The criteria to make the list is that you must have played at least in two rounds, 200 minutes, and averaged at least 20 points per 75 possessions.

1. Donovan Mitchell – CLE – 29.1 Points/75 – 110 TS+ relative to series

Insane playoff scoring runs are nothing new to Donovan Mitchell. His 2021 run with the Jazz is one of the best in the database. During this run, he provided massive scoring volume versus elite defenses in the Magic and Celtics. He was second in points/75 only trailing Jalen Brunson. The lack of scoring punch on the Cavs’ roster made Mitchell’s run even more impressive. Evan Mobley was the only other Cavalier that scored on positive efficiency relative to the series played in. 

2. Nikola Jokic – DEN – 27.2 Points/75 – 112 TS+ relative to series

Jokic was the most efficient primary option in the playoffs after adjusting for scoring environment. He was an otherworldly 19% more efficient than the average scorer in the Nuggets/Lakers series, and 9% more efficient than the average scorer in the Nuggets/Timberwolves series. It’s interesting how he got to those numbers: he was ice cold from three (26%) but scorching from two (62%) and the free throw line (90%). 

3. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander – OKC – 28.4 Points/75 – 106 TS+ relative to series

SGA has shown to be an elite scorer over the last two regular seasons. This year he got a chance to prove it in the postseason and he did not disappoint. His game-to-game scoring production was remarkable. He scored at least 24 points in each of his playoff games. Shai does the bulk of his damage inside the three point line but when he did shoot from distance he connected on 43% of his attempts (3.7 attempts per game). He went bar for bar with Luka from a scoring perspective in the second round, posting almost the exact same score in the model.

4. Jalen Brunson – NYK – 31.4 Points/75 – 93 TS+ relative to series

Brunson is the only player on this list with a negative scoring efficiency relative to the average scorer in the series he played in. A reasonable follow up question to this fact would be why is he on the list. 2001 Allen Iverson is a good comparison; he brought massive scoring volume to the table on bad efficiency but still obviously created a ton of value for his team. With Julius Randle hurt, Brunson was the Knicks’ only offensive initiator. Because of that he was forced into a position where the team needed him to score on volume because of the roster’s lack of shot creation. Brunson rose to the challenge, posting the highest points/75 of any player in the postseason.

5. Anthony Edwards – MIN – 26.0 Points/75 – 103 TS+ relative to series

Ant’s playoff run took over the basketball world for a few weeks. He started off scorching hot, posting the third best Adjusted Playoff Scoring performance of the first round (only trailing Embiid and Dame) and then a strong second round versus the Nuggets. Unfortunately, he went ice cold in the Conference Finals. But the beauty of this model is it helps us combine a rolling boil and an ice cube. And in this case, it resulted in a bubbling simmer good for the fifth best scorer in the postseason.

6. Luka Doncic –  DAL – 27.1 Points/75 – 100 TS+ relative to series

Luka was hampered by injuries throughout this run and was still able to lead his team to the finals. He started off with a rough series versus the Clippers efficiency-wise. In the second round, his efficiency was back to being positive versus the Thunder but his scoring volume was uncharacteristically low (22.5 Pts/75). In the Conference Finals, he had it all working against the Timberwolves’ top defense, recording the best performance in that round per the model. His first Finals appearance bore results somewhere in the middle of his previous rounds (29 Pts/75 in 97 TS+ relative to series)   

7. Jaylen Brown – BOS – 24.7 Points/75 – 104 TS+ relative to series

Jaylen had a remarkably consistent playoff run before slowing down in the Finals. He scored at least 26 points/75 in each of his first three series on positive efficiency relative to that series. He was seventh in points/75 in the playoffs, finishing just ahead of his teammate Jayson Tatum thanks in part to shooting an unreal 81% at the rim on his way to his first championship.

8. Myles Turner – IND – 20.0 Points/75 – 109 TS+ relative to series

Myles Turner’s ability to stretch defenses with his shooting has always been an enticing skill. This postseason we got to see it fully unleashed: he took 5.1 three pointers a game at 45.3%. That type of effectiveness makes the 5-out alignment extremely difficult to deal with. Turner’s efficiency got stronger as the playoffs went on (first round 105 TS+rs, second round 110 TS+rs, third round 113 TS+rs). His ability to synergize with Haliburton as a pick and pop threat makes him a great scoring complement.

9. Karl-Anthony Towns – MIN – 22.3 Points/75 – 103 TS+ relative to series

KAT’s had a similar playoff run to Anthony Edwards in that he started out sensational in the first round, then had a good second round, and finally an abysmal third round. But again this app cuts through the narratives and shows he was the ninth best scorer in the 2024 postseason. Towns has always been a fantastic scorer and functions well as the secondary star.  

10. Tyrese Haliburton – IND – 20.3 Points/75 – 106 TS+ relative to series

Haliburton had a very solid scoring postseason. He struggled in the first round versus the Bucks before going nuclear in the second round against the Knicks (24.2 Pts/75 and a 115 TS+rs). Haliburton is known more for his passing than scoring but separating out the scoring is important for understanding the value of each part of his game.   

Just missed the cut: Pascal Siakam, Kyrie Irving

Link to the free app: https://filippos-pol.shinyapps.io/modern-playoff-scoring-runs

Thanks To Filippos Polyzos for coding the project. Follow him on Twitter @filippos_pol

Follow me @taylormetrics

The post Top Ten Playoff Scorers of 2024 appeared first on Swish Theory.

While Indiana’s current successes are not wholly tied to Bruce Brown, he exemplifies ‘why’ they have been successful. Anchored by a multitude of intelligent mistake-free ball handlers, Rick Carlisle has found the formula that has led Indiana to the first-ranked offense in both offensive efficiency and half-court offensive efficiency. This offense resembles a metaphorical ‘greatest hits’ of NBA modern offense, all of which will be explored here. Carlisle has long been an offensive mastermind, and this scheme shows he has kept evolving as the game does.

There is no correct way to run an offense. It depends on your personnel: good and bad plays come down to execution and personal preference. Indiana, however are running the majority of the core concepts you see in modern offense (Zoom, Pistol, Delay, Double Stagger screens, Empty Side Actions). While running such a diverse offense, they are still incredible at ball security, with only two teams turning it over fewer times per game. This points to the fact Indiana has managed to have four high-feel ball handlers on the same roster anchoring their scheme (Haliburton, Brown, Nembhard, McConnell).

Indiana’s offense somewhat reminds me of a quote from the late Johan Cruyff:

“Playing football is very simple, but playing simple football is the hardest thing there is.

A lot of what Indiana does schematically is replicable to an extent. But a big reason they are able to play as they do is because they have stacked together some of the better passers and processors in the NBA. Many believe offense is simple and just about quick decisions and letting hoopers get to their spots. What is often undersold is how difficult this can actually be to achieve. Replicating any perceived ‘simplicity’ of the Indiana Pacers motion offense undersells the execution of their modern concepts, and how rare it is to have stockpiled such a variety of smart ball handlers on one roster. Indiana runs their scheme so well that you are often lulled into thinking it is simple. The variety of cuts and freelance screens are created by their ball handlers and their offensive concepts. It’s a sort of Chicken or the Egg Phenomena in which I lean towards one side.

Early Offense and Spain PNRs

Indiana pushes the pace. Per NBA.com, they take the most shots in the ‘very early’ and ‘early’ ranges of the shot clock. This varies between 22 seconds and 15 seconds. They push for quick hitters out of ‘wide’ ball screens such as below.

This isn’t a novel concept, every team runs it. But pushing these early and often sets up quick advantages that have the defense in rotation early. Indiana are a nightmare to play against because of their early decisiveness.

