/1/1/1.2 per 75 poss, 46/37/75 splits, .698 3PR, .186 FTR, 4.7 stock%, 0.36 ATO, -4.6 BPM

Of all young Warriors not named Jordan Poole, Moses Moody is unquestionably the most ready-made NBA player of the bunch. And Steve Kerr is starting to take note.

As previously mentioned, Jonathan Kuminga’s role as the backup 3 has slowly been ceded to Moses. His consistency as a defender and floor spacer brings immense value to a second unit struggling for both. Most importantly, he stays ready. You know when he steps on the floor he will be engaged, communicative, and giving maximum effort.

To understand how he brings value on the defensive end of the floor, watch this thread on his game against the Phoenix Suns:

On the ball, he is dynamic. When tasked with paint responsibilities as a sinker or filler, he can make life tough inside for bigs trying to mismatch or shooters trying to relocate for open shots. That kind of versatility on the floor plugs a lot of holes and is a large reason why his playing time is on the rise. He’s prone to mistakes like any other rookie-scale wing, but they are fewer and further between than you would expect for a 20-year-old.

And, as always, the footwork shines on both ends. No surprise at all for a Montverde product.

Finding an Offensive Niche

On the offensive end of the floor, everything trickles down from the perimeter shot. And unlike Reaganomics, it actually works. His .66 3PR places him pretty squarely in the shoot-first wing category, but he’s starting to expand his diet of perimeter shots. He’s taking deeper attempts off the catch, further stretching his range and forcing tougher closeouts.

Footwork and balance skills are also coming into play as a movement shooter. This really opens up the amount of motion off-ball actions he can be involved in. You can picture him flying off pindowns and using that high release point to get all kinds of looks off, regardless of how contested.

It’s still early to be thinking about the end of the season, but the line of demarcation on the roster has been pretty clear: when an 8-man playoff rotation forms, it’ll be the starters plus Poole, DiVincenzo, and JaMychal Green. If I had to bet on a player outside that 8 to make it a 9 (or just outright take a spot), it would be Moses. He’s ready for whatever Golden State throws his way.

Keep An Eye Out For…

Moody’s playing time when Donte DiVincenzo returns to the lineup will be interesting to monitor. Does he start eating into some of those minutes as the second guard off the bench, or remain an outright 3 when the bench unit plays? Could he potentially become first in line for starts when Klay has to be rested in order to keep Poole’s offense with the bench?

In terms of on-court things to watch, how Moody attacks closeouts could be a short-term area of improvement. He’s strong and has a solid handle on his drives, but has yet to find a true rhythm as a finisher. He does have some finishing tricks in his bad, but it has to be something beyond wrong-footed/handed finishes to deter shot contests. Going up with the body and finishing strong is something he is very capable of. If he starts to mix in some quality kickouts and pocket passes against a tilted defense, he could do more than just keep the wheels greased on the offensive end.

Patrick Baldwin Jr., Forward

2022/23 Stats: 1 game (0 starts), 1 total minute played

Well, there’s only so much you can say about a guy who has only played one minute.

The positive showings in the preseason have not carried over into regular-season minutes, but that’s not really a surprise to anyone. This team has a lot of mouths to feed, and someone had to get the squeeze. Without knowing how PBJ is looking in practice, it’s impossible to speculate what he can do to get himself on the floor beyond waiting patiently for a chance.

The good thing is he’s not unavailable because of his health. After a rocky college season hampered by lower-body injuries, Baldwin Jr. looked fluid on both ends of the floor during the preseason. He looked ready-made as an off-ball relocator and had no qualms with pulling the trigger. At nearly 6’10”, almost every look is clean for him.

But that’s really all we have right now: preseason flashes. Until he gets a larger body of work under his belt, his potential role is theoretical in nature.

Keep An Eye Out For…

Minutes. Anything really.

If PBJ checks into a non-blowout without any significant injuries factoring in, it’s a strong indication that Pat is putting in the work behind the scenes. What’s more likely is he continues to mix in during out-of-reach games or on nights where the forward depth has been depleted.

If/when he does get some run, I’ll mostly be monitoring how he moves. If he looks healthy, confidence will follow. A confident shooter at that size could do a lot for this team. And if he can find a way to not get played off the floor defensively, who knows? Golden State clearly went into this year viewing anything they get from Baldwin Jr. as a bonus, and that stays the case for now.

Ryan Rollins, Guard

2022/23 Stats: 3 games (0 starts), 4 total minutes played

At last, we come to the other forgotten rookie in the rotation. The only true backup point guard on the roster, Rollins finds himself buried behind a cadre of strong guard options who can play the 1 in a pinch. Thus you have the 4 minutes played after 7 games.

Much like his rookie counterpart, PBJ, Rollins was overcoming foot/ankle troubles coming into camp and missed Summer League as a result. But when he got himself on the floor in preseason, there was a lot to like:

He’s shown flashes of on-ball dynamism, capable of a wide array of shots from the perimeter when he gets it going. Rollins took a few spot-up looks off the ball as well, as the Warriors are likely trying to get him to flex on/off ball to better fit the offense.

It remains to be seen if any of this can translate in the short term. He’ll be waiting in the wings to see what opportunities arise, but the Warriors certainly did not construct this roster expecting to lean on him in any way.

Keep An Eye Out For…

Minutes. Same as Patrick Baldwin Jr.

Steph Curry will miss games. That much is a given. It’s likely at some point over the next month he will be rested, and that should open up a chance for Rollins to run the bench for a dozen or so minutes on those nights.

If he does, I’ll be watching how much time he spends on the ball vs. off it. He can create for himself and others when he has the rock, but without it will define what kind of role he can carve out. The defensive activity is worth checking in on as well. Whether or not he can make an impact at the point-of-attack could open up more potential minutes behind Poole and Donte.

But ultimately, anything we see from him is a bonus. If Rollins is suddenly thrust into major playing time, it likely spells bad news for the Dubs in more ways than one.

Looking Forward

The Dubs have 15 games on deck for November, including three back-to-backs. This could be a prime month for the young guys to get a little looser as they see more minutes, with veteran rest all but guaranteed for some of those games.

I’ll be keeping frequent tabs on all of these guys to monitor their progress before we check back in at the beginning of December. Until then, enjoy what you see out there. These are exciting and unprecedented times for Golden State.

The post Two Timelines: Checking In On the Golden State Warriors’ Talent appeared first on Swish Theory.