This is where things get interesting. More often than not, NBA teams will take away this wide ball screen. Giving up early threes and allowing early passes is not something NBA teams want to do. Indiana will often counter this with ‘Wide Reject Spain’. This is one of the more common counters in the NBA but no one runs it better than Indiana.

The Pacers push the ball up and Jalen Smith makes a quick glance behind him to set up the wide ball screen. With Danuel House already top-locking Buddy Hield, the Pacers quickly flow into Wide Reject Spain with Buddy Hield setting a back screen on Jalen Smith’s man. Hield is particularly good on this set, and I’d bet very few guards in the NBA set more screens than him. The result is an easy look for TJ McConnell.

These sets become even more effective when Tyrese Haliburton is the ball handler. Haliburton’s blend of shotmaking and passing isn’t new information to anyone reading this. He’s shooting 54 percent on pull-up threes this season. Even if that regresses to last years measly 41 percent (sarcasm), he’s still one of the very best shotmakers in the game. Here he rejects the ‘reject Spain’ action, taking a filthy step back jumper to the defenders left. I’m unsure what you do with this.

A cruel wrinkle Indiana has started to show is using Haliburton as the back screener. You may be confused by the concept of taking Haliburton off the ball, but it genuinely tortures defenses. This is where Indiana’s pursuit of multiple ball handlers has really shown up, I don’t believe they’d have run this wrinkle last year. Below is how it looks.

Andrew Nembhard initiates the pick-and-roll. With Haliburton being the back screener, De’Anthony Melton has no intent of leaving him. Embiid has to go with the hyper-athletic Isaiah Jackson and the result is Nembhard being able to walk into a good look as there is absolutely no at the level help. Though Nembhard misses, this is still superb process as he’s an elite finisher at the rim and from short-mid-range areas (94th and 79th percentiles respectively).

In their recent demolition job of Philadelphia’s elite defense, they went to this set at the end of the game. This time without the Wide Reject window dressing.

Bruce Brown is the initiator this time. Haliburton sets the back screen and it causes the exact same problem as the previous play. The guard has to stay attached to Haliburton. On this occasion, Embiid ignores the roller and tries to close the gap. It doesn’t matter because Bruce Brown scores off the glass with a superb finish. Brown’s finishing numbers are down overall but he’s still an effective finisher. His addition has opened up more wrinkles such as this one.

They also have mixed ‘Wide Reject’ and ‘Spain’ into out of bounds plays such as below.

This play ends up becoming ‘Wide Reject Get Spain Leak’. They try and bring Buddy Hield off a wide ball screen. They’ll sometimes run ‘wide dribble’ where Hield flips it back to Haliburton. Charlotte knows this and denies it, so Haliburton chases his own handoff (Get Action) and they flow into a Spain PNR where Buddy Hield leaks out. This is a common read Rick Carlisle has used before. He’s had two lead guards with such gravity that the back screen often doesn’t need to be set for the play to work.

Indiana will also get into Spain Pick-And-Rolls out of double stagger screens. Like Wide ball screens, we should class Double Staggers as ‘the easy stuff’. Here’s just a very brief example of what allowing these easy quick hitters might look like. Indiana runs ‘Strong Dribble’.

As you can see, this isn’t exactly hard labour for the Pacers. The Wizards allow the free catch and the play gives Tyrese Haliburton easy momentum for a pick-and-roll. This isn’t exactly something you want to make Indiana not have to work hard for.

These are also commonly top-locked by teams because of Indiana’s shooting talent. They have many reads out of their staggers and though they don’t always lead to instantaneous shots, they are still effective. Here we see ‘Strong Reject Spain’.

DeAnthony Melton is glued to Haliburton, so he drifts inside and becomes the back screener in a Spain Pick-And-Roll set. Melton sees Embiid not showing any kind of help so he has to cover the driving lane which leaves Haliburton open. Notice the sheer panic when this happens. Haliburton’s a special shooter. He didn’t receive the ball on the Wide Reject Spains above but above is an example of what the defense thinks when he does receive the ball after leaking out.

In a recent game against the Sixers, they meshed this concept into something different. I label it ‘Strong Reject Wide Dribble Lob’. Naming doesn’t matter, but watch how mean this play is.

Haliburton is top-locked so he flows to the other side of the court. Obi Toppin who was an original screener, receives a wide ball screen. He flips it back to Bruce Brown (Dribble), but watch Haliburton. He this time sets a back screen for Obi Toppin who had ghosted after flipping the ball to Brown. It ends with a lob for Obi Toppin which only ever ends with one result. Though this isn’t a core or common play, it just shows the versatility and creativity Indiana has with their off-ball screening actions. It also showcases Haliburton’s work ethic, the ability to buy into off-ball screening. Not every star does this and it’s great to see Haliburton doing it. Using him as a screener as opposed to trying to force him onto the ball maintains the egalitarian motion offense Rick Carlisle is trying to run.

They also have another counter from their strong reject series. ‘Strong Reject Ram 77’

Buddy Hield is being top locked, so he goes under the screens and sets the first of two on ball screens (77). Though the play doesn’t instantly get a bucket, the constant activity occupies all defenders and allows Andrew Nembhard to create a bucket off the dribble. Also note Hield and Turner setting a freelance double stagger, and Obi Toppin making a great backcut. This Pacers team makes a lot of smart off-ball reads that make their offense even scarier and harder to defend. Others create advantages, but guys who can elongate and eventually hammer home these advantages matter. It’s another great counter when the easy stuff is taken away.

They have another counter from their strong series. It comes in the form of ‘Oklahoma’ Action. This is part of the double drag series that involves a double drag where after setting an on ball pick, the second screener turns round and sets a screen for the first screener.

Though this doesn’t necessarily fit the criteria for reject, it’s clear Hield is going to get any kind of a shot off the initial stagger screens. So he becomes the first screener in a double drag. Jalen Smith then turns and gives Hield an off-ball screen in Oklahoma Action. This is such a diverse offense with multiple counters. Taking away the ‘easy stuff’ is becoming more common, but Indiana’s mix of diverse counters and smart ball handlers means the second and third reads become easy stuff.

Indiana needs very little excuse to get into any actions they love. They will get into their Spain PNR straight from an out of bounds play like below.

The Pacers are capable of scoring on the easy stuff, but to them, the more complex plays become the easy stuff. They get into their core plays early and often and it’s why this offense is historically great.

Pistol, Doom and Zoom

If you’re trying to collect the greatest hits of any NBA Coach, Pistol and Zoom are always going to be on the agenda. Indiana loves guard screening more than any other team. Per a source with Second Spectrum, no team utilises more guard screens then Indiana. Every team in the NBA uses Pistol entries. And Indiana’s guard screens are not limited to pistol. But think as Pistol guard screening actions as just the tip of the Iceberg for Indiana.

Here’s the most basic look of it.

Pistol entry for Nembhard on an empty side. A simple ball reversal ends in Zoom (Chicago) action that eventually flows into an empty-side action. Per a Second Spectrum source, the Pacers rank inside the top 10 for the frequency of empty-side screening actions. They push them early and had the option twice on this one play.

They also utilise the base ‘Pistol Flare’ action.

This play works because it uses a very effective screen (more on that later) to clear out help defense and stop teams loading up on aggressive strong-side overloads. With the sheer pace that Haliburton operates at, instant advantages are created. Here the play ends with a Myles Turner three. He’s shooting 40 percent on these shots this year. The swinging hypothetical for this team feels as if it will be centered around Turner’s three-point efficiency.

The pistol touches aren’t anything groundbreaking, but like their wide and strong series I like some of their reads and counters. They like to run what I call ‘Doom’ Action, which is simply a cool name for Double Zoom Action. Meaning instead of one screen, you receive two before coming off the handoff. It can also be called Chicago Extra.

Tyrese Haliburton pitches the ball and then sets a screen for Buddy Hield to come off and collect a handoff. The concept doesn’t lead to an immediate shot but it more showcases their offensive philosophy. Constant motion in 5-out looks. No wasted seconds or waiting for stuff to develop. Just constant pass and move basketball. They’ll also get into the action out of ‘Flip’ as they do below.

Flip is a simple concept to get pretty much any player involved, and meshing it with a concept that gets Haliburton starting the play off-ball is excellent scheming. With many teams choosing to invert personnel and just trying to dictate where defenders have to be, you will see a rise in this doom look.

Zoom is a good platform to get the defense moving, but also to get your own players moving. Here’s a play showcasing how Indiana’s fundamentals fit into the actions overall effectiveness.

Constant ball reversals but action with a purpose. The purpose is quite simple. The Pacers are trying to stop gap help as often as possible. Zoom action quite often achieves this purpose, but mixing a flare screen in on the weakside makes the action even harder to defend because the first gap helper (Robert Covington) gets flared by Buddy Hield. It gives Bennedict Mathurin some extra space to work with.

Another way to dissuade gap help is by using the ‘weakside flip’

You can see the Jazz defense zeroed in on the Zoom Action. Teams like to try and congest the slot to deter Chicago Action. But you can see the low man (Keyonte George) is also expecting a flare. The weakside Flip of the screen from Bennedict Mathurin gives Haliburton an extra step which is a gigantic advantage for a player of Haliburton’s level.

Every NBA team runs pistol, it’s not a newsflash. But I hope explaining why it works somewhat adds to the discourse.

Flare Screens, Ghost Screens and other Tidbits

Rick Carlisle’s teams also use guard screens heavily. Sometimes this is to hunt specific matchups. But if you are playing for him, you are going to work offensively. There is no such thing as low usage in the way Rick Carlisle coaches. He expects you to do stuff. His teams utilise both actual guard screens and ‘ghost’ screens.

The Pacers run ‘Iverson Out’. Normally this is run with a big as the screener. But Rick Carlisle wants to get Zach LaVine in the action so Nesmith is the screener. Simple stuff, but has to be noted that Rick Carlisle teams do this at a well above average rate. He once countered a Ty Lue playoff adjustment where Lue put Ivica Zubac on Dorian Finney-Smith to have him as a constant weakside helper, by just running every pick and roll set with Finney-Smith as a screener. This is a philosophy of his, you work and you screen.

They love ghost screens as a team. Here they have two on one possession which ends with Bennedict Mathurin getting an empty side all to himself.

Note how Mathurin sets a ghost screen himself before getting one to give him a look from his area of the floor. It’s a further reminder of how these players put in work off the ball.

I also like how Indiana involves their guards in ‘double drag’ actions, known as 77 Action.

Here they use Tyrese Haliburton as the second screener. Like the Spain plays earlier, this does scare the defense. It’s opened up heavily by Indiana’s variety of smart ball handlers, but part of it is also Rick Carlisle’s philosophy. You will be involved.

They’ll mix ghost screens into their late-game offense.

The Pacers use Haliburton as a fake flex screener then have him dart to the top of the key. Buddy Hield ‘ghost screens’ for him and the initial separation eventually leads to an open bucket.

Here’s why ghost screens work. It attacks good defensive practices. Players will position themselves high to try and delay the ball handler.

Gordon Hayward is showing at the level, but when Hield ghosts the screen he has to go with him because of his shooting gravity. This creates a corner for Tyrese Haliburton. An easy answer is to switch this action but this is also a big reason Carlisle loves incorporating guard screens into his base motion offense. It’s not got the normal sluggishness of switch hunting if you mesh it into your plays.

This takes me to the final, and perhaps most important part of the article. The Indiana Pacers love flare screens. We have many screens in Basketball, dozens of them. But with the way modern NBA defenses are operating, the Flare Screen might be the most important one in the League. Let’s explain why.

Though there are 30 NBA teams who all have slightly different defensive philosophies, there are a few constants across most of the NBA. These are ‘No Middle’, and nail help. These go slightly hand in hand as it’s tough to deny the middle without nail help. But these are the cornerstones for most NBA teams. Flare screens are the most effective screen to attack these.

Indiana runs ‘iverson out’ for Tyrese Haliburton. He is important to explaining this play. More often than not, teams like to load up on empty-side actions because they are so difficult to defend. When you add someone such as Tyrese Haliburton to the equation it’s downright terrifying. Teams will load up on early help early in the shot clock as they do here.

There are four players watching a two-man action. This isn’t bad defense, it’s by design. It’s where no middle comes in. If Jordan Clarkson is on Bruce Brown like he would be in a traditional defense, Tyrese Haliburton is almost certainly going to get to the middle. No Middle has always been a preference for coaches such as Tom Thibodeau, but it feels as if it’s become the rule in modern NBA defense. It’s non negotiable. Below is why the flare can beat this.

If a defense is defending with a sort of zonal concept (overloading the strong side), then a flare screen can attack it. Myles Turner lingering inside the arc as opposed to being on the three-point line obviously helps, but it’s not required. It is almost a way to protect your core offense and empty-side actions. Remind the nearest nail helper that if he glances too far, he’s going to get flare screened.

In an era where teams genuinely are just loading up on primary guys and trying to rob you of vertical drives into the paint, the flare screen is more important than it’s ever been. The achilles heel of a flare screen comes with regards to how much skill the person catching the ball has as both a shooter and a driver. With Indiana having so many ball handlers, they’re extra effective.

Will Hardy’s Utah Jazz also use the concept, notably to support empty-side actions.

These are embedded into Indiana’s offense. They don’t just come during set plays. Below is an example.

Tyrese Haliburton goes into a pick-and-roll. Myles Turner sets a flare screen that would give Aaron Nesmith a wide-open three if Hali decided to use it. If you think I’m over exaggarating these flare screens, just know I’m not. Not every team does these, and there certainly aren’t many teams with them embedded into their basic off-ball reads. They’re automatic.

Aaron Nesmith in particular is a really active screener in freelance or broken situations. The play below illustrates this.

TJ McConnell pushes in early offense to no avail. Nesmith receives the ball, plays the skip pass then ghost screens for Tyrese Haliburton and pops off a flare screen to the empty corner. This leads to easy ball movement for a bucket on the inside. Ghost screens and flare screens are a major part of this offense and mixing them into the same play is never a bad idea.

On this play, Bennedict Mathurin uses the gravity of Tyrese Haliburton to his own advantage. He briefly sells a flare screen which forces Jordan Clarkson to stay inside (no middle), then he actually ghosts the screen and gets a wide open three. Again, watch the flare screen on the weak side of the play. It’s just automatic with this team.

As I’ve noted previously, Indiana have counters upon counters. They even have these for flare screens. It involves actually setting fake flare screens and incorporating them into their offense. Here’s an example.

The Pacers go into a pick-and-roll, and again you see the weakside flare screen designed to occupy any potential help defenders. The Wizards play it which gives the environment required for ‘veer’ action to work. On this occasion the flare was really a decoy designed to create space for the veer action. They’ll run this for both Buddy Hield and Bennedict Mathurin and it was part of their playbook last season.

Wrapping Up

Overall, the Pacers offense is pretty special. This is a team that has acquired an insane amount of high-feel players and built the correct system around them. It’s an offense that is basically running all the greatest hits of modern basketball offenses, but running them better than everyone else.

There is a common theorem amongst coaches regarding the attitude of ‘plays can be stopped, but concepts can’t’. I don’t fully agree with this sentiment, because sometimes you need to run the right plays for your concepts to shine through. Indiana are a team who support my theory on this. What they do might look easy to replicate, but the Cruyff-like simplicity with which they play does not correlate with it taking little effort. It is a result of having acquired an amount of feel across the roster that many teams have never had. This hasn’t happened by accident, it’s what they’ve built towards. Replicating this or trying to be a copycat, may end up being a fools’ errand.

The post Rick Plays the Hits: The Concepts Fueling the Indiana Pacers’ Leading Offense appeared first on Swish Theory.

After being a lottery choice by the Boston Celtics and beginning to establish a rotation spot at the end of his sophomore season, he was dealt over the offseason to the Indiana Pacers as part of a package for current Trailblazers guard Malcolm Brogdon. Not only did he have to change cities, but a particular tweet set something off inside him.

In the reactionary culture of disrespect and inhumanity that is NBA aggregation social media (led by the bright minds at Bleacher Report, in my opinion), a former lottery pick beginning to break out was boiled down to a Spongebob meme.

Nesmith took this personally, determined to make Bleacher Report look silly for the disrespect they sent his way.

As he begins his second season in Indiana, having secured a 3-year/$33M contract extension, Aaron Nesmith is far more than a paperclip and some string.

Offense Overview

Nesmith is beginning to see a defined offensive role with an up-and-coming Indiana squad. He’s the guy who occupies the corners as a shooting threat, relocates and lifts to the wings when the offense calls for it and slashes to the rim if the defense sells too hard to stop his shot. His shot chart on Cleaning the Glass reflects this development of his role:

He’s been firm from deep since arriving in Naptown: 39.3% from the corners on 168 attempts, and 36.6% on 194 attempts above the break. That’s not going to break the defense by any means. But when teams are keyed in on Tyrese Haliburton‘s on-ball creation and Buddy Hield‘s off-ball movement, a strong corner guy who can lift is an important complementary piece. Let’s look closer at how his shooting role has blossomed.

Developing Shooting Versatility

It’s important to start with the form. Nesmith has quietly turned up the speed on his shot, moving from 1 to 1.5x speed like an ADHD-laden podcast listener. This has opened up a further tree of shots he can get off as the contest arrives.

Jordan Poole is sagging slightly off Nesmith in the corner, but it’s still a tight window to get the release off before the shot contest arrives. The speed of the release works to create a more open shot that a slower gather would turn into a contested one.

He doesn’t necessarily have to hit the turbo button on ALL of his releases. When he has an extra beat to step into a shot, he knows when to take it in order to compose himself.

Beyond spotting up from the corners and the occasional spot-up wing 3, Nesmith shows a knack for when to lift and relocate, opening himself up to easier passes and making reads simpler for the ballhandlers.

The initial Myles Turner screen for Buddy Hield‘s flare gets nowhere with Jevon Carter blowing it up, so they flow into a middle dribble handoff with Nesmith in the strong corner. Drummond plays in a higher drop, meaning DeMar DeRozan will tag from the strong corner. Aaron reads this fluidly, knowing that lifting from the corner will create an easier read for Hield. If he stuck in the corner, DeRozan would have a chance of deflecting the pass. Even though the shot is missed, that is quality process from a young wing to make life easier for his cohorts.

Here’s another example below of reading his man and how to manipulate:

With Georges Niang guarding him, both Nesmith and Jalen Smith realize a little movement can go a long way. Smith comes to set the flare as the offense begins to flounder, timing it well with the Bruce Brown middle drive. Tristan Thompson, not known for being fleet of foot, is unable to get out to get a quality contest as Niang dies on the screen. Cash from the break.

I’ve also enjoyed what Nesmith’s shooting combined with his functional strength as a screener can open up for the offense. Here’s another possession taking advantage of the Georges Niang matchup, this time directly in the action:

Niang flashes on the ball to deter Haliburton and let Isaac Okoro, knowing he will get destroyed if he fully switches the screen. The good screen forces a long flash, and Nesmith fades across the top of the arc, drawing a long closeout from Niang in recovery. A nice jab step makes Georges think about the drive, opening up a clean look that he bottoms. That’s some excellent leverage of his shooting ability to accentuate the danger that Tyrese brings to the floor.

Here’s a different example of screening for Haliburton in order to test the switching of the defense. Charlotte likes switching with their smaller lineups and is also determined to deny Haliburton’s scoring. With the side cleared for the screen action, Nesmith comes to screen and fades to the corner. PJ Washington doubles early trying to help out LaMelo Ball, so Hali floats it to the corner as Mark Williams is forced into the long closeout (due to the cleared side). Nesmith has time to compose himself before splashing from the corner.

Though he doesn’t exactly have a long leash to handle on the ball, there are small glimpses of dribble threes when called for. With former Vanderbilt teammate Darius Garland trying to close him out in the corner, Aaron sees the desperation closeout coming and uses a slick dribble relocation to get himself a better shot:

Nesmith doesn’t have the most prolific midrange game (36th percentile amongst forwards last season), but he shows quality coordination and a package of moves to get there when the offense calls for it. Even if it’s just 1 shot per game on average, it serves to keep the defense guessing.

Granted, we are only 1/8th of the way through the season, but a scorching 46% mark from deep (54% corners, 38% ATB) is going to force defenses into some tough decisions. He’s exploring what he can do off movement and relocation to boot, a great sign that we are headed for a breakout perimeter scoring season. It also serves to open up what has been the most impressive part of his game:

Loud Drives

Going into this article, I really expected to see a mixed bag here. I was absolutely floored by what I saw on the tape. You rarely expect a “closeout attacking” guy to pop, but my eyes were flying at the screen like a Looney Tune.

What struck me the most was the incredible balance he shows while flying into the paint from the corners, often at full speed:

Navigating the baseline without taking charges and getting these kinds of finishes impressed me to a high degree. I couldn’t find drives where he pressed too hard or predetermined when he was going to drive either, which is a major sign. He’s quickly reading and reacting to how the defense plays his shot and choosing his spots to drive based on those reads.

That kind of selectivity was also present on non-corner drives. He knows when to press his advantage against an unsettled or subpar defender, and has enough handle to beat them:

Catching Jaylen Brown (he’s not a good defender – wake up, sheeple) flat-footed and drawing the foul is impressive. Going after Kristaps Porzingis with the rim protection drawn out and using the rim to shield a tough reverse finish is superb awareness and execution.

Nesmith’s creation off the drive (creation in general, really) doesn’t jump off the page. He has one of the lowest assist rates amongst all forwards, but there are momentary flashes of playmaking excellence based on how the defense defends his drives.

There are moments where the aggression delivers something spectacular, as you see on this corner drive:

Indiana coach Rick Carlisle has leveraged this success on the drive into quick, repeatable offense for Nesmith by running dribble handoffs. Giving Aaron momentum and playing off the leverage that his shot creates has generated some very nice results so far in the young season.

Notice how the “delay” action from Jalen Smith clears a side for the handoff, putting the potential help right in front of Nesmith and allowing him to read with ease as he powers to the cup. That’s how you put things on a plate for a young potential creator.

Another instance of powering right through the perimeter dig, only this time Nesmith is presented with a much tougher task of finishing over Evan Mobley. Aaron hits him with a drag step to put the DPOY candidate behind the play and finishes high off the glass for good measure.

This part of Nesmith’s game gets me incredibly excited for his future. Being a guy who shoots well from outside and can slash from time to time already keeps you on the floor. Running a DHO now and then in addition to some strong mismatch attacks on the drive takes him to the next level of offensive utility. What can he unlock next?

Now, let’s dig into the last major area of offensive strength:

Glass Crashing

You want to talk excitement? Watch Aaron Nesmith going for an offensive rebound in a crowd.

Flying in from the perimeter, fighting through a boxout, or just flat-out wanting it more than the other guy. There are a lot of different ways that Nesmith can win on the glass.

I would be remiss if I didn’t put in this play I titled “attempted murder” in my clips folder:

If someone tried doing this to me at a 24-Hour Fitness, I would be compelled to throw hands just to regain some of my honor. Granted, I would only make a further ass out of myself, but it’s the principle of the thing.

At 6’6″, Nesmith is in the 57th percentile of forwards this season in terms of offensive rebounding. Though not on elite levels, he is usually much shorter than his counterpart, so he has to find creative ways to win. The fact that he does it at a well above-average level is nothing to sneeze at.

The top 8 lineups Indiana uses Nesmith in, according to total possessions, all involve him playing the 4. A league-average team offensive rebounding rate is roughly 27%; six of those eight Nesmith lineups clear that threshold, with the most used lineup pulling down 35% of their own misses. Obviously, there are four other guys out there helping with that number, but the common throughline is Aaron’s infectious energy and effort.

Growth Areas

Right now, Nesmith slots in as a quality off-ball wing with plenty of shooting, a splash of driving, and a strong nose for the ball on the offensive glass. At 24 years old and locked in with his team for at least the next three seasons, the question becomes what else he can add.

First and foremost, I’d like to see Nesmith add more midrange counters to his attacks. As you can see from the shot chart earlier, it’s threes, rim attempts, or nothing. Granted, those are the two most valuable shots. That doesn’t mean a midrange attempt from him would be a bad shot if attacking the closeout in front of the help defense, or making the defense pay for a deep drop on his dribble handoffs. Nesmith hasn’t been the highest-quality midrange shooter throughout his young career, especially in the shorter-range looks, but some extra repetition would be a boon. If anything, it would just make the defense think twice and open up more rim looks.

Another thing you may have noticed, concerning his finishing attempts, is that very few of them come with the left hand. This has severely limited his available tree of finishes; though he can make tough reverse finishes going around the rim or inverted finishes on the left side of the rim, it would be nice to see some development on that end. This would also enable Indiana to run some of the current DHO looks from the right wing of the floor, so he can dribble left-handed into the rim and use his left for finishes. Without it, defenses can key in on his tendencies and will have an easier time preventing his effective looks in the paint.

Lastly, I’d like to see an improved sense of playmaking from Aaron. He can create well by getting downhill and collapsing the defense, but he needs to mix in more passes on those drives. Sure, he can finish really well even with multiple defenders committed, but he tends to miss layoff passes or kickouts to the high-quality shooters on the team. That would be an extra layer to add that helps him take the next leap offensively.

Now, let’s dig into the less glamorous side of the ball.

Defensive Overview

The defensive catch-alls are tough to parse out with Nesmith. Indiana currently has the second-highest pace of any team in the league, and surrenders the second-most points per game with the fourth-worst defensive rating around. The ridiculous offense has turned them into a good team, but it makes it more difficult to figure out who is helping this defense keep things together (if you can call it that) vs. who is actively harming it.

To me, Nesmith solidly falls in the former group. Indiana concedes just north of 120 points per 100 possessions with him on the floor, but underneath that are some strong lineups. Three of the five most common Nesmith lineups that Indiana uses have a defensive points per 100 of 106.7 or lower; that 120 mark is being reached because of the second most common lineup, which features a Tyrese Haliburton/Bennedict Mathurin backcourt that concedes over 150 points per 100. Below is an approximation of what Hali/Benny perimeter stopping feels like.

I won’t pontificate too much on why Nesmith is better than the numbers would suggest. Let’s look deeper at the film.

On/Off Ball Event Creation

On subpar defensive teams, creating steals and blocks is a major tool to keep their heads above water. It serves both to cover for mistakes and juice the transition offense, which for Indiana is quite good. Since Nesmith’s arrival, he has been strongly above-average in defensive event creation. Last season, his steal and block rates were 63rd and 67th percentile (respectively) amongst forwards, and he is on a similar track through the start of this season, creating 2.1 defensive events per 75 possessions.

The steals are far more sustainable given his length (+6 wingspan) and overall hustle. He’s able to generate some of these simply by getting hands in passing lanes that others could not reach with his size.

Nesmith is disciplined about keeping his arms up to prevent passing windows and has quick hands to disrupt ballhandlers when the opportunity presents itself. Many of the steals are generally born out of hustle. Nesmith was highly regarded for his motor coming into the draft, and you rarely catch him with his foot off the gas pedal.

Look at the score on that clip. This kind of hustle will endear you to coaches, and make opponents resent you, which is a great spot to be in as a defender.

I also enjoyed the block creation from Nesmith. His sense of timing, verticality, and a dash of explosive athleticism have produced some defensive virtuosity.

The last possession impressed me the most. With Myles Turner switched out on the perimeter, Nesmith represents the last-ditch defense for a 5-out pick-and-roll with Paul Reed. Aaron gets himself in position at the last second for a do-or-die shot contest in the restricted area. You wouldn’t fault him for wrapping up Reed and forcing him to get points at the line in this scenario. Instead, he meets Reed at the apex with verticality to force a tougher finish and prevent the points entirely. That’s the goods right there.

There are other instances of Nesmith being a heady defender, working through switches to contain the opposition and still managing to create events:

This is a nice set by Cleveland. Caris LeVert sets the initial backscreen to force the switch from Andrew Nembhard off Darius Garland, which acts as window dressing for LeVert cutting into an empty lane. One hiccup: Nesmith reads it, peels off Garland once LeVert is committed to the roll, and packs the shot off the backboard. That’s a blend of athleticism and awareness that makes me giddy.

With Indiana struggling to form a good defense, Nesmith continuing to spin gold out of twine is going to be necessary. This is especially true with his off-ball creation, as teams will continue to attack Haliburton and Mathurin with gusto, and they need someone other than Myles Turner to clean up the mess.

Perimeter Stopping

We’ve established that Nesmith is a great vertical and straight-line athlete, but perimeter stopping takes more on the margins to really stand out. Quick feet and quicker hips are the keys that unlock a true stopper. Aaron has showcased that he has both in spades on several occasions.

On the above play, his hips are initially opened to the left anticipating a screen, but Strus rejects it in the hope that he can catch Nesmith a step late on the empty side. However, Aaron is too quick, closing down space in a split second and sticking to the drive to force a tough floater attempt. Not on his watch.

Here’s another example of those hips in action:

He’s no Shakira, but that is some quality hip movement. He does end up a step high after the second flip which gives Terry Rozier a window for the drive, but this is where the athleticism and length can make up for small positioning mistakes. That is a common theme of his perimeter game: physical tools making up for small mistakes.

He angles his hips the wrong direction on the above play against Malaki Branham, a similarly explosive athlete. But he’s able to flip himself back in the right direction after realizing the error, moving his feet well and using that off arm to force a tough attempt at the rim. Again, the benefits of having that 7-foot wingspan.

That athleticism/length combination also serves him well in trail defense. As his screen navigation is still a work in progress, he finds himself behind the play quite a bit, but has a unique ability to get himself re-involved even after being detached with a good screen:

What impressed me the most was the variety of matchups Nesmith is asked to take on. With Indiana employing lots of switching in lineups with him at the 4, he often found himself on much bigger players that could put the ball on the deck. I was surprised at how well he contained those matchups.

Though the above play ends in a foul, I still think he does a great job embracing Giannis’ physicality in order to force a tougher shot. Most wings would simply end up having a dunk land on their head, so credit where credit is due.

It generally feels like teams are figuring out “how can we beat this guy?” in a variety of ways. In this instance, Gordon Hayward tries to win by backing down Nesmith:

Look how focused Nesmith is on keeping Hayward out of the restricted area. He’s getting low to establish leverage, moving his feet to cut off angles, and using that off hand to prevent a layup while using the inside hand for further leverage. Outstanding stuff there.

This isn’t to say he is without mistakes. Nesmith is still working on his angles and how to set up initially to contain drives. It certainly gets him in trouble at times.

This is a problem that shows up often when screens are present on the handler he is trying to contain. To me, that is his biggest area of growth to work on as a perimeter stopper. He needs to work on feeling the screen coming, getting himself in the proper position to deny the easy looks, and being proactive with his screen nav instead of reactive. Anticipate, adapt, overcome. That’s the name of the game.

Now, on to the last portion of his defensive game that caught my eye.

Strength/Length Enabling Switching

We saw above how Nesmith’s functional strength and wingspan advantages help him contain bigs that can put the ball on the deck. But what happens when the bruisers of the league get him on a switch and try to back him under the basket?

You’ve probably guessed, given the tenor of this article: it doesn’t go well for the bigs.

They can clear a side, take away all the help they want, and put their biggest guy in the post on him. It doesn’t seem to matter. The low leverage he creates, combined with the aforementioned strength, means Nesmith is not easy pickings for even the most adept post-up bigs. The season is young, but players are only 2/8 when testing Aaron in the post, good for 0.73 points per possession.

But, this isn’t to say that Nesmith is perfect by all accounts. This brings us to our last section, covering both offense and defense.

Brain Farts

Nesmith is prone to some lapses in judgment on both ends. There are also some general miscues that can be tough to explain at times.

On the offensive end, Nesmith can get a little carried away at times, leading to some head-scratching turnovers.

You could have called two separate travels there in all likelihood. Talk about happy feet.

Then you have this one, where frankly I’m not sure what the plan was:

There are smaller lapses too. This one felt like an NFL receiver looking upfield before he secures the catch:

It doesn’t help that he gets behind the play by hesitating momentarily, leaving his teammate alone to handle the 2v1 fast break.

On the defensive end of the floor, Nesmith has a serious problem with pump fakes. He’s not the first or the last young perimeter defender with that issue (heck, even some of the olds still have it) but it feels like every single one works.

It’s not the worst, but it’s something to monitor as he takes on more defensive responsibility. At the pace that Indiana plays at (see what I did there?), guys are going to be flying around. He needs to learn to keep himself in check and play under more control, but without sacrificing the aggression that makes him so good.

Instances like the one below were also common. X-ing out the wing shooters is basic stuff for a wing defender, even one as young as Nesmith. He can’t afford to be consistently late in recognizing it and doing his duty:

Some of these brain farts are just funny, some are a bit more concerning. Having some lapses now and then is fine, but the out-of-control turnovers, biting on fakes constantly, and failing to X-out can be real problems. It’s something worth monitoring going forward.

Speaking of…

Future Outlook

It’s possible Nesmith never rises above the level of a strong rotation player or 4th/5th starter. But that’s more than fine considering what Indiana is paying him (roughly 7% of the cap over 3 years), and what he was acquired for.

There are two NBA misconceptions at play here. One, development isn’t linear. Some guys take a while to find it, some hit the ceiling early and continue chugging on at a certain level. It’s often very difficult to predict either.

Second, a late lottery pick turning into a rotation guy isn’t a disappointment by any means. The Pacers bought low on him in the Brogdon trade, and have seen a strong return on that investment. Even if Nesmith caps out at where he is already, that’s still a great piece to have.

This isn’t to say that Nesmith has reached his ceiling. A breakout in terms of expanded offense and true lockdown defense might be in the cards, and I am inclined to think more is coming if the shooting breakout continues. He has all of the physical tools in his bag and has shown a lot of awareness on both ends of the floor. Guys like that have very few limits and will go as far as they want to go.

Aaron Nesmith is one of the more entertaining role player watches in the league, and as the star of Tyrese Haliburton and the Pacers (hopefully) continues to rise, there will be more eyes on their two-way wing. I, for one, am extremely excited to see where he goes from here.

The post Finding a Role: Aaron Nesmith appeared first on Swish Theory.

In this piece, Swish Theory contributors look at exactly that. We reflect on our “favorite” misses, those who have taught us the most along our various hoops journeys.

Matt Powers

Jayson Tatum.

While I was much less tuned into the draft, mostly highlight scouting until 2020, I still took pride in making a quick board or a friendly wager with friends regarding prospect outcomes. Jayson Tatum has a lot that I look for in a prospect, a smart defender with skill, green flag production and a great athlete. But, reader, I did not buy the shot. The aesthetics of the Duke motion got under my skin in a way I could not explain, a two-motion release that involved often violent gathers and flaring out on release. I let this issue cloud my overall opinion of the now consensus star for the Boston Celtics, and, while I did not make an official board this season, had major concerns about him as a top 3 draft pick. If the shot doesn’t fall, I expected the rest of the game to crumble…or else was just so distracted by the aesthetics – not even that bad, but enough to trigger a massive red flag in my analysis.

That all was fixed within the first week of Summer League. A 34% shooter from deep in college, Tatum smoothed out his motion and generally has excelled as an athlete where, even if it didn’t improve, he likely would still be an All-Star anyways. But a career 38% on heavy volume (including 43% as a rookie) I never could have imagined. That all made the rest of his game, already strong, even easier, the undisputed leader for a consistent title contender at a young age. Better shooting meant lower thresholds for innovation in the rest of his game, exploring the studio space as a handler and passer to make consistent leaps in skill. That taught me a harsh lesson about the uncertainties of shooting, the dangers of aesthetics, the value of compounding flashes of skill and, well, sometimes it just happens.

A maxim I’ve developed is that with draft research, someone will always be higher or lower than you on every aspect of a player’s game. It’s not worth staking out ground as the guy who doesn’t believe in a player’s shot, or, on the other end, convinced they are guaranteed to be 40%+ from deep. Every scale is fluid and incremental, and a change in trajectory for one skill or trait has downstream impacts on every other one. In overanalyzing a single item, it’s likely you’re too narrow in your imagination. 

Josh Url

Willie Cauley-Stein.

Before the 2015 draft I was excited by the defensive potential of Willie Cauley-Stein (WCS). He seemed destined to be a switchable rim protector and lob threat at 7’0” 240 lbs with crazy athletic tools. Of all the centers in NBA Draft Combine history at the time WCS posted:

• The fastest lane agility drill time (better than the average score for pgs).
• The 2nd fastest ¾ sprint time.
• The highest max vertical reach (tied for 1st).

On top of the ELITE athleticism WCS looked defensively dominant for the 38-1 Kentucky Wildcats. An NBA executive even told me that WCS was THE best defensive prospect he had seen over his long career. Unfortunately, Willie’s NBA career did not play out as expected. 

Missing on WCS taught me two lessons: 

1. Even top 1% athleticism is not guaranteed to translate to NBA defensive dominance. Now, I prioritize decisive defensive decision-making over athletic tools. 
2. Most players do not get a bigger role in the NBA so it’s important to know if the player will embrace their NBA role. WCS said “The story on me going into this draft is that I’m an elite defender with a raw offensive game. In my head I’m thinking, how would you even know what I’m capable of offensively?” Self-belief is good but so is self-awareness.

Charlie Cummings

Jerome Robinson.

Okay, take a moment to laugh. I deserve it.

I learned two hard lessons with Jerome Robinson. First, don’t place stock in a couple of big games above the overarching body of work (in this case, his 24 points in Boston College’s upset of #1 ranked Duke and 46 points against Notre Dame). Before “that dawg in him” was on the radar, let alone criminally overused, that’s what I thought Jerome had.

I also failed to see how the athleticism would (or wouldn’t) translate. He simply did not have the physical tools to keep up defensively or create consistent rim pressure, and the perimeter scoring alone was not strong enough to keep him on the field. So a player I ranked 7^th when draft Twitter consensus had him 39^th unsurprisingly flopped. The career 4.5 PPG on a 43.9% eFG hit me like a shotgun to the chest.

Now I know to balance the good games scouted with the bad ones, and to value athletic tools as the ultimate “make or miss” aspect of a prospect profile. Thank you, Jerome, for the brutal lesson.

Dennis Janßen

LaMelo Ball.

Sounds weird, because I had LaMelo #1 on my board as of the draft, but it took me a long time and some outside influence to come around on him. Everybody remembers the Ball-led Chino Hills teams and especially the skinny, blonde-dyed haired LaMelo pulling up from halfcourt, scoring 90+ points in a high school game (including accusations of opposite coaches to ruin basketball in its entity). I had my fair share of reservations about LaMelo, including being heavily biased from the media coverage I got living overseas, which was mostly on the negative side.

Inefficient, broken shot, selfish, showboating without any hope he could guard anyone on an NBA floor was my broad takeaway from watching him in high school and the NBL and I missed the forest for the trees. What happened?

I started draft scouting with the 2020 cycle, was extremely clueless contextualizing player development and growth of youth players. What really opened my eyes in regard to LaMelo Ball was a piece about him from PD Web:

L A M E L O

The look behind the curtain revealed that LaMelo actually is an outer-worldly, instinctual basketballer that maybe just needs some further polish in his game. Like PD said, “All Ball all the time has not really allowed for jumper surgery, the similarities from when I first saw Melo in middle school to Chino to overseas to now are striking.” His youth career was unique in a sense of really pushing his feel and decision-making development, whilst not establishing the typical “old school” baseline of things like a constant defensive motor or visually appealing jumper. Melo is a unique prospect that required a different look at his tape I wasn’t able to have at the time. It didn’t take long for him to really beat off most of my concerns about his shot and overall efficiency, whilst being one of the most promising young ball handlers of the league.

Oscar

Sharife Cooper.

In my time as a draft scout, I’ve encountered few prospects as tempting to proclaim support for as Sharife Cooper. Coming out of Auburn, Rife presented the perfect storm of factors that made his hill one worth dying on: a wildly exciting player with several exceptionally rare traits and statistical indicators, plus with a crowd of bad faith detractors pointing to a 12 game college 3pt shooting sample as evidence of his bust potential. 

Sharife’s combination of handling ingenuity, virtuosic passing acumen and advanced finishing toolbox fueled my belief that he could be the exception to the rule for small guards making the leap to the league. His stint at Auburn was statistically unprecedented in a variety of ways: his free throw rate (.560, more than 10 FTs/40 mins), assist rate (52%!), and touch indicators (83% from the line, consistent pinpoint accuracy as a high volume lob thrower) were all gargantuan green flags for an offensive engine prospect. Many evaluators were scared off by Cooper’s poor 3pt shooting at Auburn (13/57 for a ghastly 23% mark), but I never saw this as a big issue considering his solid pre-college shooting track record and career-long proficiency from the line. Indeed, Cooper has shot a rock solid 137/379 (36%) from deep on about 7 attempts/100 possessions in his 76 G-League games to date, a mark that many of his doubters swore he would never reach only 2 years ago.

The more legitimate critique of Cooper’s game to me was always whether he could overcome the razor-thin margin for error that small guards get as inside-the-arc scorers and defenders. Two years into his NBA career, it seems like the answer to this question is a no (though I’m holding out hope that he’ll flourish in bench minutes if given the chance!).  

Ultimately, my mistake was zeroing in on what most people pointed to as Sharife’s weakest skill: his touch is good, it was always good, and any evaluator using a holistic shooting projection would have told you so at the time of the draft. But I was too quick to earmark Cooper as a lottery lock simply because I didn’t buy the primary argument of the scouts who were fading him. This is a fairly intuitive thought process: everyone seems to agree that Player X’s swing skill is shooting, I have no doubt that this player will shoot, therefore I must be higher on him than the public and should move him up my board. This is one of the pitfalls of allowing the shadow of consensus to creep into personal evaluation: perhaps if I wasn’t so familiar with Cooper’s prospect narrative as an alleged non-shooter, I would’ve examined the other potential pitfalls in his skillset with a closer eye. 

Nick

Tyrese Haliburton.

As someone who was young and just getting into scouting at the time, Haliburton slipped past my mind as a real guy in his 2020 NBA Draft Class and I believe this miss ultimately made me a better evaluator in the long run. I had major reservations with Haliburton compared to people who had him top 10 or even top 5 in that draft class. This was also the most chaotic draft cycle with the pandemic limiting games and delaying the draft until November, and also there being nearly no consensus within draft twitter. With there being no consensus as far as rankings for this draft cycle, you really had to know your stuff and if you saw a guy you really believed in, there was pretty much free reign to move him up where ever you saw fit. 

When the people that knew their stuff saw Haliburton, they saw the elite advanced stats, high feel and IQ, plus a great 3PT shooter and passer. When I saw Haliburton it was the weird jumpshot, average handle and below average ability to get to the rim that concerned me. My thinking at the time was in his best outcome, Haliburton would be a player similar to Lonzo Ball. Elite role player, good 3PT shooter and passer, great IQ but those flaws would hinder him from becoming anything above that and boy was I wrong: I knew I underrated him from just watching him his rookie year.

Some key attributes I missed on that led him to being better than I anticipated was his shot versatility and him being a 41% 3PT shooter off the bat in his rookie year. I thought he would at least need some type of adjustment with his slow load up type and having somewhat of a set shot but nope. And he was also able to get those threes off in a variety of ways that clearly showed he could handle more of an offensive load than I projected. Another key trait of Haliburton’s that I slept on was his ability to be a true point guard. While I thought he was a PG before, I projected him to be more of an off-ball PG where he would be best with a jumbo creator. Tyrese instantly showed he can handle the ball effectively and had a great deal of passing versatility that let him be more of a real creator than I anticipated. 

By missing on Haliburton: I learned to trust funky jumpshots if the touch was clearly there and if they got their shots off in a variety of ways; I learned to ease up on the comps because they can limit your view of the prospect and lead you thinking one way when you should’ve been thinking the other way; and also just to trust the feel and IQ every time. This last part helped me in the next draft class to believe in Josh Giddey and Franz Wagner, when you combine superb mental reading/understanding of the game with great skill, you get special players, simply put. 

Emiliano

Robert Woodard II.

Even though I hung out in Draft Twitter circles since 2018, the 2020 Draft was probably the first one I followed very closely.

In that class, there was a guy I had relatively high on my board (early 20s) compared to the main stream and I was pretty convinced he would have become a decent NBA player. That player was Robert Woodard II.

Standing at 6’7, with a 7’1.5 wingspan, a bulky frame and a shiny 42.9% from three he was a catchy prospect for a relatively inexperienced viewer that was trying to build and affirm his own thinking. In hindsight, that really was a youthful mistake. Woodard had interesting skills and traits but he was more of a solid 2nd round bet than a sure first rounder.

I didn’t see (or I pretended I didn’t see?) some red flags and the overall process was chaotic. I learned some meaningful lesson from that misevaluation:

Archetype isn’t everything

At the time I let the “3&D wing” label single-handedly convince me that he was “NBA ready” and deserved greater attentions.

Archetypes are easy to identify but actual skills and their level are what matters.

Don’t rely on small samples

The 42.9% from three was a really appealing component of Woodard’s profile. However, he attempted only 70 threes in his sophomore season at Mississippi State. This sample wasn’t reliable, nor was it even indicative.

Indeed, he never really find his shot at the next level: he made just the 30.4% of his threes in G League through 3 seasons (116/381, considering Regular Season and Showcase)

Scoring talent matters

In hindsight, it’s hard to find good NBA 3&Ds that were strictly low usage 3&Ds at the college level. Generally it seems easier for players with a decent offensive talent to scale down to reduced roles where they can excel. Woodard had some indicators of a certain lack of scoring talent, but his low usage (18.2%), poor free throw shooting (61.7% college career) and obvious lack of shooting volume were red flags I missed.

@BeyondTheRK 

Mo Bamba.

What ultimately separated the two unicorns of the 2018 NBA Draft were the little things that are hard to catch without watching the film. One player showed ball skills, control, instincts, traits that could realistically develop a talented prospect into a primary versatile scorer and defensive anchor rather than merely a secondary rim-rolling pick-and-pop play-finisher.

The first player flashed nearly every fundamental skill in the book: ambidextrous baby hook soft touch finishing at the rim; ISO dribble moves on the perimeter; pristine post-up footwork; deep shooting range with a unique shot release that made pull-up threes an option for a fringe seven-footer; the awareness to rotate, switch, and protect the rim on a whim. Maybe most importantly, he looked like he gave a sh*t hustling out there on both ends.

The second player impressed with improbable shooting touch for his size, rebounding well and swatting endless shots in help defense, before decompressing when it came to effort plays like setting screens, hard rim-rolls, or simply sprinting down the floor.

For these two prospects, the measurables and defensive stats left evaluators seeing similarly positive signs on paper pointing to similar signs of success:

Heights of 6’11” and 7’
Wingspans of 7’5” and 7’9”

Neither big man prospect was a strong post-up defender against bigger opposition on the block., yet Jaren Jackson Jr. and Mo Bamba finished 1st and 2nd in BLK%, DBPM, and overall BPM, while helping their collegiate teams rank Top-15 in defensive rating.

Jaren: 14.2 BLK% | 5.9 Stocks | .414 3PAr | 39.6 3pt% — 64.7 TS% — 79.7 FT%
Bamba: 13.0 BLK% | 5.2 Stocks | .189 3PAr | 27.5 3pt% — 59.3 TS% — 68.1 FT%

Mo Bamba ranked 7th in PIPM (+7.24) among all college players measured in 2017-18 and 2018-19, rating just behind Mikal Bridges (5th, +7.57) and Jaren Jackson Jr. (6th, +7.54), via Jacob Goldstein’s Player Impact Plus Minus metric.

Jaren’s main statistical profile advantages were shown in efficiency.

On top of averaging more STL+BLK (5.9) than every top big prospect in his 2018 NBA Draft class (Bamba, Carter, Ayton, Bagley), JJJ scored as efficiently across the board (65% TS%), shooting as well or better on three-point volume (.414 3PAr) and efficiency from beyond the arc (39.6% 3P%) and at the pinstripe. (79.7% FT%)

A historically impressive shot-blocker was also the best 3PT and FT shooter in his class, revealing clean postup footwork, soft finishing touch, developable ball-skills, and effective awareness to know where to be to do the little things asked of a big. While feel for the game can’t be measured, it felt like JJJ’’s feel was off the charts.

My Final 2018 Orlando Magic centric Big Board (drafting with that team in mind)

1. Luka Doncic
2. Jaren Jackson Jr.
3. DeAndre Ayton
4. Mo Bamba
5. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander
6. Mikal Bridges
7. Trae Young
8. Wendell Carter Jr.
9. Michael Porter Jr.

Ranking Jaren 2nd overall in a tier with Luka atop my big board feels like my best draft hit ever, yet one of my worst draft misses comes soon after with Bamba at 4th and Ayton at 3rd over a star-studded lottery.

While Ayton’s offensive game creates midrange mismatches and his defensive rotational effort improves when motivated, letting consensus bias win out in my thought process over the more tantalizing high-potential two-way wing and perimeter playmakers is another misevalutation here by me: A month or so before the draft, I rankted Mikal Bridges 4th, Michael Porter Jr. 5th, Mo Bamba 6th, and Shai Gilgeous-Alexander 8th.

By the time draft night rolled around, I talked myself into Bamba’s best case 3&D anchor upside over tall dynamic two-way wings Bridges’s and Porter’s instinctual versatile big wing defense, tough shot making, and outside shooting, also leaving all-star scoring creator guards Shai and Trae behind Mo as well. My Final Magic Big Board bumped Bamba up to 4th (bad) and Shai up to 5th (good), moving down Bridges to 6th (bad) and Porter to 9th (bad, partly due to back concerns).

In defense of Bamba, this Orlando Magic team was never invested in him as a starter, removing majority of opportunity for playing with starting-caliber playmakers; Mo did not log one minute on the floor with the young core of Fultz, Gordon, and Isaac. Touches were sparse as long as the offense ran through the high-usage post-up hub in Nikola Vucevic; on the other hand, any playing time Mo received tended to go to other bigs who brought more energy running the floor like Khem Birch and Mo Wagner.

I have had more glaring draft misses, as I too am waiting on the Sharife Cooper league takeover tour. I was unimpressed by the safe choice of Cole Anthony over prospects I viewed with higher ceilings, tweeted loudly about Maxey, Bane, and Poku next to Fultz and Isaac on draft night.

Drafting the wrong prospect at the top of any draft could set a team back for years; doing so in a class as historically talented as 2018 could be extremely detrimental. While 2018 remains my favorite draft class to have scouted to this day, this slight, late-process change of opinion moving a prospect up the board too late in the game based on “what-if” potential could have major consequences to a team-building process. Orlando seemingly could have moved out of their 6th pick draft slot in 2018, but rumors say they were just as excited as I was about the possibility of selecting Bamba in hopes of him reaching his ceiling as “Gobert with a three point shot”.

Mo Bamba leaves Orlando ranked 1st All-Time in BLK% (6.8%); 6th All-Time in Blocks (364); 13th All-Time in Rebounds (1,556); 37th All-Time in Points (2,037). A seven-foot play-finishing plus-rebounding help-side shot-blocking three point floor-stretcher should have a long career if offered a defined role in this league, in theory. Can Mo Bamba find a playmaker to fully unlock his game, the Chris Paul to his Deandre Jordan? The James Harden to his Ryan Anderson/Serge Ibaka?

Bamba’s Career-High 32 PTS arrived in Philadelphia against his current team, the 76ers, after dropping 5 3PM & 3 BLK in the second quarter. Could Mo still fill a shot-swatting pick-and-pop role similar to Myles Turner in the right situation?

Evidence exists for Mo to succeed in a baseline 3&D role; it’s the little things in and out of his control like effort, consistency, fit, team investment and opportunity that must align. Not living up to some hypothetical potential ceiling doesn’t mean a prospect can’t succeed as the player they end up being as long as they compete, develop, and learn winning habits to carve out a lengthy career. While Bamba’s path to “Gobert with a three point shot” grows narrower by the day, there’s hope he can stick around this league for awhile longer with the right role.

Until then, kids, please stand for the national anthem.

The post ROUNDTABLE: My Favorite NBA Draft Miss appeared first on Swish Theory.